This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Aug. 29.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got militant attacks in Pakistan, passport control workers striking at the UK’s busiest airport, Mexico’s Congress convening, a parliamentary election in Azerbaijan and the Pope’s visit to Asia and Oceania. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Attacks in Balochistan 

Information compiled by Awais Ahmad

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the recent militant attacks in Pakistan's Balochistan province. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal Editor Awais Ahmad.

JIMMY: Hello, Awais. 

AWAIS: Hi, Jimmy.

JIMMY: Glad you're here. We've been seeing some pretty troubling violence in Pakistan recently and I'm hoping you can get us caught up on what we need to know. So, can you maybe give us a bit of a recap on how we got here?

AWAIS: Of course. So, separatist and insurgency movements in Balochistan have existed for decades, and this specific group, the B.L.A., which is responsible for the recent attacks, has been around since the early 2000s. But this Sunday, they carried out multiple attacks across the province, leaving more than 70 people dead. The toll includes, you know, security personnel, civilians -- especially those coming from Pakistan's Punjab province -- as well as militants belonging to the B.L.A. In their attacks, they targeted multiple government installations, like police stations. They blew up railway tracks and, in some instances, they also inspected vehicles that were traveling from Punjab. They checked the IDs of the passengers and then shot any individuals that were from Punjab. The Pakistani military responded very quickly. It claimed, after the attacks were done, that it killed at least 21 militants, but it also said that 14 soldiers and security personnel were also killed in the attacks. This has been referred to as the deadliest day in the province's recent history. And that is kind of where we are at the moment.

JIMMY: And what's the latest? Any new developments?

AWAIS: Yeah, the military is continuing its operations. They want to, obviously, find and identify the perpetrators behind the attacks and anyone that might have supported them. Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has offered "any financial resources" required by the military to do so. However, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi told reporters in Quetta, which is the capital of Balochistan, that no large-scale operation is needed to eliminate the insurgents. The B.L.A., for its part, has said that it plans on continuing its assaults, but we have yet to see any major attacks since the ones on Sunday.

JIMMY: Well, what kind of reactions to this situation have you seen?

AWAIS: Well, there have been condemnations of attacks by several countries, including China and the US, and both have offered support in Pakistan's counterterrorism efforts. Iran also condemned the attacks. Iran and Pakistan have collaborated in the past on a lot of counterterrorism efforts because there are a number of militant groups that are situated along the border areas near Balochistan and they carry out attacks in both countries. Internally, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said that there will be no peace talks with the B.L.A., adding that the talks could only be held with those who "acknowledged Pakistan's constitution and flag." Some top officials within provincial governments in Pakistan have claimed that these militants were using territories in Afghanistan for their training before the attacks. They've also accused India's RAW spy agency -- Research and Analysis [Wing] spy agency -- of backing the attacks. They claim that India has done so to cause instability in the country, but these are, honestly, these are just claims at the moment and I would not say that this is the official stance of the federal government. On the federal level, though, officials have accused the militants of wanting to hurt Pakistan's economic interests, especially in Balochistan, which is, you know, resource rich and is also home to a lot of China-led projects and investments. 

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks should be watching for next?

AWAIS: I think folks should be watching for more attacks, for sure. Like I said, the B.L.A. has promised more attacks. It has been around for some time. And, you know, insurgency movements in the province go back even decades. But the recent attacks really show that the B.L.A. has kind of stepped up their operational capabilities and are much more organized now. So we can definitely expect more attacks against people from Punjab -- these are people usually coming to Balochistan for work. We can also expect more attacks against security forces, police stations and other government or military installations. And in the past, B.L.A. has also targeted foreign nationals, especially Chinese workers in the province, whether it is on site of the projects or on their convoys. So we can definitely keep an eye out for more of that. And as I mentioned earlier, the government is refusing to engage in any kind of talks. So at this point, it's kind of unclear how it chooses to tackle the grievances laid out by the Baloch minorities. These grievances culminated in large protest movements in 2023 and earlier this year. And in terms of the military response, again, there has been no announcement for any large-scale operation there yet, so that's not really on the list of things to expect, but it could also always change if, you know, we continue to see these attacks or the intensity of these attacks increase in any way, shape or form.

JIMMY: Well, Awais, let's pause there for today. But as always, thank you so much for your time and for keeping an eye – a keen eye – on things for us. Appreciate it.

AWAIS: Of course. Thank you for having me.

Border Force strike at London Heathrow begins

Information compiled by Joe Veyera

JIMMY: More than 600 passport control workers at London’s Heathrow airport will walk off the job on Saturday.

It’s part of a four-day strike that will be followed by nearly three weeks of "work-to-rule" action where no work is done beyond what is contractually obligated, including overtime.

The work stoppage comes on the heels of previous strike actions in April, May and June. 

The Public and Commercial Services Union says its members are "being forced out of the job they love" due to inflexible work schedules. 

Earlier this year, members of the armed forces were reportedly being trained to cover for striking Border Force workers, but it's unclear if they are expected to step in in this instance. 

Now, the union claims their strike, "is likely to cause serious disruptions to travelers." A Heathrow spokesperson, however, told the BBC the airport has worked through previous industrial action. 

Still, travelers are encouraged to check the latest guidance from their airline before arriving for their flights. 

66th session of Mexico's Congress convenes

Information compiled by Irene Villora

JIMMY: The 66th legislature of Mexico's Congress will convene on Sunday.

It will be the first session since the election of MORENA party’s Claudia Sheinbaum as the country’s new president. 

The successor of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador will have the support of a MORENA majority at the chamber during the first three years of her six-year presidential term. 

Now, the start of the legislature will be marked by MORENA’s efforts to push a package of 18 constitutional reforms. Those include significant changes to the country’s electoral system and the judiciary. 

The reform of the judiciary, which includes controversial points like the election of judges by popular vote, is expected to be ratified at congress in the first days of September. 

This, despite strike actions by workers of the judiciary and criticism from the opposition and the U.S. government. Both have expressed concerns over a possible loss of autonomy of the judicial body. 

Outgoing President López Obrador, however, says the reform aims to eliminate “corruption” in the judiciary.

Azerbaijan’s parliamentary election

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: Azerbaijan will vote Sunday in the country’s parliamentary elections.

President Ilham Aliyev issued a decree dissolving parliament in late June. That paved the way for elections that are being held early, reportedly to avoid a scheduling clash with a UN climate conference being held in Azerbaijan in November. 

A team of more than 280 election monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe will observe the polls. It’s their 14th mission to the country. 

The OSCE’s report into the February 2024 presidential election, the last poll it observed, was critical of the restrictive environment and lack of alternative political choices in a “contest devoid of genuine pluralism.”

Now, Aliyev’s New Azerbaijan party is not only expected to win a majority, but potentially increase its number of seats from the 69 it already holds in the 125-seat parliament. The same parliament where a number of opposition parties remain loyal to him. 

Still, opposition parties have been critical of the decision to hold the vote early, saying there is no chance to win under Aliyev’s oppressive regime. 

Pope visits Asia and Oceania

Information compiled by Jimmy Lovaas

JIMMY: Pope Francis will depart Rome on Monday and begin an 11-night trip, visiting four nations across Asia and Oceania.

Francis’s 45th trip abroad is scheduled to start with a three-night visit to Jakarta, where he will meet Indonesian President Joko Widodo.

He’ll then head to Papua New Guinea for three nights and then two nights in Dili, the capital of Timor-Leste. The trip is scheduled to conclude with a three-day visit in Singapore. 

Now, much attention will likely be on Francis’s time in Indonesia, where he’ll visit Istiqlal mosque – the largest mosque in Southeast Asia. 

That’s where he’ll hold an interfaith meeting with representatives of the country's six officially recognized religions.

The meeting comes as the most populated country of Southeast Asia continues to face challenges to its tolerant image. 

Finally, the trip marks 87-year-old Francis’s longest and most tiring journey of his pontificate, according to the Vatican, but also comes as he continues to deal with ailing health.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Joe Veyera, Irene Villora and David Wyllie. Our interview featured editor Awais Ahmad and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe