This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is July 4.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got Hurricane Beryl in the Caribbean, elections in Iran and France, officials from the Philippines and Japan meeting in Manila and a NATO summit in Washington, D.C. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Hurricane Beryl

Information compiled by Jeff Landset

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the hurricane currently wreaking havoc in the Caribbean. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Jeff Landset.

JIMMY: Hello, Jeff. 

JEFF: Hi, Jimmy. 

JIMMY: Well, Jeff, it was just a couple of weeks ago that we saw the first named storm of the season, but now we've got an even bigger storm causing all sorts of problems. What can you tell us about Hurricane Beryl?

JEFF: Sure, yeah, Hurricane Beryl is obviously the second named storm of the season, but it was also the first hurricane and the first major hurricane of the year. It has broken all sorts of records. It is the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record – it actually beat the old record by 16 days. And so far, at the time of this recording, it's already made one landfall, but by the time you hear this, it may have made a second or a third. That first landfall was in Carriacou Island, Grenada. It was a Category 4 at the time of that. It caused major damage there and all over the Lesser Antilles – Places like St. Vincent, Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago. And some of the effects of that also caused damage and flooding in Venezuela. So as a result, several people have died -- at least eight -- and it's caused millions of dollars in damage, potentially up to even $1 billion in damage already. And it's almost, not even halfway through its track.

JIMMY: And what's the latest? How are things looking right now?

JEFF: Sure, it has moved past Jamaica. There was some thinking throughout this process that it would make landfall in Jamaica, however, that did not happen. So, at the time of this recording, there have been some damages and destruction through Jamaica. We have seen lots of flooding. We have seen several power poles falling. We've seen videos, that I've posted on Factal, of roofs being ripped off by those heavy winds. So, right now, Jamaica is going through it and they are in the process of trying to assess that damage. And as soon as they know, we'll have it on Factal.

JIMMY: Well, what type of reactions have you seen to this hurricane? What kind of responses have you seen?

JEFF: Yeah, so this has obviously, like I said, broken a lot of records. This is a really early start to the hurricane season and I think people are seeing this and they are realizing that they are in for a long hurricane season. The waters in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean are obviously very hot and warm and, you know, they are as warm as they've ever been at this time of the year, which is a recipe for disaster when it comes to these hurricanes. As for response coming ahead, you know, people are being very vigilant. People are heeding evacuation warnings and orders, but as we get into the season, and we see more and more of these hurricanes, we may actually start to see hurricane fatigue if somebody has to evacuate for a second or a third or fourth time.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks should be watching for next?

JEFF: Yeah, so right now, we're looking for where this will make landfall after making landfall in the Yucatan. That is going to happen at some point in the next few hours. And then, after that, it is uncertain. We believe, according to a lot of the models, that it will make its final landfall somewhere in Mexico or possibly Texas. But at this moment, there's nothing definitive about these models about where it will make that landfall. Obviously, the less time it spends in the Gulf of Mexico, the better. If it spends more time in the Gulf of Mexico – in that warm water – it has the potential to recharge. So, if this storm does start to track towards Texas or Louisiana, you know that it'll probably not be a very good storm for that area. But that being said, there are no real good scenarios when it comes to the storm because there's a lot of rain and some heavy winds that are associated with the storm and that has already caused death and destruction earlier in the week.

JIMMY: Well, Jeff, we'll have to pause there for today, but thank you so much for your time and for keeping us up to speed. I appreciate it.

JEFF: No problem.

Iran presidential election runoff

Information compiled by Agnese Boffano

JIMMY: Iran will hold a presidential runoff election on Friday.

The country held a snap election on June 28 after former president Ebrahim Raisi was killed with seven others in a helicopter crash in May. 

The reformist-backed Masoud Pezeshkian and the hardliner Saeed Jalili won the most votes during the election, but both fell short of securing an absolute majority. 

That round of the election saw the lowest turnout since the 1979 revolution, with the interior ministry saying only 40 percent of the more than 61 million eligible Iranians voted.

Now, although Pezeshkian secured more votes than Jalili in the first round, some analysts think the 3.4 million voters who supported another candidate are likely to defer their votes to the hardliner in the hopes of him securing the needed 50 percent majority. 

Of course, the voting boycott that affected the first round is expected to be repeated again in the second round.

That, as the population continues to be disillusioned in the aftermath of the deadly government crackdown on protests that began in September of 2022. 

Iranians are also dealing with economic hardships associated with the country's 40% inflation rate that has largely been attributed to mismanagement and sanctions.

French parliamentary runoff elections

Information compiled by Owen Bonertz

JIMMY: France will hold a parliamentary runoff election on Sunday. 

The country’s leftist and centrist liberal electoral coalitions will attempt to stave off a far-right majority in the country’s legislature. 

President Macron called the snap elections following his party’s defeat at the European Parliamentary elections. 

The first round of voting on June 30th saw the highest turnout for a National Assembly vote since 1997.

The far-right National Rally party won roughly 33 percent of all votes in that round, with the leftist New Popular Front coalition trailing behind with 28 percent and Macron’s own centrist voting bloc at about 21 percent. 

Given that no voting bloc even approached a majority of the vote, 501 out of 577 legislative constituencies have not yet chosen their deputy.

Now, while most polling indicates that National Rally will not be able to form a majority in parliament, it remains possible if French voters continue to rebel against the Macron government’s increased immigration rates and social spending reforms. 

While National Rally has undoubtedly moderated their more extreme – and anti-semitic – stances since the days of Jean Marie Le Pen, the specter of 28-year-old leader Jordan Bardella becoming prime minister has in part united the country’s leftists and centrists. 

Nonetheless, Macron’s decision to call a legislative election seems to have backfired, with the most likely outcomes either being a National Rally-controlled coalition with The Republicains party, or an ungovernable tripolar legislature with no majority voting bloc.

Philippines, Japan foreign and defense ministers to meet in Manila

Information compiled by Hua Hsieh

JIMMY: Top diplomats and defense ministers from the Philippines and Japan will meet on Monday.

The so-called 2+2 meeting in Manila is meant to bolster military ties and discuss regional concerns.

The meeting comes amid China’s growing “assertiveness” in regional waters, with confrontations between the Philippines and China increasing in the South China Sea and Japanese authorities on alert as China sends its vessels near a group of disputed islands in the East China Sea. 

As you may recall, during a visit to Manila late last year, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida announced a coastal surveillance radar would be given to the Philippines as part of the country's effort in assisting military allies in the region.

Now, the upcoming meeting is expected to focus on the negotiation of an agreement between the Philippines and Japan, which would allow troops to enter each other’s territory for training and disaster relief.

Philippines’ President Bongbong Marcos says ratification of the reciprocal access agreement would not only be significant in enhancing Japan and Philippines’ bilateral partnership, but also serve to maintain “peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region.”

NATO Summit in Washington, D.C.

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: Leaders from NATO member nations will gather in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday. The summit marks the 75th anniversary of the alliance.

Commitment to collective defense and further deterrence of Russian aggression through increased military readiness are the key themes of the gathering.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is expected to feature heavily. 

Ukraine, which recently got the green light to strike targets inside Russia with long-range Western munitions, is hoping to build momentum amid a slowdown in Russia’s recent offensive. Ukraine’s military wants further weapons support to do that. 

Of course, the surprise visit to Kyiv this week by Hungary’s Russia-friendly leader Viktor Orban may signal an easing of tensions over further aid packages for Ukraine.

Now, next week’s meeting also marks Sweden’s first NATO summit since it became a member, and it will also be the last for outgoing Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. 

Former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte will take over the alliance’s top job on Oct. 1. 

The summit is also expected to be the first outing on the global stage for whomever triumphs in Britain’s general election, which is being held today.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Agnese Boffano, Owen Bonertz, Hua Hsieh and David Wyllie. Our interview featured editor Jeff Landset and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe