This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is October 24.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, elections in Japan, Botswana and Eastern Europe’s Georgia, and the United Kingdom’s upcoming budget.

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Killing of Hamas’ Yahya Sinwar

Information compiled by Agnese Boffano

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the recent killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. For more on that I’ve got fellow editor Agnese Boffano.

JIMMY: Hello, Agnese 

AGNESE: Morning, Jimmy. 

JIMMY: Agnese, I'm so glad you're with us again this morning. I'm hoping you can get us up to speed on this situation with the Hamas leader. So what can you tell us about it? 

AGNESE: I think maybe we should start with what actually happened during the actual operation. So this was last Wednesday, on the 16th of October, and basically a platoon made up of trainee squad commanders from an Israeli infantry school was just conducting a routine surveillance operation in the area of Tal al-Sultan, which is just east of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. And it appears as though this unit identified three Palestinian militants in the area and decided to engage in fighting. And according to reports, it appears as though two, who were presumably Yahya Sinwar's bodyguards, were killed during this initial exchange of fire, but Sinwar himself was able to escape to a nearby building, where we then saw an Israeli surveillance drone kind of surveilling the building and inside we could see a wounded Sinwar. Now at this point, the Israelis were not aware of the high target that they were actually closing in on, but the next day or so, on Thursday, they finally managed to enter the building. And after a few hours, where we had chatter about his death on social media and such, the DNA results came back and they confirmed that it was indeed Yahya Sinwar, you know, the Hamas leader, who was killed.

JIMMY: And how about the latest? There been any new developments?

AGNESE: There's definitely been a lot of speculation surrounding his death. We have an Israeli autopsy from a few days later that determined the cause of death to be a gunshot wound to the head. And you know, indeed, the pictures that we've seen circulating on social media, they do show the body of Yahya Sinwar with a severe wound to the head. But we haven't actually been shown the exact moment of when he was killed. And Hamas also confirmed his death. But some, you know, some Palestinian reports are claiming that he died from a self-inflicted gunshot to the head in order not to be captured alive. And then Israel, of course, has not acknowledged this, and nor has it come out with any more detailed information. So still a bit of a gray area there.

JIMMY: What sort of reactions to the killing have you seen?

AGNESE: Sinwar's death has definitely been received with two narratives in the region, as most things tend to be done there. So in Israel, the death is, of course, seen as a great symbolic victory. You know, most Israeli media outlets have described him over the past year as being the mastermind behind the October 7 attack last year. And so his elimination has definitely been a massive boost for the war effort, but also specifically for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who's been kind of emphasizing the fact that he died alone and he died with no bodyguards around as an example of – he's been using that as an example of the extent of manpower problems that Hamas is having, understandably, after more than a year of constant air strikes, you know. But then, on the other hand, you have the narrative among Palestinians and regional countries who have known Sinwar for decades, and his death has kind of nullified a lot of Israeli propaganda that the government had been pumping out about Sinwar over the past year, including: You know, they've kept saying he was hiding in tunnels, which, at the time of his death, he was not. He was seen fighting in military gear on the front line. The reports that he was disguised in order to avoid capture. That he was hiding among dozens of captives. And as well, that the Shin Bet and the Israeli security apparatus knew exactly where he was, but purposely chose not to target him so as not to endanger the hostages, when in fact, you know, his death – we saw that he was killed during a chance encounter. So really, the final moments of Sinwar kind of allowed the Israelis to inadvertently immortalize the Palestinian leader. They're now calling him a martyr with, you know, the rhetoric of someone who died fighting, even if it was by throwing a simple stick at the Israeli drone towards the very end, as we saw from the footage. 

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

AGNESE: Well, first of all, we'll have to see what impact Sinwar's death is actually going to have on the group. Hamas has maintained that it would not disrupt the militant group's capabilities and that it will continue to resist Israeli rule, despite Israel, of course, saying that this was a massive blow for Hamas. And it was a massive blow for the group. But, you know, we're dealing with movements that have an agenda of resistance to an occupation that just generally has a very broad popular constituency among Palestinian society. So the idea that the support comes from a single leader, whether that's Yahya Sinwar or Haniyeh or previously Arafat, or the idea that the removal of such a leader would signify an end the group, really is unrealistic, and especially because Hamas is becoming, and has been becoming, over the past year, an increasingly decentralized organization. And you know, it's not likely to lose the willingness to fight. We have decades of examples of this, where Hamas leaders have been assassinated by Israel, including back in 2004 if you remember, the assassination of the founder Sheikh Yassin and just a few days later his successor, al-Rantisi, and yet we've never seen an indication that the group then, you know, proceeded to change its course. But of course, you know, the military impact that Sinwar's death will have on the group will be significant. But Hamas continues to have political influence, because when Sinwar was appointed Gaza leader following the assassination of Haniyeh, the structure was specifically rearranged so that Hamas would be able to manage its political affairs, you know, independently of him, because they knew the difficulties that they would have with regards to the communication between Sinwar inside Gaza and the political leaders in the diaspora. But you know, so what we're watching for next as well is the fact that, you know, most people are expecting Hamas to select a new leader. And we do have some probable candidates. These are either Khalil al-Hayya, who has been Sinwar's deputy and has plenty of engagement in this round and also previous rounds of negotiations, or it might be a man called Khaled Mashaal, he's been heading the group's diaspora constituency from Qatar. Both of these men are seen as less of hardliners than Sinwar was. And why this is important, you know, aside from dictating how they'll lead the Gaza front of the war in the coming months, it's also important because it will definitely point towards the direction that the group might decide to take in any possible ceasefire negotiation that might come, especially with the new US administration following the elections in November,

JIMMY: Well, Agnese, we'll pause there for today, but thank you again for your time and for keeping us up to date. Always appreciate it.

AGNESE: Thanks, Jimmy.

Georgia elections

Information compiled by James Morgan

JIMMY: Georgians will vote in the country’s parliamentary election on Saturday. The ruling Georgian Dream party is seeking to consolidate power by winning a fourth term in office.

Opposition groups, however, say another win for the Georgian Dream party could derail Georgia’s aspirations for EU integration. 

In recent years, Georgian Dream has favored policies that have been perceived as anti-western and Russia-aligned. 

The adoption of the so-called “foreign agents” bill and a law curbing the rights of LGBT individuals in the country has driven a wedge between Georgia and the West, effectively freezing integration talks with the European Union. 

The policies have also triggered mass protests across the country with critics accusing the government of adopting Kremlin-like legislation and undermining democracy. 

As part of its campaign, Georgian Dream has sought to portray the elections as a choice between war and peace, implying that a win for the pro-western opposition could drag Georgia into the war in Ukraine.

Now, a win for Georgian Dream would likely mean a continuation of pro-Russian narratives in the country and the adoption of legislation that undermines democracy and curbs freedom. 

Given the level of polarization in Georgian society, protests around the election are very likely with a high risk of escalation to violent clashes, especially in the capital Tbilisi.

Japan general elections

Information compiled by Hua Hsieh

JIMMY: All 465 seats in Japan’s Lower House of Representatives will be up for grabs on Sunday.

The general election, which is set to take place a year earlier than most expected, follows the surprise resignation of Japan’s former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. 

He stepped down in August – an attempt to regain public trust. That, as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s approval rating plummeted over a series of political scandals and rising inflation. 

Then, shortly after winning the divisive LDP leadership race in late September, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba called for a snap election – a gamble seeking to solidify his support within the party.

The LDP, in coalition with the Komeito party, has dominated most of Japan’s post-war political landscape.

Now, with a divided opposition, many believe that the LDP will again return to office. 

It remains the most popular party in Japan even in such times of economic challenges and political turmoil. 

A poll last weekend by Kyodo News put the LDP way ahead of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party.  

Still, others have suggested that the party could struggle or even fail to retain a majority in the lower house. 

The upcoming election is not only an important test for Ishiba, determining whether he would be seen as capable of leading the divided party, but also have a profound impact on Japan’s economy and fragmented political scene.

Botswana elections

Information compiled by Jimmy Lovaas

JIMMY: Botswana will hold general elections on Wednesday. President Mokgweetsi Masisi hopes to secure his second and final term in office.

Masisi took office in the 2019 elections and his Botswana Democratic Party has been the country’s ruling party since it gained independence from the United Kingdom in 1966. 

And while the runup to the election has been peaceful, the electoral agency has warned opposition parties to stop making vote rigging allegations. 

There was also an issue with early voting in some locations with reports of irregularities, including a lack of paper ballots.

Now, the Botswana Democratic Party looks poised to win, in part due to a divided opposition. 

Still, the opposition could possibly pull off an upset, considering former President Ian Khama – who hand-picked Masisi as his successor – has returned to Botswana from exile and is campaigning for the opposition.

U.K. budget

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: Britain’s finance minister will deliver a much-anticipated budget on Wednesday. It’s an effort to plug a hole in the country’s finances that may be as large as $52 billion (£40 billion).

Rachel Reeves, who is the first woman to head up the UK’s finance ministry, was appointed when Britain’s Labour Party came to power in July in a general election that ended 14 years of Conservative Party rule. 

After a rocky first 100 days in office, it’s Labour’s first major policy test as it unveils its spending plans for the country. 

Those plans are likely to include changes to tax structures and cuts to government department budgets. 

Labour has promised there will not be a return to the austerity measures imposed by previous governments. 

Still, the scale of the problem looms large over Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s plan to stabilize the country’s finances and fix the ailing National Health Service.

Now, details of the budget won’t be known until Reeves presents it in Parliament. 

Nonetheless, there has been a great deal of speculation on how far Reeves will go, with talk of changes to inheritance tax, fuel duty and a hike in rates for high earners.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors James Morgan, Hua Hsieh, and David Wyllie. Our interview featured editor Agnese Boffano and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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