This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is July 18.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got the Trump assassination attempt, the World Court opinion on Israel's occupation of Palestinian territories, Colombia’s new National Congress, Taiwan’s military exercise and The Olympics opening ceremony. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Trump attempted assassination

Information compiled by Joe Veyera

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the shocking attempted assassination of former U.S. President Donald Trump. For more on that I’ve got our North America lead, Joe Veyera. 

JIMMY: Hello, Joe

JOE: Hey, Jimmy. How’s it going?

JIMMY: It goes. You know, I cannot for the life of me imagine any of our listeners aren’t already aware of this situation, but just so we’re all on the same page, can you give us just a real brief recap on what exactly went down this weekend?   

JOE: Right, of course. So, during a rally on Saturday afternoon in Butler, Pennsylvania, a gunman opened fire from outside the venue, striking former President Trump in the ear, killing one attendee and wounding multiple others. The suspect, 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, was shot and killed by police. Bandaged ear and all, Trump appeared at the first night of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee on Monday, alongside newly-minted vice presidential pick Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, and will accept the nomination on Thursday as planned. Now, this entire event has raised major questions and concerns over how anyone could get a clear shot at a major presidential candidate, and the Secret Service has taken a lot of criticism for failing to secure the perimeter, especially after it was revealed that local police had told them in advance they lacked the resources to station a patrol car outside the building where the gunman positioned himself.

JIMMY: Alright. Now, what have we learned in the days since? What are some of the latest developments?

JOE: It’s currently unclear what motive, if any, the suspect had, but the FBI is investigating the assassination attempt as a potential act of domestic terrorism. We don’t know that much about Crooks, who is thought to have acted alone, other than he had no criminal history, he worked as a dietary aide at a nursing and rehabilitation center, and was a registered Republican who made a $15 donation to the Democratic fundraising platform ActBlue in 2021. It was also revealed in a briefing for House lawmakers on Wednesday that he had been diagnosed with a major depression disorder. The Department of Homeland Security’s inspector general has opened a probe into the Secret Service’s handling of the incident, and House Speaker Mike Johnon says a task force will be launched to investigate as well. What’s also interesting to note is that there was already increased security around the former president after recent intelligence flagged a plot by Iran to assassinate him.

JIMMY: Well, what sort of notable reactions have you seen to this?

JOE: Well, President Biden has called on Americans to reject political violence and “cool it down,” while Republicans have generally used this moment to rally around Trump heading into the convention, citing the need for party unity. But more than anything, it really is the Secret Service taking the brunt of the blame, with director Kimberly Cheatle acknowledging this "should have never happened." That hasn’t stopped Republican lawmakers from calling for new leadership at the agency. 

JIMMY: Well, I know we can’t possibly know all the things in the works here, but you know, what types of things do you think folks should be watching for in the days ahead?

JOE: First and foremost, I will be paying close attention to Trump’s remarks at the RNC to see not only if he speaks about the shooting, but if it changes his rhetoric at all — and if his posts on TruthSocial are any indication, it has and will not. And as we move closer to election day, how much tighter does security get around rallies for all candidates? This instance wasn’t a failure of screening attendees, but rather not securing the larger area surrounding the venue. I don’t know how much more information we’re going to get about the lead-up to the rally and the security preparations that went into it, but the one question that will continue to linger in the weeks and months to come is, “How does this happen?” We live in supercharged political times, and someone was able to get a clear shot at a party standard-bearer. That requires such an immense planning and communication breakdown.

JIMMY: Well, Joe, you’re right, there. And thank you so much for your time. And thank you for keeping an eye on things for us. I’m sure we’ll have you back if there are any major developments. Appreciate it. 

JOE: Of course. Anytime. 

World Court to deliver opinion on Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: The International Court of Justice will deliver its final legal opinion Friday regarding Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian territories.

The United Nations-affiliated court is the only international court adjudicating disputes between nations and providing international legal opinions. 

The ICJ opinion follows a record 52 countries presenting arguments in February about Israel’s occupation.

Now, any ICJ opinion will likely have little to no impact on Israel’s ongoing military operation in the Gaza Strip. 

That operation has been described as indiscriminate even by U.S. President Joe Biden. 

And while Israel’s air war on Gaza continues into its 10th month despite immense civilian collateral damage, violence in the Israeli-occupied West Bank continues to surge as well both as a result of Israeli military raids and extremist settler violence. 

And although Israel has historically reacted to international legal opinions by claiming bias, an ICJ ruling against Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories could exert further political pressure on Tel Aviv’s western backers.

Colombia installs new National Congress

Information compiled by Irene Villora

JIMMY: The Colombian National Congress will be installed by President Gustavo Petro on Saturday.

The ceremony marks the start of the 2024-2025 legislative year.

It will include the appointment of parliamentary commissions, the election of the Senate’s president, vice presidents and secretary general, and the oath of office of elected senators and representatives.

Now, President Petro has reassured the public that Congress won’t be closed on Saturday. That, after rumors circulated about the possible installation of a Constituent Assembly and the closure of Congress.

Those rumors emerged after civil society organizations, activists and unions affiliated with the president’s coalition government called for a rally at the capital on Saturday to endorse the social reforms enforced by the government. 

That rally has now been postponed until September.

Taiwan's Han Kuang military exercise

Information compiled by Hua Hsieh

JIMMY: Taiwan will stage its annual live-fire drill next week. 

The exercise is taking place over a five-day period starting Monday.

Under its newly appointed defense minister Koo Li-Hsiung, Taiwan’s military has announced major changes to the large-scale drill. Those include canceling live-fire routines on its main island, introducing 24-hour war simulation with non-scripted scenarios, and testing the military’s decentralized command system. 

According to the chief admiral, these changes were made to reflect criticism of past drills being “photo-ops” for the country's leadership and to better familiarize soldiers with the unpredictable nature of real war.

Now, following the inauguration of Taiwan President Lai Ching-te, China has been sending more warplanes and naval vessels across the strait. In fact, they sent a record 66 aircraft near the island last week. 

And earlier in July, the Chinese Coast Guard seized a Taiwanese fishing boat over what it called “illegal fishing” in waters near the Kinmen Islands. 

Tensions from that remain high as Chinese authorities refuse to release the boat’s five crew members. 

Finally, with pressure rising within the Taiwan Strait, experts will be keeping a close eye on efforts by both China and Taiwan to boost their military capabilities.

Olympics opening ceremony in Paris

Information compiled by Owen Bonertz

JIMMY: Athletes from all over the world will be on Paris’s Seine River next Friday night. They’ll take part in the first Olympic opening ceremony ever held outside of a stadium.

While some early matches in the archery, rugby and soccer events will begin on Wednesday, Friday night’s event will represent an ambitious new approach to the Olympic  opening ceremonies. 

More than 100 boats will sail east to west down the Seine River at sunset as fans cheer them on from the river’s banks. 

More than 10,000 athletes will be on the flotilla, representing 206 national teams. 

Meanwhile, dancers and musicians will be positioned on the numerous bridges over the river. 

The French flag delegation will be led by swimmer Florent Manadou and discus thrower Mélina Robert-Michon, but it is unclear who will light the final Olympic torch of the relay.

Now, more than 45,000 members of French security forces will be deployed over a 6-kilometer area to protect more than 300,000 expected spectators. 

At the same time, airspace will be closed within a 90-kilometer radius of the city. 

French officials are particularly wary of a rise in terror attacks on the city.

After all, an 18-year-old ethnic Chechen was arrested at the end of May for planning attacks on Olympic events. 

Another potential threat to the opening ceremonies is the high pollution levels and boating conditions in the Seine River; its choppy waters even prompted the cancellation of a rehearsal event.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Alex Moore, Irene Villora, Hua Hsieh, and Owen Bonertz. Our interview featured editor Joe Veyera and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe