This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Oct. 17.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got diplomatic tensions between India and Canada, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visiting Turkey, an election in Moldova, a BRICS summit in Russia and France hosting a conference on Lebanon. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

India-Canada tensions

Information compiled by Joe Veyera

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the diplomatic tensions between Canada and India. For more on that I’ve got our North America lead, Joe Veyera. 

JIMMY: Hello, Joe.

JOE: Hey, Jimmy. How’s it going?

JIMMY: It’s good. I’m glad you’re here. We’ve got a pretty interesting situation involving our neighbor to the north. So, what’s going on in Canada? Can you give us a bit of a recap on the situation? 

JOE: Yeah, so this latest diplomatic tit-for-tat ramped up on Monday, when Canada expelled six Indian diplomats in connection with the June 2023 assassination of Sikh cleric Hardeep Singh Nijjar in metro Vancouver. Nijjar was involved in the pro-Khalistan movement, which calls for an independent Sikh state in India, and is actually banned in that country. So what we saw this week was Canadian officials claiming the Indian government was involved in his death — something Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has previously said — as well as extortion and other violent acts targeting dissidents. India has responded in kind, ordering six Canadian diplomats to leave the country by Saturday night, while calling the allegations preposterous and claiming Trudeau is pandering to the Sikh community for political gain. And to that end, Canada is home to the largest Sikh diaspora outside India with approximately 770,000 people living in the country, about two percent of the population. The head of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police acknowledged the gravity of making these declarations public, and said they did so because of “a significant threat to public safety in our country,” and also that there had been at least a dozen credible threats against Sikh community members.

JIMMY: Well what’s the latest? Any new developments?

JOE: So, both the United States and the United Kingdom have urged India to cooperate with Canada’s legal process, and the U.S. has particular stake here after prosecutors claimed last year that an Indian government official was behind a failed plot to assassinate another Sikh separatist leader on American soil.

JIMMY: Oh. Well, what sort of reactions to the situation have you seen?

JOE: Analysts are viewing this latest downturn as unprecedented. Obviously bilateral relations have their ups and downs especially as governments change, but this level of friction is different, and really boils down to India seeing the pro-Khalistan movement as a dangerous secessionist threat plotting violence, while Canada views it as dissent and protected free speech. And at least for now, neither side seems willing to budge.

JIMMY: Well, considering that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

JOE: Well, there’s some pressure on Canada to release more details of its investigation, because of the seriousness of the claims they’re making, but there’s also at least a bit of pressure on other world powers to take a more vocal stand against transnational repression and the targeting of dissidents in their own countries. But on the part of Canada-India relations, it’s difficult to say what comes next because we’re in uncharted territory.

JIMMY: Well, Joe, we’ll need to pause there for today, but thank you so much for your time and for keeping us informed. Appreciate it. 

JOE: Thanks for having me.

Germany's Scholz to meet with Erdogan in Istanbul

Information compiled by Jeff Landset

JIMMY: Turkish President Erdogan will host German Chancellor Scholz in Istanbul on Saturday. 

The meeting comes amid the continuing crises in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Scholz and Erdogan have maintained a strong relationship, meeting several times since Scholz took office in Dec. 2021. That, despite a difference in opinions that have come to light in recent months. 

Scholz was the first foreign leader to visit Israel after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack last year. 

Erdogan, meanwhile, has used escalating rhetoric criticizing Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. 

Turkey has also maintained a desire to join the European Union, but ongoing roadblocks have prompted the nation to instead reach out to Russia and the BRICS alliance despite expressing “unwavering” support for Ukraine. 

Now, Scholz is expected to urge Turkey to help stabilize the Middle East. 

Germany is also said to have softened its stance on letting Turkey purchase Eurofighter fighter jets. 

Depending on the outcome of this weekend’s talks, Germany may help bring Turkey into a more diplomatic role with the two conflicts and align closer with the West. All that, while also recalibrating defense and economic ties between Turkey and the EU.

Moldova presidential election and referendum

Information compiled by Vivian Wang

JIMMY: Voters in the Republic of Moldova will head to the polls Sunday. 

They’ll vote not only for a potential new president, but also on a referendum on whether the small country should join the European Union.

Incumbent pro-Western President Maia Sandu is seeking a second term after winning office in 2020. 

Her center-right Party of Action and Solidarity currently holds a majority in parliament. 

Sandu will face off against a record 10 other candidates, including pro-Russia Alexander Stoianoglo and Renato Usatii, who wants to balance ties with Russia and the West. 

Now, recent polling suggests Sandu will likely secure both her position and a mandate for the country to join the EU. 

Still, a weak result for Sandu could affect parliamentary elections for her party next year. 

It’s also important to note that a “no” vote on the referendum would not be binding. 

Finally, both the Moldovan government and the European Parliament have condemned Russia for apparently attempting to sway the elections via vote bribery and information warfare.

BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: Russia will host the 25th BRICS summit beginning Tuesday in Russia. 

It will take place in Kazan, the capital of the southwest province of Tatarstan.

BRICS was founded in the wake of the late-2000s global financial collapse, and was initially composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. 

It sought to create an alternative to the western-led global financial architecture. 

This year’s summit will be the first to include Egypt and Iran, the so-called BRICS+ members, as well as a multitude of other countries that are considering membership.

Now, the meeting being held in Russia this year is indicative of the fractures that exist within the group regarding the purposes of the arrangement. 

While conceived to boost the influence of developing economies in global financial systems, the group has since become a geopolitical tool for Moscow and Beijing to oppose their shared western adversaries. 

Russia, for its part, will use this year’s summit to push for alternate international payment pathways in order to skirt sanctions imposed against it via western financial mechanisms.

France to hold Lebanon conference

Information compiled by Agnese Boffano

JIMMY: France will host a conference on Lebanon next Thursday.

Paris, of course, has maintained ties with Lebanon since the country was made a French mandate by the League of Nations shortly after the First World War. 

France engaged in recent negotiation talks between Israel and Lebanon that stalled toward the end of September* when Israel’s heavy bombing campaign of Beirut’s southern suburbs killed Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. 

Now, France said the conference will focus on both the political situation in Lebanon and the need to “mobilize the international community.” 

The latter, to provide humanitarian aid as Israel’s ongoing bombing campaign and ground offensive in southern Lebanon has led to the displacement of more than 1.2 million people. 

Israel has reportedly not been invited to the talks, which are instead set to be attended by regional and international partners of Lebanon as well as members of the civil society and the United Nations.

* Correction: The podcast originally contained an error at about the 7:45 mark. Jimmy misstated when France's recent negotiation talks between Israel and Lebanon stalled. It was September, not December. The audio has been updated accordingly. 

JIMMY: One final note for you: Like many podcasts we include a transcript each episode. What you might not know, is that every transcript includes links to multiple news articles and other sources. We pack an awful lot of news into 10 minutes and want to make it as easy as possible for you to get additional information.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Jeff Landset, Vivian Wang, Alex Moore and Agnese Boffano. Our interview featured editor Joe Veyera and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe