This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Sept. 12.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got Typhoon Yagi aftermath in Asia, Germany tightening border controls, a U.S. court hearing for TikTok, Air Canada pilots striking and provincial elections in Jammu and Kashmir. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Super Typhoon Yagi

Information compiled by Vivian Wang.

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the devastation following Super Typhoon Yagi. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal Editor Vivian Wang.

JIMMY: Hello, Vivian.

VIVIAN: Hi, Jimmy.

JIMMY: Thanks for taking time to talk with us today. Looks like this typhoon did quite the number on parts of Asia. I’m Hoping you can get us up to speed. So, to start, can you give us a bit of a recap on the situation?

VIVIAN: Yeah, there’s a lot of ground to cover here. Yagi started off as a tropical storm east of the Philippines and started tracking west, over northern Philippines, which set off landslides and flooding that killed at least 16 people there. Then it kept moving west, strengthening into a super typhoon over the South China Sea before making landfall twice again in southern China, once in Hainan and then in Guangdong. It killed at least four people there and forced more than a million people to relocate, not to mention knocking out power temporarily in the region. Then it kept moving west toward northern Vietnam, where it’s had the deadliest impact - as of Wednesday evening local time, I think more than 170 people have been killed and around 140 are still missing from all of the landslides and flash flooding the storm brought, even as it dissipated into a tropical depression.

JIMMY: Awful situation. Well, what’s the latest? Any new developments?

VIVIAN: So, the storm is technically dissipated, but its remnants kept moving west and are still causing heavy rain, flooding and landslides in Thailand and Myanmar now as well. I think Thailand in particular has recorded four deaths so far related to the remnants of the storm.

JIMMY: Well what sort of reactions have you seen to this typhoon? 

VIVIAN: Well, I think Vietnamese authorities saw the storm coming, and they issued warnings and closed airports ahead of landfall, but Yagi’s been one of the strongest storms the region’s seen over the past decade, definitely the strongest in Asia this year, and it kept rainfall up even as it weakened - I think especially further inland in Vietnam and Thailand, they might not have been expecting as much impact as it caused. And of course it’s been devastating for residents and families in Vietnam, survivors are dealing with so much landslide and flood damage to their homes and businesses.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next then?

VIVIAN: Well, this goes for all areas hit by heavy rain recently, but Vietnam in particular will likely be more vulnerable than usual to extreme weather, since the storm will have destabilized the land, and critical infrastructure and industrial hubs also took a hit. So there will be knock-on effects for a while from this storm, so we should be keeping a close eye on them for the rest of their rainy season and the Pacific typhoon season, both of which generally continue through the next couple of months. And for Asia in general, I mean, climate change and warmer ocean waters means extended typhoon seasons and more intense tropical storms, and this time of year is when storms are strongest and most frequent - so, we already have a new one brewing called Bebinca. So something to keep an eye out for.

JIMMY: Well, Vivian, we’ll need to pause there for today, but thank you again for your time and update! I always appreciate it. 

VIVIAN: Thanks for having me on, Jimmy.

Germany tightens border controls

Information compiled by Agnese Boffano

JIMMY: Germany will begin to tighten controls at all of the country’s borders beginning on Monday.

Earlier this week, the German cabinet approved a draft law laying out its plans to implement tightened security controls at all of the country’s nine land borders.

It argues that it’s an attempt to tackle illegal migration. 

Although Europe’s Schengen area allows for unrestricted travel between its member countries, EU law stipulates each country is allowed to introduce further border checks if they deem it necessary to counter a public threat. 

The move to tighten border controls in Germany is set to be temporary – starting on Sept. 16 and lasting approximately six months with the possibility of extension. 

Of course, this move does come after a series of recent deadly attacks in the country, including an ISIS-claimed knife attack in August in the western city of Solingen. 

That attack left three people dead.

Now, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz appears to be seeking support from the anti-immigrant sentiment growing among the German population.

A population, which has over the past few months, supported the opposition far-right and conservative politicians. 

In fact, a state election in Thuringia earlier this month saw the rise of the right-wing Alternative for Germany party. 

That marked the first far-right political group to win a state election since World War II. 

Still, with polls suggesting the Alternative for Germany party could perform strongly in the Sept. 22 state election in Brandenburg, critics argue the government’s hardline push is more about politics than it is about effective security measures. 

Appeals court hearing on U.S. TikTok ban

Information compiled by Owen Bonertz

JIMMY: The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals will hear arguments from the Justice Department and TikTok lawyers on Wednesday. 

It’s over the Biden administration’s bill requiring TikTok’s parent company ByteDance to divest or face a total ban.

TikTok has become America’s fifth-largest social media platform since its inception in 2017. 

The Chinese-owned company is accused of excessive data collection through its app, including user contacts, locations and even their current altitude. 

Back in 2020, the Trump administration floated the idea of a ban in an official statement arguing that ByteDance’s close connections to the Chinese state posed a security threat. 

Ultimately, President Biden passed a bipartisan bill in April of this year stating ByteDance has until January 2025 to sell the TikTok platform or face an outright ban. 

Trump has since reversed his stance and no longer supports a TikTok ban.

Now, this first legal challenge to Biden’s so-called “Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act” will take place in front of a three-judge panel, including two Republican appointees. 

ByteDance has hired an all-star legal team to argue that divestment from the app is impossible and that TikTok’s data collection is industry standard. 

The government will be represented by experienced appellate lawyer Daniel Tenny. 

Regardless of the hearing’s outcome, the case is expected to proceed to the U.S. Supreme Court.

Air Canada pilots strike

Information compiled by Irene Villora

JIMMY: Air Canada pilots are expected to walk out on Tuesday. The move comes after failed negotiations with the airline over wages.

The pilots union demands the Canadian airline bring salaries in line with those of their U.S. counterparts. 

Pilots at the main U.S. carriers in 2023 secured pay rises of between 34 and 40 percent over a four-year term. 

Negotiations between Air Canada and the Air Line Pilots Association have been ongoing for 15 months.

Now, Air Canada representatives have expressed hope to reach an agreement before Sept. 15 with the 5,200 pilots threatening to strike. 

After all, according to the airline’s estimates, the shutdown could impact more than 100,000 passengers daily. Disruption could extend for as many as 10 days. 

Still, the airline has started implementing contingency plans, including allowing passengers to cancel or reschedule flights between Sept. 15 and 23 at no additional cost. That, as the carrier could start to gradually suspend flights as early as Sunday.

Provincial elections in Jammu and Kashmir

Information compiled by Jaime Calle Moreno

JIMMY: On Wednesday, voters in Indian-controlled Jammu and Kashmir are set for their first regional election in a decade. 

Nearly 9 million people are registered to vote for the 90-seat legislative assembly.

In this year’s parliamentary elections in the country, voter turnout in Jammu and Kashmir increased substantially. 

That led to the announcement by the electoral commission, backed by the Supreme Court, to hold provincial elections. 

As you may recall, the region, due to an ongoing armed insurgency, had its special status and autonomy revoked in 2019. 

That revocation was upheld earlier this year by India’s Supreme Court.

The elections will be held across three phases for different municipalities to vote, with the first starting Wednesday. The second phase will be Sept. 25, and the last day on Oct. 1. Votes are being counted up on Oct. 4.

Now, it is yet to be seen how Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party fares in the contested region’s provincial elections. 

Still, it’s clear he has made an attempt to gain some popularity there from his recent visit in March. 

Unfortunately, the region has been mired in conflict as of late, with insurgent militants conducting large-scale attacks on both civilians and security forces.

One of those attacks killed 10 Hindu pilgrims and left dozens injured during an ambush in Reasi. 

Finally, the stakes are high for the region, and it is likely that attacks will continue in the run-up and during the elections.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Agnese Boffano, Owen Bonertz, Irene Villora and Jaime Calle Moreno. Our interview featured editor Vivian Wang and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe