This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Sept. 19.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got explosions targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon, a presidential election in Sri Lanka, an election in Germany’s Brandenburg, a political party rally in Pakistan and the head of the FAA testifying before Congress about Boeing.

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Hezbollah pager explosions

Information compiled by Agnese Boffano

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the mass explosions of communication devices targeting Hezbollah members in Lebanon and Syria. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal Editor Agnese Boffano.

JIMMY: Hello, Agnese. 

AGNESE: Hey, Jimmy. 

JIMMY: Agnese, I'm so glad you're here. We've got an absolutely wild situation we're watching unfold right now with exploding electronics in Lebanon and I'm just about certain a lot of our listeners would like to know more about it. So to start, can you give us a bit of a recap on what's happened?

AGNESE: Yeah, I can give it a go. We started getting reports on Tuesday afternoon about multiple simultaneous explosions that originally were being heard in Beirut. And Lebanese media was very quick to come out and say that dozens of members of Hezbollah, which is the Iran-backed group in Lebanon, they were injured after apparently their paging devices – which they were being used by Hezbollah to communicate – they appear to have exploded. And so shortly after that, we started getting reports of ambulances transporting dozens of people with what appear to be head and limb injuries, especially to the hands; reports about hospitals being completely overwhelmed. And then, not only in Beirut, but across multiple towns in the country as well, and not only in Lebanon, as well, but we got similar reports of explosions targeting Hezbollah members in Damascus in Syria. And it wasn't until about three hours afterwards when the Lebanese health ministry then gave a press conference saying that eight people were killed and then that's when we realized just the scale of the incident. They said nearly 2,800 people were injured as a result of these explosions and, since then, the death toll has also gone up. Not long after that, Hezbollah came out with a statement and directly blamed Israel for these incidents, although we haven't seen Israel comment. And it's not really likely to comment on these types of incidents. But a lot since then has been coming out as to the nature of these pagers themselves. It appears as though initial reports suggested that they were being manufactured by a Taiwanese company, but then the company itself refuted the claims and said that they were actually manufactured by a Hungarian company who just used their brand trademark. So there's a lot of speculation about that. There's a lot of speculation as well about the shipment aspect, you know. As you know, because of the current situation in Lebanon, shipments like these are not able to enter the country directly, you know. So they're most likely – they would have most likely been stopped at some sort of port for periods of up to months. You know, these things do take time in Lebanon to get processed and that would have possibly, you know, given Israel ample opportunity to plant these apparent explosive devices inside the pagers. As I said, these are mostly speculations that we've been looking at. Reports that have been coming in the aftermath of the attack are still scattered, but it's definitely a type of incident that appears to be consistent with those carried out in the past by Israel's Mossad, the national intelligence agency.

JIMMY: And what's the latest? Seen any developments since then?

AGNESE: We sure have, yeah. So actually, just over 24 hours after those initial series of explosions on Tuesday, yesterday, on Wednesday, we saw another wave of explosions across much of Beirut, this time suggesting that some sort of walkie talkies were the target of these explosions. Again, they were being used by Hezbollah to communicate and again they detonated almost simultaneously yesterday afternoon. And this again resulted in a mass casualty event. The health ministry gave a press conference shortly after that and said that this time around more than a dozen people were killed, and again, we have an injury toll in the hundreds. So it really shows how it just wasn't a one off massive attack, but definitely something leading to a clear escalation.

JIMMY: Incredible. Well, what sort of reactions to this have you seen?

AGNESE: So if we start from Hezbollah side, they have admitted that this was a very significant security breach. But I mean, how could they not, you know? These attacks are beyond the targeted drone strikes on Hezbollah members that we've been seeing over the past 11 months in southern Lebanon, sometimes in Beirut. But you know, we're talking this time about a clear infiltration into Hezbollah security structure and a clear targeting of the group’s supply chain directly. You know, it indicates an involvement very much on state level. And of course, Hezbollah officials have been giving interviews about this and they've said that this is not going to affect the group's military capabilities, but it just shows how very much overpowering Israel is in this extremely asymmetric warfare that we're dealing with. And then on the Israeli side, if we want to move on, as I said they haven't formally taken responsibility for the attacks, but we have seen some sort of reinforcement up on the border in the north. They've sent some brigades stationed there. And as well, we've seen statements from Israeli officials suggesting that the military, as they've said, the military is ready to heighten the security at its northern front should that situation arise. So there's definitely tensions there. And then, if we want to look at the International reactions, of course, we've been seeing statements of concerns coming from the UN, the EU and from neighboring countries, you know, with the usual calls for de-escalation. And even the US, they've talked about the event that they said that not only were they not involved in the attacks, but they've also said that they had no prior awareness of the incident. So that's kind of where they stand at the moment.

JIMMY: Now I know this is kind of like asking you to predict the future, but considering all that's gone on this week, as well as the ongoing tensions, what do you think folks should be watching for next

AGNESE: This last question of yours, Jimmy, is my favorite and least favorite of all time.So I guess it is true that Hezbollah has threatened to retaliate harshly against Israel, and they have done so in the past as well. You know, we've seen whenever Israel has conducted similar significant attacks on Lebanese soil. Most recently, we had the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. You know, we've seen time and time again these significant attacks being retaliated by Hezbollah on Israel, for example, in the form of a larger-than-usual barrage of rockets fired from the south. But still, they've been retaliations within the unspoken general rules of engagement between the two. Now we have these latest series of cyber attacks, basically, that caused significant damage to the manpower, especially of Hezbollah. We have thousands of Hezbollah members injured. So what we can expect is a retaliatory strike. We are expecting some sort of retaliation, and I think Israel also expects one given the army's apparent defensive position that it's taken since. But safe to say that Israel has definitely pushed the limits of this game in the last few days. What we need to watch for now is to see whether Hezbollah, too, is going to stretch the limits in their next move. And what this next move will be like, I'm not too sure at this point.

JIMMY: Well, Agnese, we need to pause there for today, but thank you so much for keeping an eye on things and for keeping our audience plugged in. Appreciate it.

AGNESE: Thanks so much.

Sri Lanka presidential election

Information compiled by Ahmed Namatalla

JIMMY: Sri Lanka will vote for its highest executive office on Saturday. It’s the first election since the 2022 economic crisis that sparked anti-government protests and the ouster of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

Sri Lanka defaulted on its debt for the first time two years ago, collapsing under the weight of borrowing that couldn’t withstand the impact of the global economic slowdown caused by the pandemic. 

The crisis sparked protests that forced Rajapaksa to flee and put power in the hands of former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. 

He’s aiming to remain in office, but is running against more than 30 other candidates.

What’s more, the Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey by the Institute for Health Policy shows him running third. 

He’s trailing slightly behind opposition leader Sajith Premadasa and frontrunner Anura Kumara Dissanayake, also known as AKD. The latter of which leads a leftist coalition aligned with the anti-Rajapaksa uprising.

Now, the incumbent is running on some tangible success in weathering the economic crisis, crediting his policies with bringing down inflation, strengthening the local currency and lowering Sri Lanka’s debt burden. 

Still, the improvement in numbers came at the cost of signing an IMF agreement that has brought austerity to a nation already struggling with high rates of poverty and inequality. 

Meanwhile, Dissanayake and Premadasa draw their support from young people who participated in 2022’s uprising. 

And while none of the candidates are openly opposing the IMF-imposed economic system, maintaining the country’s relative stability of the last two years may well depend on its next leader.

Particularly, their ability to balance the continued implementation of austerity measures such as increasing taxes and prices of public services with growing public discontent.

Germany’s Brandenburg elections

Information compiled by Agnese Boffano

JIMMY: Germany’s Brandenburg, that is the federal state encircling Berlin, is set to hold its state elections on Sunday. 

As you may recall, the election held for Germany’s Thuringia earlier this month marked the first time a far-right political group won a state election in the country since WWII, with right-wing Alternative for Germany making an unprecedented gain of seats. 

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, too, appears to be making appeasements to the country’s growing right-wing sentiments after a law came into effect this Monday to tighten security controls at all of the country’s nine land border crossings. 

Officials said the move came amid an effort to stop illegal immigration after Germany witnessed a surge in attacks claimed by extremist groups.

Now, analysts predict that Alternative for Germany is set to win the most parliamentary seats in Brandenburg, with polls suggesting it could win more than 28 percent of the votes. 

That’s up nearly 5 percent from the previous state elections in 2019. 

This would signify the first time that the ruling Social Democratic Party is not in power in Brandenburg since the reunification of Germany in 1990. 

In fact, Brandenburg’s Minister President Dietmar Woidke has vowed to resign if his Social Democratic Party does not gain the most seats. 

That, as even the Greens and Leftist parties risk not being able to reach the minimum 5 percent threshold required to qualify for parliamentary seats.

PTI rally in Lahore

Information compiled by Matthew Hipolito

JIMMY: Supporters of Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his PTI party are expected to march in Lahore on Sunday.

The country’s second largest city is preparing itself in case that march turns violent.

Khan has been imprisoned for more than a year on corruption charges and many of the marches held in recent months have ended in arrests and police violently dispersing demonstrators.

In preparation for this rally, PTI canceled nationwide plans for protests on Sept. 13 to “save its strengths” for the march in Lahore and to allow rally goers to travel to the city.

Now, PTI also explicitly stated that they chose to cancel the Sept. 13 plans in response to the repeated clashes with police at its functions, saying “every peaceful PTI activity has resulted in its party leaders and workers’ arrests.” 

While the actions of the vast majority of attendees at these rallies have been peaceful, given the anticipated size of the Lahore rally, the threat of violence, including tear gas, baton charges and other means of forceful dispersion remains high.

FAA chief to testify before Congress on Boeing plan

Information compiled by Joe Veyera

JIMMY: Federal Aviation Administration head Mike Whitaker will appear Tuesday before the House Transportation Committee. He’s slated to speak on Boeing's quality improvement plan.

The aerospace manufacturer has been under increased scrutiny from regulators since a mid-air incident in January that saw a door plug blow out on an Alaska Airlines flight shortly after takeoff from Portland, Oregon. 

The company has been thrown into further turmoil in recent weeks, after machinists overwhelmingly rejected a tentative contract agreement and instead opted to walk off the job last Friday.

Now, Connecticut Sen. Richard Blumenthal, who chairs the committee, told Reuters the FAA has to explain what it knew about Boeing's safety practices in the lead up to the door plug incident. 

He also said that the FAA has a key role to play in establishing a new safety culture. 

Boeing’s new president and CEO Kelly Ortberg now faces the tall task of turning around the company's financial fortunes, reestablishing its manufacturing prowess, and achieving labor peace.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Ahmed Namatalla, Agnese Boffano, Matthew Hipolito and Joe Veyera. Our interview featured Agnese Boffano and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe