This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Nov. 7

In this week’s forecast we’ve got North Korean military activity, Bolivia’s political crisis, the Greek and Turkish foreign ministers meeting, and elections in Somaliland and Sri Lanka. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

North Korean military activity

Information compiled by Vivian Wang.

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at North Korea’s recent provocative actions. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Vivian Wang. 

JIMMY: Hello, Vivian.

VIVIAN: Hi, Jimmy. 

JIMMY: Well, Vivian, a lot of geopolitical news lately, not the least of which, however, is what’s been happening in North Korea. Hoping you can get us up to speed with all that. So, what’s been going on?

VIVIAN: Yeah, it has been such a year. I’ll start off on the lighter end. We have my favorite, the trash balloon saga - North Korea’s floated thousands of balloons carrying trash across the border into South Korea since May. Right now they mostly just pose a nuisance to South Korea, but two have landed on the presidential compound in Seoul, which is raising some obvious concerns about security. And then on the more menacing end are the continuing breakdown in inter-Korean relations, the rising hostility in North Korean rhetoric, and North Korea’s growing partnership with Russia. A lot has happened.

JIMMY: Well, what’s the latest there? Any new developments?

VIVIAN: Yeah. Let’s see how much ground I can cover here. So first off, most recently, North Korea launched their first ICBM this year, which reached a record distance and flight time - it was launched at a lofted angle and flew around 1,000 kilometers, or about 620 miles, in 87 minutes. And then they fired, I believe seven short-range ballistic missiles for good measure on the eve of the US elections. Then last month, North Korea blew up several inter-Korean roads and railways at the border – those were once seen as symbols of inter-Korean cooperation, and they’re reportedly also now digging trenches at the border. And then of course, also in the spotlight is North Korea getting involved in Russia’s war on Ukraine - they’ve sent troops, and Russia’s parliament just ratified a strategic partnership between Russia and North Korea. And, last but not least, while North Korea’s been banging on the nuclear weapons drum for a while, it’s picked up some new urgency because they are being much more direct and open about their ambitions and the scale of their development now. They released their first-ever images of a uranium-enrichment facility in September, their UN envoy literally told the security council that they are accelerating their nuclear weapons program. It’s not subtle.

JIMMY: What sort of reactions to all this are you seeing?

VIVIAN: So, it’s the routine stuff - the US, South Korea, and Japan are understandably worried about all this hostility from North Korea, and they’re condemning every launch, especially the ICBM, and every threat. The EU and South Korea are condemning North Korea’s support for Russia. There’s just plenties condemn all around. And, South Korea has resumed military activity at the border after suspending a 2018 military agreement over the trash balloons, and North Korea recently accused them of sending drones into Pyongyang to scatter anti-North Korea propaganda.

JIMMY: Well, you know, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

VIVIAN: Well, I’ve said this before, many more have said this before - North Korea is going to conduct that nuclear test, it’s just a matter of when. They’ve been ready since at least 2022, and they’ve made no concessions on disarmament or denuclearization - if anything, they’ve gotten more direct, open and hostile about building out and using their nuclear arsenal. And as always we are going to keep seeing more weapons tests, probably more trash balloons. I suppose one wild card in the mix now is the re-election of President Trump, but North Korea’s suggested that a change in administration for the US probably won’t change much - they still see the US and South Korea as hostile entities. We’re also watching to see how that partnership between Russia and North Korea plays out - their new treaty obliges both parties to provide military assistance if either is attacked, and I’m interested to see what North Korea is getting in return for sending troops to Ukraine.

JIMMY: Well, Vivian, that seems like a good place to pause, but as always, thanks for your time and for keeping an eye on things for us. Appreciate it. 

VIVIAN: Thanks for having me on, Jimmy.

Bolivia president issues government report amid political crisis

Information compiled by Irene Villora

JIMMY: Bolivian President Luis Arce will present his administration’s penultimate government report tomorrow.

It comes four years into his term and ahead of the 2025 presidential election, which is due in August. 

He’ll present it in front of the country’s parliament amid political tensions marked by protests against an arrest warrant issued for former President Evo Morales.

Morales is facing charges of statutory rape and human trafficking. 

Pro-Morales protesters have been blocking multiple roads in the country since October, often engaging in clashes with police and detaining soldiers in at least one instance.

Now, Arce’s administration officials have accused the pro-Morales protesters of boycotting the current government as protest blockades add pressure on the country’s economy. 

That economy is already strained by fuel shortages, a rise in the price of basic products and wildfires that have destroyed millions of acres. 

On the political front, Arce faces an ongoing division inside his Movement for Socialism party with the pro-Morales sector accusing him of abuse of power. 

Morales, who led the country between 2006 and 2019, has challenged the country’s laws and all of his successors in his aim to run for office again.

Greek, Turkish foreign ministers to meet

Information compiled by Awais Ahmad

JIMMY: Greek Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis will meet his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan in Athens on Friday.

The meeting comes amid recent easing of tensions between the two countries.

They’ve had a fraught relationship for decades over matters of airspace and maritime jurisdiction in the eastern Mediterranean, energy resources and the Cyprus dispute. 

The prime ministers of both countries met on the sidelines of a UN convention in September and discussed initiating talks on maritime zones.

Now, the foreign ministers are expected to explore an agreement on demarcation of an exclusive economic zone, which is important in determining rights over gas reserves and power infrastructure schemes. 

In addition, the meeting is likely to provide a pathway to resume reunification talks in relation to Cyprus which fell through in 2017.

Somaliland presidential election

Information compiled by Owen Bonertz

JIMMY: Somaliland, the breakaway region in northern Somalia, will hold a presidential election on Wednesday. It comes roughly two years after it was initially scheduled.

Somaliland declared de-facto independence from the rest of Somalia in 1991 after clan rivalries and diverging colonial history sparked an independence war with the Somali government in Mogadishu. 

Somaliland’s government is only officially recognized by Ethiopia, but it administers all public services and commands a significant fighting force. 

Now, Somaliland’s constitution allows for three parties to seek the presidency. 

Still, the election should come down to incumbent Muse Bihi Abdi’s Kulmiye party and the opposition Waddani party of Abdirahman Mohammed Abdullahi. 

Political allegiance in Somaliland is largely based on clans and subclans, but a Waddani government would likely push for cross-clan power sharing. 

It would also likely take a more nationalist stance against Mogadishu and separatists in Laascaanood. 

Either party is expected to continue the alliance with Ethiopia, with whom they struck a deal in 2024 to share port access. 

International observers will also be monitoring the legitimacy of the vote, as they did in 2017 with positive feedback.

Sri Lanka general election

Information compiled by Hua Hsieh

JIMMY: Sri Lanka will vote for a new parliament next Thursday.

The vote comes less than two months after electing a new president. 

In September, Sri Lankans elected the Marxist-leaning Anura Kumara Dissanayake. 

That, following decades under the political elite that left the country with $37 billion in external debt. 

Pledging to boost Sri Lanka’s economy and bring change for those struggling under austerity measures, Dissanayake emerged from the presidential race at about 42%, against his nearest rival’s 33%. 

Still, Dissanayake’s alliance, the National People's Power, only held three of 255 seats in the legislature, leading him to dissolve the parliament and call for a snap general election shortly after taking oath. 

Now, analysts said Dissanayake's intentions to cut taxes and revisit the terms of an IMF bailout have worried investors, who fear that it could delay future disbursements. 

Another challenge the government would likely face as it looks to bolster foreign investments is navigating its relationships with two of its most important trading partners, China and India. 

Finally, whether the president’s party can take advantage of the momentum and secure enough support in parliament will be crucial to his plans. 

Success in these polls are expected to help Dissanayake pave the way in delivering his promise of lifting Sri Lanka from poverty.

JIMMY: One final note for you, the podcast will be taking next week off. So, our next episode will be out on Nov. 21 

In the meantime, we are a 24-7 newsroom, so be sure to follow us on Twitter, or X as it’s called now, where we’ll still be posting breaking news.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Irene Villora, Awais Ahmad, Owen Bonertz and Hua Hsieh. Our interview featured editor Vivian Wang and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe