This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is August 15th

In this week’s forecast we’ve got Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, a new capital city for Indonesia, the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Taiwan's navy holding drills and a possible lockout affecting the Canadian railways. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Ukraine’s ongoing incursion in Russia’s Kursk region

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at Ukraine's recent incursion into Russia’s Kursk region. For more on that I’ve got the lead for our Europe desk, Senior Editor Alex Moore.

JIMMY: Hello, Alex. 

ALEX; Hello Jimmy.

JIMMY: Well, Alex, just a few weeks ago we were talking about Russia's heaviest bombardment of Kyiv in months and suddenly we've got Ukrainians entering Kursk. Can you give us a bit of a recap on that? What's going on?

ALEX: Indeed. Yeah, happily. So last Tuesday, so early on Aug. 6, Ukraine launched a significant assault into Russia's Kursk region, which shares a border with Ukraine. The Sumy region is the Ukrainian counterpart across the border. And so we've seen over the course of the full war now a couple of limited incursions from Ukraine into Russia. I say from Ukraine, crucially, because these were almost exclusively undertaken by Russian militias that are anti-Putin and these were far lower level than what we saw last week. This was a full mechanized, mobilized, brigade-sized attack into Kursk. Ukraine wheeled mobile air defense systems in. They've introduced reinforcements into the fight. So this is a far more significant incursion into Russia by orders of magnitude than what we've seen and it's become far and away the most significant one yet since the war broke out. And what is it now, eight days later? The fight continues to be extremely heavy throughout Kursk. Ukraine has gained significant ground. Obviously, numerous caveats about how murky the situation remains and it does remain extremely fluid. This is not at all the attritional trench warfare that sort of epitomizes fighting in the east and the south, to a lesser degree. This is far more fluid. It's much more akin to the Ukrainian fall 2022 counter-offensive in Kharkiv that we saw. And Ukraine appears to have just fully caught Russia off guard. Russia essentially treated the border with Ukraine – the state border, so not the occupied Ukraine border – as sort of a dormant conflict zone. It was manned by conscripts; manned by the Akhmat brigades, the Chechens, and they appear to be totally caught off guard by a Ukrainian assault of this magnitude. So, the Ukrainians are claiming to be in control of nearly 75 settlements. Obviously, like I said, the situation is fluid and murky. We can't exactly corroborate that through third party means, but what we do know, just sort of open source triangulation, a lot of which relies upon sort of the Russian milblogger sphere, Ukraine is taking and holding significant chunks of territory in Kursk. A couple of notable places are Sudzha, which is one of the main border cities in Kursk that Ukraine appears to be largely in control of. There are still reports of Russian partisans left behind and Ukraine also has a couple of salients, the most notable one is pushing to the northwest to Korenevo, which is to the southwest of the city of Kursk. So yeah, like I said, the situation remains very fluid, but that's sort of where things are at the moment.

JIMMY: And what's the latest? Are there any new developments?

ALEX: Yeah, like I said, some key, some key late developments there. Ukraine does appear to be introducing reinforcements into the fold. So that sort of signifies that Ukraine is intent upon holding territory they're taking. I mean, I mentioned some of the previous incursions from Ukraine into Russia. Essentially, they would just cross the border a couple of kilometers and shoot some guns and skate back across the border. This is not that. This is Ukraine appearing to fortify the positions they're taking, reinforce them. What we don't see yet, which is a crucial question of mine, is how Ukraine intends to sort of resupply this incursion. Obviously, still, they are coming across their own state borders so, you know, it's not impossible, obviously, but as Russia showed us in February of 2022, it can, you know, it can be far easier said than done, creating ground lines of communication to resupply an invading force. And it's also worth noting, this was shrouded in heavy, heavy secrecy. Ukraine did a great job. They almost, in many ways, sort of mirrored the secrecy that Russia invoked in their full invasion of Kyiv back in February of 2022 where they were pulling guys off of the front lines in the east and sending them to the north for some unspecified reason, and they weren't even told what was going on until the day of in some instances. But yeah, the latest developments are that Russia's obviously cycled a lot of reinforcements themselves, some from the east, and also just from Rosgvardiya units that are nearby and stuff to sort of turn this into a more attritional gun fight, which would benefit them, as opposed to a far more fluid maneuvering war, which Russia has shown they are quite incompetent in fighting and Ukraine has actually exhibited some adept skills at

JIMMY: Well, what sort of reactions to all this have you seen? How are folks reacting in Ukraine and Russia and elsewhere?

ALEX: Yeah, like I said, it took Ukraine about a week to even acknowledge this operation, despite the fact that obviously we knew it was happening and they are since making claims now. Today, Zelensky even mentioned that it would be possible to open up a command and control center in Russia's Kursk Region. So again, that's another data point to indicate that Ukraine is going nowhere. They are going to take and hold this territory. In Russia, obviously, it's been quite negative. Some blame has been cast upon the Chechens that were there. For – this is sort of the first time that we've seen Russian conscripts. And by Russian conscripts, I'm talking specifically about the people that were mobilized in the 2022 mobilization wave. Russia has been able to bolster their manpower since then pretty well with paid contract soldiers. They're offering extremely handsome contracts, by Russian standards. So the point I'm making is that these new conscripts have yet to really have to see serious combat and Ukraine sort of forced their hand with this operation, which presents serious, sort of, political dilemmas for the Kremlin. Going back to the Chechen wars, since then, Putin has of course been very, very hesitant to widely introduce conscript soldiers into the fold. It's a bit of a political non-starter. So this presents some dilemmas there. It reflects very poorly on Gerasimov. So interestingly, the Russian M.o.D. and, sort of, state-linked outlets like Ria Novosti have even been sort of sharing these kind of gruesome videos of the aftermath of firefights, alleging to show numerous dead Ukrainian soldiers, which I don't want to say – I can't remember ever seeing it. Maybe somebody could fact check me on that, if they've seen that from the Russian M.o.D., but that's not their typical MO. That's sort of reserved, typically, for some of the more ravenous, you know, Z telegram accounts sharing those sorts of videos, which kind of makes me think back to the Moscow concert hall shooting in March, when those same state media organs were very quick to post videos of the suspects being brutalized, kind of to show that, “hey, we're doing something,” you know. So that kind of stood out to me as something very interesting. Internationally, the US and its Western allies have been sort of infamously cautious in some ways and how they prosecuted their support for Ukraine. It's since sort of gained momentum, but I found that reaction Interesting.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that's going on, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

ALEX: Yeah, you know, obviously any sort of insight into Ukraine's aims would be amazing. We're totally speculating on that front. You know, their aims could range from seeking to draw Russian forces from the east, where Russia has the upper hand. They could be seeking to create sort of a Krynky situation. For those that really closely follow the war, that's the little pocket on the left bank of Kherson Oblast that Ukraine was able to sort of hold for the past year or so. They left it recently, but what that did was create dilemmas for Russia and force them to dedicate a lot of attrition and manpower to fighting Ukraine in a place of Ukraine's choosing, given the fact that Ukraine really has not had the initiative on the battlefield in quite a long time. You know, Dave Clark – Factal Shout out there – Dave Clark had a honestly, really interesting point, I thought, where he said, “sometimes you just need a win.” And honestly, it could be as simple as that. Like I said, I mean, Ukraine hasn't really had a win since the fall of 2022 when they were able to retake most of Kharkiv and Kherson Oblast on the right bank, so it could be as simple as that. I mean, it's a big morale booster for sure. They could be simply trying to take and hold territory for bargaining purposes. We just don't really know what their aims are and any insight into that would be nice. That's kind of the main thing that I'm watching for, as well as any potential political fallback in Russia for conscripts being forced into the fold here. You know, we're seeing a ton of POWs taken by Ukraine and we can't say for certain that these are conscripts right now, but a lot of the videographic evidence seems to corroborate that some of these are conscript soldiers. You know, there are a couple of reasons for that, but these are not the hardened soldiers of the east that are continuing to wage trench warfare. That said, again, to reiterate, it's not all good for Ukraine. The situation in the east is looking grim, specifically the Pokrovsk front, but also in Chasiv Yar. And this operation is a huge, huge strategic gamble for Ukraine, because, again, they are having to pull forces from the east, where Russia has the upper hand. But yeah, going to be continuing to keep a close eye on it.

JIMMY: Well, Alex, we'll need to pause there for today, but as always, thank you so much for keeping an eye on things for us and getting us up to speed. Appreciate it.

ALEX: Thank you, Jimmy.

Nusantara inaugurated as the capital of Indonesia

Information compiled by Jaime Calle Moreno

JIMMY: Indonesian President Joko Widodo will officially inaugurate Nusantara as the country’s capital city on Saturday. 

It will replace the current capital Jakarta, which has been deemed the fastest-sinking city in the world, with 40 percent of the metropolitan area now below sea-level.

Nusantara’s inauguration will take place during Indonesia’s independence day.

It’s part of Widodo’s years-long plan to create a new megacity in the East Kalimantan province on Borneo island.

President-elect Prabowo Subianto, who’ll take office in October, has also said he is committed to continuing the construction of Nusantara to relocate Jakarta by 2045.

Now, the construction of Nusantara is a massive undertaking, a $33 billion project that aims to create a bustling and modern city in the midst of the Borneo jungle. 

Development has continued slowly with the presidential palace being completed just recently ahead of Saturday’s inauguration. 

The construction of the city has also been mired in issues, including possible deforestation and budgetary requirements.

Finally, it is yet to be seen how quickly the city, its transport hubs, residences and buildings can be constructed, with foreign investment being vital to the progress.

Democratic National Convention begins in Chicago

Information compiled by Joe Veyera

JIMMY: An estimated 50,000 visitors will descend on Chicago starting Monday, as Democrats officially present Kamala Harris as their presidential candidate.

The convention follows a virtual roll call vote earlier this month.

Of course, the already-tumultuous race was jolted in July by President Joe Biden's announcement he would drop his bid for re-election, with the party quickly coalescing around Harris as his replacement. 

Harris then tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, with the ticket running neck-and-neck with Republican Donald Trump in the latest polling both nationally and in key swing states. 

Biden is expected to speak on the convention's first night, with former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton also slated to address delegates. 

Harris will deliver her acceptance speech on Thursday night.

Now, protests are expected and police have warned demonstrators that riots won't be tolerated. That, as officials look to avoid any incidents that invoke the unrest that marred the 1968 convention, or the George Floyd protests of 2020. 

And while the Democratic ticket has gotten a significant polling boost following its change at the top, it remains to be seen if Harris will also receive the "bounce" that usually follows the convention.

Taiwan to hold missile drills off its eastern coast

Information compiled by Hua Hsieh

JIMMY: A series of live-fire exercises are set to take place in waters off Taiwan’s southeast coast starting Tuesday.

Taiwan’s military has been increasing efforts to bolster defense amid rising tension with China. 

Chinese military aircraft and vessels regularly carry out “patrols” in the Taiwan Strait and the People's Liberation Army has been increasing its presence along the island’s eastern coast since earlier this year. 

Now, Taiwan’s air force plans to test its defense abilities, this time along the eastern coast and waters near Orchid Island. 

According to reports, the drill will test the precision of all three types of Taiwan’s main combat aircraft, equipped with self-developed and U.S.-made missiles. 

Finally, the fishery agency has asked other aircraft and vessels to avoid the restricted zone during the exercises.

Canadian railway workers strike

Information compiled by Owen Bonertz

JIMMY: Management from Canada’s two largest railways said they’ll lock out workers if no collective bargaining agreement is reached with the union by next Thursday.

The Canadian Teamsters union first voted for workers of Canadian Pacific and Canadian National to strike in the beginning of May. 

They cited safety concerns and company policies that could force workers to move to remote locations for months at a time. 

The strike was put off for several months when the country’s labor minister asked Canada’s Industrial Relations Board to rule if freight rail could be classified as an essential service. 

Last week, the board ultimately ruled in favor of the unions and said a strike could begin gradually as soon as 13 days after the decision.

Now, while roughly 40 percent of American freight moves by rail, trains carry more than 70 percent of Canadian trade. Nearly all of that is moved by Canadian National and Canadian Pacific. 

A rail strike would be especially difficult on Canada’s potash mining sector and agricultural exports from the landlocked Prairie regions. 

And while negotiations are still ongoing, Canadian National has already begun refusing shipments of hazardous materials in the event of a lock out.

Still, Canadian trucking and maritime shipping companies are reportedly scaling up.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Jaime Calle Moreno, Joe Veyera, Hua Hsieh and Owen Bonertz. Our interview featured editor Alex Moore and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe