This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Aug. 22

In this week’s forecast we’ve got the mpox outbreak, India’s prime minister visiting Ukraine, Ukraine’s Independence Day, Indonesia hosting a joint military exercise and the start of the 2024 Summer Paralympics in France. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Mpox outbreak

Information compiled by Halima Mansoor

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the mpox outbreak underway. And for more on that I’ve got Factal Senior Editor Halima Mansoor.

JIMMY: Hello, Halima!

HALIMA: Hey, Jimmy. Thanks for having me.

JIMMY: Well, Halima, it’s been a hectic year so far, but unfortunately here we are with another concerning situation unfolding. So, what’s going on with mpox? Can you give us a bit of a recap on how we got here? 

HALIMA: Sure. After the World Health Organization’s last global emergency over mpox ended in May of 2023, the virus continued to spread in Africa, and that’s mostly because no vaccines were given to the continent. Mpox is endemic in parts of Africa and has been spreading from Central to East Africa. The recent cases are from a more endemic strain, it’s called clade I, and that appears to be more fatal than the one we saw in 2022. I believe 500 people have died in the African Union this year alone. 

JIMMY: And what’s the latest? Any breaking developments?

HALIMA: Well, the Africa Centres for Disease Control, which is also known as the African CDC, has declared mpox a public health emergency of continental security last Tuesday. And the WHO followed closely. They announced the current mpox outbreak to be “a public health emergency of international concern,” which is their highest level of emergency. And this more dangerous strain of mpox has been confirmed in the Central African Republic, Burundi, Rwanda, Congo, Kenya, and most recently Sweden confirmed their clade I case. And just this week, Thailand said that it has detected a case of mpox, someone who works in Africa but has a residence in Thailand. The tests show it was not the earlier, less transmissible and less fatal kind of mpox. So now, they’re waiting for more results to see if it is indeed clade I.

JIMMY: Well, what sort of reactions have you seen to this? 

HALIMA: There is less of an appetite for travel bans after the Covid-19 restrictions stymied supply chains, trade and tourism. And the African CDC is already very wary of travel bans – “don’t punish Africa,” is what the head of the CDC said recently there. Africa is essentially looking to the world to act on lessons presumably learned during the Covid pandemic – that sharing resources is the only way to prevent the spread of this disease.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

HALIMA: Well first, how fast do we get the vaccines out to the countries in Africa that need them the most and what measures do we take to make sure that we sustain this rollout of vaccines. Then, there’s also studies that have shown that the outcome from contracting mpox changes based on the level of health care provided – so we need to see how the world steps up and supports those health systems of those countries, especially after Covid. And as the WHO Europe director said, mpox doesn’t need to become the new Covid because we know how to control this virus – I believe he said it entails vaccination and non-discriminatory public health action. Really, any signs of slinging stigma around the disease, hiding disease outbreaks, locking borders or hoarding vaccines will bode very poorly for how fast we end this cycle.

JIMMY: Well, Halima, we’ll pause there for today, but thanks for getting us to speed on all this. I take a great deal of comfort in knowing that you’ll be keeping an eye on things for us. Thank you. 

HALIMA: Of course. Thank you for having me. 

Indian PM visits Ukraine

Information compiled by Joe Veyera

JIMMY: India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be in Kyiv on Friday. The trip marks the first time an Indian prime minister has visited Ukraine since the two established diplomatic relations in 1992.

Modi’s visit comes just six weeks after he was in Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

It was during that visit he called on Russia and Ukraine to resolve their conflict through diplomatic means in the wake of a Russian strike on a children's hospital in Kyiv that left at least 31 people dead. 

That meeting drew condemnation from Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who called it a "huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts."

Now, the Indian government has attempted to maintain strong ties with Russia and Ukraine, with Modi's remarks last month serving as his strongest rebuke to Putin since the start of the war. 

Still, Modi has stopped short of condemning the invasion, and it remains to be seen if he can maintain a stance that placates both sides as the conflict drags on.

Ukraine Independence Day

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: Speaking of Ukraine, the country will commemorate its independence from Russia on Saturday.

In fact, Ukraine will celebrate 33 years of independence from Russia this week after Kyiv attempted to break free from centuries of colonization and subjugation at the hands of Moscow in 1991. 

Those attempts would prove fleeting, however, and this will mark the third independence day celebrated during Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine that ultimately failed to once again colonize Kyiv but has resulted in approximately 20 percent of the country being occupied.

Now, there are fears that Ukraine’s independence day will once again be marred by Russian missile waves like the one during the 2022 celebration that killed nearly two dozen people. 

This year’s celebration will also take place within the backdrop of Ukraine’s stunning offensive into Russia’s Kursk region that has fundamentally altered the war’s battlespace. 

Indonesia’s Super Garuda Shield 2024

Information compiled by Vivian Wang

JIMMY: Indonesia will host joint military exercises starting Monday. They’ll feature at least 19 attending countries, including the United States, Australia, Japan and South Korea.

Super Garuda Shield, as it’s called, is a large-scale military exercise held annually in Indonesia since 2009. It’s intended to “safeguard a free and open Indo-Pacific region.” 

The event has grown into one of the region’s largest multinational military exercises, with heavy U.S. involvement.

Now, while China likely views Super Garuda Shield as a threat to their regional influence, Indonesia and China maintain relatively friendly relations, even recently discussing potential joint military training between the two countries.

2024 Summer Paralympics begin

Information compiled by Irene Villora

JIMMY: The Paris 2024 Paralympic Games will begin on Wednesday. They’ll continue until Sept. 8

This is the first time that Paris will host the Paralympic Summer Games and the opening ceremony will begin with a parade departing from Place de la Concorde, in the center of the French capital. 

Up to 184 international delegations, including athletes and officials, will participate in the event. 

The opening ceremony will be televised and access to the venues will be adapted for athletes, other participants and spectators.

Now, at least 4,400 paralympic athletes will compete in 549 events through the course of the games. 

As far as security goes, up to 75,000 police officers, soldiers, private guards and members of other European security forces will be deployed during the competition. 

An Olympic Intelligence Center was also set up prior to the Olympic Games in order to reinforce national security.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Joe Veyera, Alex Moore, Vivian Wang and Irene Villora. Our interview featured editor Halima Mansoor and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe