This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Oct. 3.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got Israel’s ground offensive into southern Lebanon, municipal elections in Brazil, North Korea’s parliament meeting, mpox vaccinations in Nigeria and elections in Mozambique. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Israel ground invasion of southern Lebanon

Information compiled by Agnese Boffano

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at Israel’s ground offensive in southern Lebanon. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Agnese Boffano.

JIMMY: Hello, Agnese. 

AGNESE: Hey there, Jimmy.

JIMMY: Well, Agnese, you were here just a couple weeks ago telling us about exploding pagers in Lebanon, and now it seems the situation has somehow gotten worse. What's going on? Can you give us a bit of a recap on what's happened?

AGNESE: Yeah, it's been two weeks since we last spoke about Lebanon and it somehow feels like months. But I'll start with what we're hopefully going to focus on in this episode, and that is Israel's announcement of a ground invasion, because the Israeli military came out with a statement overnight between Monday and Tuesday confirming what a lot of people were fearing after the past two weeks of airstrikes across Lebanon, and that is the ground invasion. Well, they called it a limited and localized operation, and they said that their goal is to eliminate Hezbollah, destroy their military infrastructure along the border, in order to establish a kind of buffer zone along the Blue Line so that the approximately 60,000 residents that were displaced in northern Israel can return to their homes. Now, both Hezbollah and Israel have acknowledged engaging in close-combat fighting inside Lebanese territory since then, but it's not very clear at the moment just how far they've come, and it's definitely not clear how far they intend to go. And meanwhile, the Israeli military has continued to order the evacuation of dozens of towns across Lebanon's two southern regions and it continues to engage in daily strikes across the country, including in the capital Beirut, and including, if you remember, a very significant series of strikes in southern Beirut last Friday, which ended up killing Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. 

JIMMY: And what's the latest, then? Any new developments?

AGNESE: Yeah, we've definitely had an escalation. I think we have to mention Iran because it does play a role in the front that we're talking about between Lebanon and Israel. As I'm sure all of our listeners have seen by now, Iran launched about 180 ballistic and cruise missiles on Tuesday from its territory toward Israel, and it was a very dramatic show that, you know, had the entire country under air raid sirens as the Iron Dome and the Arrow range and other defense systems managed to intercept most of them, according to military statements, which ended up leading to basically no casualties on the Israeli side at all. Even though we did have reports of damage overall, no critical military infrastructure and no significant civilian buildings were particularly impacted. Now, Iran has said that this was in response to, firstly, Israel's assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh back in July in Tehran, but they also said it was in response to the assassination of Nasrallah, that I mentioned, and in response to the ground invasion in Lebanon. And after conducting the missile strikes, you know, Iran was very quick to come out with a statement saying, basically, you know, we've attacked Israel in retaliation of x, y and z – now it's over. Which is the same thing that they said back in April. And again, they're saying it because, I mean, what does it mean? It means that, again, Iran has given this massive show of force because it was expected to retaliate, but not necessarily because it wants to enter this regional war per se, other than the obvious support for its proxy groups like Hezbollah. Now, Hezbollah is another issue altogether. They haven't formally retaliated for Nasrallah's death and they haven't yet reached their full potential of retaliation for the ground invasion, so that chapter remains very much open.

JIMMY: Well, what sort of reactions to this ground offensive have you seen?

AGNESE: I think we have to take into consideration that the announcement of the ground invasion comes after Nasrallah's assassination, which not only boosted Netanyahu's popularity in Israel in levels that we haven't really seen since before October 7, but also came with considerable praise from multiple Western allies, including the United States, who has consistently reiterated their support for Israel and the support for its military goals in general. Of course, now the US is particularly concerned and has sent additional aircraft squadrons and, you know, additional military infrastructure and flow of officials to the region. But I think general reactions to the, you know, approximately 1 million people that have been displaced in Lebanon, or general reactions to the more than 1,000 people killed across the country – it has been pretty much limited to just calls for a ceasefire and asking all parties involved to de-escalate. But we've seen this before with Gaza, Jimmy. You know, the US and Western allies said that it wouldn't support an Israeli invasion of Gaza, but when Israel set foot inside, it wasn't reprimanded. And again, the same thing happened with Rafah, which housed and still houses thousands of displaced Palestinians. Everyone said that this was going to be a red line for their support, you know, financially and militarily, of Israel, but when Israel drove its tanks inside the southern city, again it wasn't reprimanded. And I think this time, again, it's going to be the same case with Lebanon.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

AGNESE: Well, in the case of Iran, I think it seems their response is over. Israel has vowed to retaliate in return, but it might just take the form of perhaps targeted strikes on IRGC and Iran-linked bases in the region, like we saw back in April. What I think we should be watching for next is exactly how this ground invasion happens. Because even though the Israeli military has said that this was going to be a limited operation – they said it was going to last a few weeks – we saw how it turned out in Gaza, or rather, we're seeing how it turned out in Gaza. We're coming up at the anniversary of October 7 and the operation is nowhere near in sight. You know, the end of it is nowhere near in sight. And in Lebanon, we're talking about an estimated about 40,000 soldiers made up of multiple divisions and multiple brigades coming up against  thousands of trained Hezbollah fighters who just know their territory in the south and who are able to carry out this guerrilla warfare type operations with the upper hands that, until now, Israel has been having in this game. And you know, not last of all, we're talking about weaponry much superior to Hamas’ in Gaza and, as well, an open border with Syria where additional weapons from Iran can easily be resupplied inside Lebanon. And let's not forget, this isn't the first time that Israel invaded southern Lebanon. Last time it happened in 2006 and even though it was only for about a month, it resulted in the death of more than 120 soldiers, because Hezbollah fighters, again, were engaged in a series of carefully prepared series of ambushes. And of course, it looks like this time the Israeli military is much more prepared, and we've seen over the last couple of weeks how much they've been able to destroy of Hezbollah's capabilities and leadership as well. But what we're looking at now is just tens of thousands of specialized Hezbollah and Radwan fighters who know their terrain like the back of their hands. So really, I think we're looking at a scenario much deadlier, a scenario that's much longer lasting, for sure, and with more advanced technology on both sides than we had nearly two decades ago. And especially if we see Hezbollah electing this man, Hashem Safieddine, as their new wartime Secretary General, whose hardliner ambitions might just bring the group and the country into, you know, really fierce fighting all along the Blue Line border.

JIMMY: Well, Agnese, we'll pause there for today. But something tells me this won't be the last time we talk about this situation. Though, I do take some comfort in knowing you'll be keeping an eye on things for us. Appreciate that.

AGNESE: Thanks. Jimmy

Brazil municipal elections first round

Information compiled by Jaime Calle Moreno

JIMMY: Millions of Brazilians will begin voting Sunday in the country’s first round of municipal elections.

They’lll choose between mayors and councilors who will hold office for the next four years. 

The second round, which can only be considered for cities with a population larger than 200,000, is set to take place on Oct. 27. That, for candidates that don’t receive a majority vote of at least 50 percent. 

The battle of left vs. right wing candidates is taking place across regional capitals – most importantly in the country’s economic powerhouse São Paulo. It’s in a tight and at times violent race between current right-wing mayor Ricardo Nunes and Guilherme Boulos, part of the left-wing Workers’ Party. 

Now, the political divide between current President Luíz Inácio Lula da Silva and former President Jair Bolsonaro’s ideas are being played out at a municipal level, with important cities going either one way or the other. 

Crime and the economy are at the forefront of the campaigns. 

The armed forces have been deployed for the elections, with at least 455 cases of violence recorded against candidates throughout the year.

Finally, as the race remains tight, São Paulo will be the most watched battleground come Sunday, and it is yet to be seen whether violence spills during the elections themselves.

North Korea Supreme People’s Assembly meeting on constitutional revision

Information compiled by Hua Hsieh

JIMMY: North Korea’s rubber-stamp parliament will convene a session on Monday. They’ll discuss a proposed constitutional amendment in Pyongyang.

Of course, with North Korea’s trash balloon campaign launched in January and Seoul suspending the 2018 military agreement in response, inter-Korean relations have deteriorated sharply since the beginning of the year. 

In a previous parliamentary meeting, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said that unification with the South was “a mistake that we should no longer make.” 

He called for changes in the constitution to label South Korea as the country’s “primary foe”. 

He also accused Seoul of attempting to seek unification through absorption and stressed that the North will not shy away from war should it happen. 

Three government agencies charged with promoting reunification with the South were subsequently abolished. 

Now, the upcoming parliamentary meeting is set to discuss the proposed revision of the constitution, as well as the issues regarding laws on light industry, external economic affairs, and the enforcement of the quality control law.

According to South Korean officials, the North is likely to scrap an inter-Korean basic agreement signed in 1991, which sees ties between Pyongyang and Seoul as a "special relationship" formed in the process of seeking reunification, not as state-to-state relations. 

And while the upcoming assembly session is unlikely to resist the direction laid out by the ruling worker’s party, experts will still be keeping an eye on any substantial action following the revision and South Korea’s response to the potentially escalatory move.

Nigeria to start mpox vaccination

Information compiled by Awais Ahmad

JIMMY: Nigeria will begin administering vaccinations for mpox on Tuesday.

The country received its first batch of 10,000 doses of the Jynneos mpox vaccine in August from the U.S. Agency for International Development. 

Following three weeks of regulatory lab analysis, the vaccine is now expected to be given to more than 4,700 people across five states. 

They’ll receive two doses each, 28 days apart.

Now, Nigeria has confirmed 40 cases of the disease with no fatalities since the World Health Organization declared mpox a public health emergency on Aug. 14. 

Outbreaks remain complex and hard to monitor due to insufficient resources, with cases in Nigeria and the rest of Africa largely going unreported. 

Still, authorities hope the vaccine will curb the disease by targeting the population in close contact with mpox cases, including health workers and people that are immunocompromised.

Mozambique elections

Information compiled by Owen Bonertz

JIMMY: Citizens of Mozambique will elect a new president and parliament on Wednesday. 

Current President Filipe Nyusi won’t be on the ballot as he has served two terms and is constitutionally blocked from running a third time.

His democratic socialist FRELIMO party has governed Mozambique since its independence from Portugal in 1975. 

Still, the United States alleged widespread fraud and intimidation during 2019’s election and at least three opposition protesters were killed during demonstrations following last year’s local elections. 

Now, the ruling party’s candidate for this election is Daniel Chapo. 

He was chosen in May after a competitive internal leadership battle and is expected to win the presidency over three other candidates, including Ossufo Momade.

He’s the leader of Mozambique's main opposition party and former anti-communist rebel movement, RENAMO.

RENAMO has promised to tackle the Islamist insurgency in the Cabo Delgado region, which began in 2017 but declined significantly following the deployment of Rwandan peacekeepers in 2021. 

Reasserting state control in Cabo Delgado is essential to tapping the region’s significant natural gas reserves, to which Mozambique has attempted to attract international investors. 

Finally, Mozambique ranks low on global corruption and election freedom indexes, and Wednesday’s results could spark protests from the opposition.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Jaime Calle Moreno, Hua Hsieh, Awais Ahmad and Owen Bonertz. Our interview featured editor Agnese Boffano and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe