This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is May 2.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got pro-Palestinian demonstrations on US college campuses, Chad’s presidential election, Russia Victory Day celebrations, a workers’ strike in Argentina and a court hearing for a former Peruvian president.

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Protests at US college campuses

Information compiled by Joe Veyera

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the protests underway on US college campuses. For more on that we’ve got the lead for our Americas desk, Joe Veyera. 

JIMMY: Hi, Joe!

JOE: Thanks for having me, Jimmy.

JIMMY: Joe, we’ve got an awful lot of protests going on across the country right now. No chance we’re going to get to all of them, but maybe you can start by kind of telling us how we got here. What kicked these off?

JOE: So we’ve seen campus demonstrations since the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7, but what really caused the situation to morph into this nationwide phenomenon we’re seeing now was the police response to protesters on the campus of Columbia University in New York last month. When administrators there opted to take that more forceful approach, it essentially backfired and both steeled the resolve of the students at Columbia itself and other schools across the country. And as you mentioned there’s no way we can get to all of these and as of Wednesday afternoon there were about four dozen still across the U.S., but Yale was among the first to follow, and places like the University of Texas at Austin, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and UCLA are a few of the others where we’ve seen things escalate into notable clashes.

JIMMY: And what’s the latest? How are things looking right now? 

JOE: Admittedly it’s a pretty dynamic situation and things change quickly. We saw police move to end the occupation of Hamilton Hall at Columbia on Tuesday night with more than one hundred arrests, and overnight into Wednesday we actually saw clashes between pro-Palestinian protesters and counter-demonstrators on the UCLA campus in Los Angeles that also led to arrests. Protesters also currently remain inside the library at Portland State University after a tentative deal for demonstrators to leave the building fell through, so that situation in particular may be one to watch in the coming days.

JIMMY: You know, what are these protesters seeking? What’s the end goal here?

JOE: So there’s some differences depending on the school, but generally speaking protesters nationwide have called for a ceasefire in Gaza, and for their schools to divest from companies with links to Israel.

JIMMY: What kind of reactions have you seen to these? I know there’s some pretty heated rhetoric, but what else are you seeing?

JOE: I think you can divide the school responses into three groups. There are the ones that have opted to forcefully remove encampments and protesters, like Columbia, and there are campuses that have taken a more hands-off approach with the assumption that the demonstrations will peter out on their own. But the third one I want to touch on here is what happened at Brown, which has been a really stark contrast to Columbia. There, campus officials agreed to discuss and later vote on divestment, with demonstrators agreeing to dismantle their encampment in the meantime. I do also want to mention that there have been claims of anti-semitic incidents and the targeting of Jewish students at some of the protests, including a demonstrator at Columbia heard saying “We are Hamas,” for instance, but at the same time, Jewish students have also been seen leading these protests at several schools, so I really hesitate to paint with a broad brush here, but I would be remiss not to mention it.

JIMMY: Well, before we wrap this up, what do you think folks should be watching for next?

JOE: This feels like a bit of a cop out of an answer but I think broadly speaking it’s just a matter of seeing how schools continue to respond and if students feel emboldened enough to continue or that their efforts are making a difference. But if there is one event people should follow, it is coming up on graduation season, and it will be interesting to see how schools approach their commencement proceedings. The University of Southern California for instance opted to cancel its main ceremony after opting to bar its pro-Palestine valedictorian from speaking over what it called safety concerns. Whether those concerns pop up elsewhere remain to be seen.

JIMMY: Well, Joe, always appreciate your insight into the US news and this time is no different. Thank you so much.

JOE: Anytime, Jimmy.

Chad election

Information compiled by Jimmy Lovaas

JIMMY: Chad will hold its long-awaited presidential election on Monday. Junta leader Mahamat Idriss Deby looks likely to cement his grip on power.

Deby is a four-star general who’s been serving as the transitional president of Chad since seizing power three years ago.

He had originally promised not to run for president, but recently said he would after Chadians voted for a new constitution in December that allowed him to run for the office. 

He’s facing nine other candidates, including recently-appointed Prime Minister Succès Masra. 

He won’t, however, have to face several main opposition figures as one was killed by security forces in February and two others had their applications rejected by the country’s Constitutional Council over “irregularities.”

Now, while the election was intended to serve as a transition from military rule to democracy, analysts have warned that it will likely serve as a rubber-stamp for Deby. 

Still, if no candidate receives more than 50 percent of votes cast, it goes to a runoff, which would be held on June 22.

Russia Victory Day celebrations

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: Next Thursday, Russia will commemorate the victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.

Victory Day in Russia is typically commemorated with large military parades across the country.

This year is expected to be no different.

Still, similar to last year, numerous regions within range of Ukrainian projectiles will cancel parades. 

The most notable parade will once again be held in Moscow and will feature trophies of NATO military equipment given to Ukraine that has been captured in combat.

Now, Russia celebrated Victory Day a year ago in part by launching a missile salvo at Kyiv. 

The possibility exists that Moscow could do the same this year, particularly with Russian forces in the midst of a prolonged campaign to ravage Ukrainian critical infrastructure. 

The celebration also comes as Russian forces gain momentum along the frontlines of the Donbas region. 

A string of victories over the past few weeks has raised fears that Russia could make it a priority to commemorate Victory Day with the capture of the Ukrainian stronghold of Chasiv Yar where Russia has amassed more than 25,000 soldiers.

24-hour workers’ strike in Argentina

Information compiled by Jeff Landset

JIMMY: Workers across Argentina will be going on strike next Thursday. It will be the second time this year.

The General Confederation of Labor, or “CGT”, went on strike in late January, just weeks after President Javier Milei took office. 

It came after he proposed a bill that would have vastly changed the country’s economy, including the privatization of several public companies and the imposition of taxes. 

That bill, now streamlined, has gained acceptance in the lower house but faces stronger opposition in the Senate.

Now, the CGT had gone years without calling a strike before calling for two in the five months of Milei’s presidency. 

It shows that workers in the country are not happy with his proposals to fix the economy. 

Milei’s original vision already needed to be modified because of court rulings and an inability for his so-called omnibus bill to pass Congress.

Preliminary hearing for former Peruvian president

Information compiled by Jeff Landset

JIMMY: Former Peruvian President Pedro Castillo will likely take one step closer to a trial next Thursday. That, over a failed coup attempt.

As you may recall, in December of 2022, Castillo attempted to scuttle a third impeachment trial by dissolving Congress. 

That move, widely seen as unconstitutional, led to his quick ouster after even his allies called it indefensible. 

Castillo was then arrested on his way to the Mexican Embassy in Lima. 

He was later sentenced to three years of pretrial detention and then, earlier this year, prosecutors announced they would be seeking a 34-year sentence.

Now, Castillo’s defense team is up in the air. 

During a hearing last week, he found out that his lawyers had quit, and he now has until tomorrow to hire a team, otherwise he will be assigned a public defender. 

If a trial is approved, it will likely be the most high-profile trial for a former Peruvian leader since Alberto Fujimori’s human rights trial. 

It also would be a warning shot at Castillo’s former vice president Dina Boluarte, who – as the current president – is facing an investigation over the procurement of several Rolex watches worth thousands of dollars.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode included work from Factal editors Alex Moore and Jeff Landset. Our interview featured editor Joe Veyera and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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