This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Oct. 10

In this week’s forecast we’ve got U.S. airports screening for Marburg virus, Ukraine’s President Zelensyy presenting his “victory plan,” Taiwan’s former president visiting Prague, a second round of polio vaccinations in Gaza and the U.K. holding an international investment summit. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Marburg outbreak in Rwanda

Information compiled by Jeff Landset

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the Marburg virus outbreak in Rwanda. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Jeff Landset.

JIMMY: Hello, Jeff, 

JEFF: Hi, Jimmy, how are you? 

JIMMY: I'm well, and I'm glad you're here. I heard you put together a Flash Briefing on the Marburg outbreak for our clients, and I was hoping you could get our listeners up to speed as well. Can you give us a bit of a recap on the situation?

JEFF: Sure. You may be hearing about this virus for the first time, it's starting to kind of populate through the news, but it is not a new virus. It has been around since 1967, but it is very similar to Ebola. It causes a violent fever and the fatality rate is said to be about 50% and it could be as high as 88%, depending on the situation. While it is similar to Ebola, it is not similar to covid in the sense that it is bodily fluids that it's transmitted through. And so, what you may be hearing for the first time is that Rwanda has announced several cases and some of them have been fatal. That began late last month.

JIMMY: And what's the latest? There been any new developments? 

JEFF: Sure, yeah. So, the US is taking this very seriously. They have announced that air travelers entering the country who had been in Rwanda in the past 21 days will now be sent to one of three airports – Chicago, New York or DC, so they can be screened. And so this is a situation that the US is taking very seriously and being very proactive with.

JIMMY: What other sort of reactions to the outbreak have you seen?

JEFF: Like I said, they're being very proactive about this. There haven't been any cases outside of Rwanda in this current outbreak at this time. And so, people are looking at this, and they're also seeing that there is a bit of an uproar that there isn't an approved vaccine or treatment for Marburg virus, despite the fact that it's been around for several decades. 

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

JEFF: So there have been a handful of virus outbreaks like this before, but since that time, there have been four, basically one every year. So experts are saying that situations like this will happen more because of climate change and deforestation. There have been several reports that because of climate change and deforestation, people will come in contact with animals that they otherwise wouldn't have. And viruses like these are transmitted and found in and originate from certain animals. For example, you know, this Marburg virus comes from fruit bats. And so, with the changes in our climate, these fruit bats may be losing places where they live and may be forced to enter where humans have traditionally been. And so that is another change that we're seeing. Another thing to watch is, you know, obviously, we're just days away from the US election. If the US screening does, in fact, work, and it does catch a case of Marburg virus before, you know, it gets into the US, that could obviously become very politicized, especially with the rhetoric being tossed around about immigration in this country for this election season.

JIMMY: Well, Jeff we’ll pause there for today, but thanks so much for getting us caught up on what we need to know. Appreciate it.

JEFF: No problem. Thank you.

Zelenskyy to present “victory plan” at Ramstein meeting

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: On Saturday, Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy will outline Kyiv’s opening proposal to end the war with Russia.

Zelenskyy has described the proposal as “clear, specific steps for a just end to the war.” 

He will present the plan to Ukraine’s allies in Germany at a recurring meeting between Ukraine and NATO allies at the U.S. air base in Ramstein. 

Direct and realistic diplomatic discussions between Kyiv and Moscow have been a rarity since Russia launched its full invasion nearly 1,000 days ago. 

What’s more, talks aimed at reaching a broad ceasefire arrangement have been nonexistent since the first weeks of the war.

Now, Russia has continued to pursue maximalist war aims and has cratered multiple lower-level agreements throughout the course of the war.

That included repeatedly bombing agreed upon humanitarian corridors as well as striking Ukrainian port infrastructure after unilaterally ending the Black Sea grain initiative. 

Ukraine, for its part, has also maintained an uncompromising position regarding the potential need to diplomatically cede territory conquered by Russia which amounts to more than a quarter of its territory. 

And that’s a number that continues to grow as Russia’s eastern offensives gain steam. 

Of course, while both sides posture to gain leverage in potential negotiations, including Ukraine’s operation to occupy parts of Russia’s Kursk region, the casualty tolls are reaching staggering levels. 

An estimated one million Ukrainians and Russians have been killed or wounded in this war, providing further credence to the notion that a diplomatic solution will ultimately be needed to freeze the conflict.

Former Taiwan president to visit Prague

Information compiled by Hua Hsieh

JIMMY: Taiwan’s former president Tsai Ing-wen will speak at the Forum 2000 conference in the Czech Republic starting Sunday.

This trip will mark Tsai’s first overseas trip since stepping down in May. 

Tsai, who Beijing has long opposed and called “separatist,” remains a influential political figure in Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party. 

His speech in Prague is expected to focus on freedom, democracy and human rights. 

His office calls the Czech Republic “a close partner in economic and cultural cooperation with shared values.” 

Like most overseas visits by Taiwanese officials, the announcement of the trip has been kept relatively low-profile, with few details disclosed, likely due to the risk of Beijing interfering. 

According to Reuters, Tsai is also likely to visit France and Belgium during his trip. 

Taiwan's presidential office said President Lai Ching-te fully supports Tsai’s visit and that he hopes to deepen bilateral relations between Taiwan and Europe. 

Now, while the Czech Republic has no official diplomatic ties with Taiwan, Prague has significantly increased its engagement with the island country since 2020.

That has included more frequent parliamentary visits and collaboration in establishing a semiconductor research center earlier this year.  

Of course, with Tsai no longer in office, the trip is likely to bear more symbolic value than substantive results. 

Nevertheless, as China disapproves of any official exchange between Taiwan and other countries and has in the past imposed economic sanctions against those deemed “too friendly” with Taiwan, analysts say a similar response to Tsai’s Europe trip would not be surprising.

Second round of polio vaccination campaign in Gaza

Information compiled by Agnese Boffano

JIMMY: The World Health Organization has asked Israel to allow for a second round of vaccinations against polio in the Gaza Strip.

They aim to begin that round on Monday.

The disease returned to the Gaza Strip after being free of polio for 25 years.

That, following the continued destruction of water and waste management infrastructure, as well as crowded living conditions in makeshift refugee camps, which aided the spread of the highly contagious disease. 

Around 560,000 children were vaccinated in the first round of the campaign that ended in mid-September.

And, although there were some security incidents involving Israeli forces, the campaign was largely deemed to have been safely executed.

Now, a United Nations spokesperson said the aim is to vaccinate approximately 640,000 children across the Gaza Strip. Vitamin supplements will also be distributed. 

According to reports from The World Health Organization, aid agencies will ask Israel to allow for a similar scheme as in the first round where Israel and Palestinian militants agree to “tactical pauses” of fighting. 

Health authorities will likely assign a specific area for the humanitarian pause on a rotation basis for about nine hours to allow for the “safety of the communities and health workers.”

U.K. holds international investment summit

Information compiled by Irene Villora

JIMMY: The United Kingdom will host an international investment summit on Monday. It’s part of the government’s growth strategy.

This is the first international summit held by Keir Starmer’s government since Labour won the general election in July.

It will feature the participation of up to 300 industry leaders, including representatives of U.S. tech giant Google, and sponsorship by financial entities such as Lloyds Bank, HSBC and Barclays. 

Among others, the event will feature speeches from Alphabet President Ruth Porat and Brookfield Asset Management Chief Executive Bruce Flatt. 

Now, the event aims to attract foreign investment into the country to facilitate the government’s economic growth agenda amid an ongoing cost-of-living crisis. 

Prime Minister Starmer has said this summit will be an opportunity to demonstrate the government’s long-term plans to stabilize and grow the economy and secure business partnerships. 

Finally, reports suggest that a new cross-government investment agency in the works could be unveiled during the summit.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Alex Moore, Hua Hsieh, Agnese Boffano and Irene Villora. Our interview featured editor Jeff Landset and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

Copyright © 2024 Factal. All rights reserved.

Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe