This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Oct. 31

In this week’s forecast we’ve got the US election, Affordable Care Act open enrollment in the US, UK Conservatives announcing a new leader, a presidential runoff election in Moldova and the state assembly of Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir beginning its session.

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

U.S. election

Information compiled by Joe Veyera

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at next week’s U.S. election. For more on that I’ve got our North America lead, Joe Veyera.

JIMMY: Hello, Joe.

JOE: Hey, Jimmy. Can you believe we're finally here?

JIMMY  It does - it does feel like it's been an exceptionally long year leading up to this. And I'm glad you're here. I'm hoping you can get us caught up on what's been going on. So, kind of, you know, let us know where we're at.

JOE: Of course. So, as of Wednesday, around 55 million ballots had already been cast, according to a tracker published by NBC, and so for all intents and purposes, this presidential election is going to come down to seven swing states. You've got the Sun Belt of Arizona, Nevada and Georgia. You've got North Carolina and the traditional blue wall of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – that Democrats have relied on in the past to help get them to the 270 electoral votes they need. Meanwhile, it seems likely that Republicans will take control of the Senate by flipping Joe Manchin's seat in West Virginia, and the polling is also favorable to them in Montana, where Democrat Jon Tester is trying to hold on. But on the flip side, Republicans could lose their house majority if Democrats make gains there, and we'll be watching New York and California specifically on that front.

JIMMY: What about the latest? You seen any, well, I can't believe I'm going to ask this, but have there been any new developments in the last bit here?

JOE: So, let's take a look at the, kind of, security aspect of this now that we've got an idea of where, you know, this election is going to be won or lost. So we go back to September, where suspicious packages were sent to 20 state election offices. None of those had hazardous substances, and that's obviously the big concern in those cases, and we haven't seen anything like that in the past several weeks. The big stories were the destruction of ballot boxes in southwest Washington state and in Portland, Ore., earlier this week that destroyed hundreds of ballots. The Department of Homeland Security in the months leading up to this had flagged drop boxes as a potential target for attacks before election day, and sure enough, that's what happened. We're still waiting to find out more about, you know, what the potential motive could have been on this and if it was just a lone actor sort of attack, which is another thing the DHS did raise concerns about. So that's one thing to follow. The other interesting development this week was Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo activating National Guard troops for election day. It's only 60, but they're going to be expected to help out with, like, security at polling stations and things like that. And just to go all the way back to 2020, we've seen a lot of new security measures put in place at election offices across the country. These are things like bulletproof glass and ventilation systems to protect against any airborne threats that may be mailed in. So a lot has happened. And you know, we can only wait and see what happens before Tuesday. 

JIMMY: What kind of reactions have you seen to this – to this build up?

JOE: So the one that I thought was kind of interesting was the response by the Washington State GOP in the wake of the ballot box destruction. They've kind of used that as an opportunity to claim that mail-in voting is not secure, citing broken chain of custody issues, in their words, and that that state needs to go back to in-person same-day voting. That said, it does appear that Republicans have taken more to mail-in and early voting than they have in past election cycles, despite claims from President Trump and the GOP in previous election cycles that it was a – not the best way to go about conducting an election.

JIMMY: And I hate to put you on the spot here, but I have to, like I do every week, and just ask you, you know, what do you think folks ought to be watching for in this next week here?

JOE: Hoo! How long do we have, Jimmy?

JIMMY: Short podcast, Joe.

JOE: You know, I think one thing is, do any other states follow Nevada's lead on National Guard deployments? And if they do, what does that look like? But I think the biggest thing I'm going to be watching for is, on Tuesday night, does President Trump, former President Trump, claim victory with the result very much undecided? And then, what does that mean for the following days? I think all indications are, with all of the polling in those seven aforementioned swing states being so close, we're more than likely not going to have a clear winner on election night. So, If Trump were to say that he had won, and then leads that he may have then evaporate as more ballots are counted, what does that mean? It's – it's hard to say, but it's something we're going to have to monitor really closely.

JIMMY: Well, Joe, that's as good a place as any to pause for this week, but I'm sure we’ll have you back in the coming week if needs be. But thank you so much for keeping us plugged in. Always appreciate it.

JOE: Always a pleasure.

Open enrollment begins for US healthcare marketplace

Information compiled by Vivian Wang

JIMMY: Affordable Care Act open enrollment begins in the US tomorrow. 

Americans looking to buy individual health coverage on ACA insurance marketplaces will be able to enroll through Jan. 15.

More than 21 million people signed up for health insurance through ACA marketplaces last year, breaking the previous year’s record of 16.3 million. 

Participation swelled thanks to Democrat-led tax breaks making lower-cost plans more accessible. 

Participation also grew because millions of people disenrolled from Medicaid last year were left scrambling to get healthcare.

Now, the Biden-Harris administration finalized policies to extend eligibility to DACA recipients to enroll in ACA marketplaces for the first time this year, but that could change if 19 states challenging the new rule in federal court successfully make their case. 

The outcome of the upcoming election may also put the program and the subsidies supporting insurance-buyers at risk, with former President Trump routinely threatening to replace the ACA and end enhanced subsidies.

UK Conservatives announce new leader

Information compiled by Hua Hsieh

JIMMY: The UK’s Conservative Party will announce its new leader on Saturday.

Following former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s resignation in the wake of the Conservative Party’s general election defeat in July, members of parliament have been grappling for the party’s top job. 

In a surprise result earlier this month, Robert Jenrick and Kemi Bandenoch advanced to the final round of the leadership race, eliminating James Cleverly, who was seen by many as the most likely successor of Sunak. 

Jenrick, the former immigration minister, had notably resigned from Sunak’s cabinet, saying the government’s Rwanda legislation “didn't go far enough.” 

He had also promised to pull the UK out of the European Convention on Human Rights in order to expel asylum seekers. 

Former business secretary Badenoch, on the other hand, has framed her campaign around returning to “core Conservative values” and telling hard truths, her articulations seen by some as abrasive, especially when expressing her “anti-woke” values.

Now, with both candidates seen as appealing to the right of the Conservative Party, many MPs that backed centrist candidate Cleverly have voiced their concerns on the direction the party would take looking forward, and whether either of the candidates can unite the party following setbacks in the general election. 

Marking the end of UK politics’ post-election period, the winner of the race will no doubt play a significant role in shaping the country’s political landscape in the years to come.

Moldovan presidential runoff

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: The second round of Moldova’s presidential election will be held on Sunday.

This weekend’s vote quickly follows the first round from two weeks ago in which incumbent pro-western President Maia Sandu handily won a plurality of votes. 

She will face off against second place finisher Aleksandr Stoianoglo, backed by the traditionally pro-Russian Socialist Party. 

Moldovans also voted by a razor thin margin of 50.46 percent to back EU accession in a shockingly close referendum characterized by “unprecedented” Russian interference.

Now, the close EU accession referendum served as a disappointment for Sandu who had hoped voters would resoundingly grant tacit approval to her plan to guide Moldova into the EU by 2030. 

While not as direct, this second round will provide voters with another opportunity to grant Sandu and her pro-western government a mandate – a mandate, to continue the process of removing the former Soviet colony from Moscow’s orbit as Russia attempts to interfere in the vote to prevent it.

Jammu and Kashmir assembly session begins

Information compiled by Awais Ahmad

JIMMY: The state assembly of Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir will begin its session Monday. 

That, after the National Conference party secured a victory in the region’s first polls since 2014. 

The 5-day session will include the election of the speaker and deputy speaker as well as an address by the lieutenant governor. 

The speaker is likely to belong to the National Conference, which won 42 of the legislature’s 90 seats in the recent elections against its main opposition Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Now, among the most important items on the agenda are plans by the National Conference to introduce a resolution to return the region to its statehood status. 

That status was stripped by Modi in 2019, revoking the territory of most of its autonomy. 

The BJP, however, says it will oppose any efforts to do so. 

It remains to be seen whether the National Conference will be able to achieve its objectives with a federally backed opposition.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Vivian Wang, Hua Hsieh, Alex Moore and Awais Ahmad. Our interview featured editor Joe Veyera and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe