This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Nov. 28.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got a ceasefire in Lebanon, Iran holding nuclear talks, Taiwan’s president visiting Pacific allies, a possible strike by Volkswagen workers and California’s governor calling a special session of the legislature. 

You can also read about all these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire

Information compiled by Agnese Boffano

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the situation in Lebanon. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Agnese Boffano.

JIMMY: Hello, Agnese. 

AGNESE: Hey, Jimmy, 

JIMMY: So glad you're here, Agnese. There's been some big news in Lebanon and it seems we finally have a ceasefire. Can you give us a bit of a recap on what's happened and, you know, what this means exactly?

AGNESE: Yeah, the past few days, there's been a lot of talk from officials suggesting that a deal was close. And you're right, it seems as though we really do have one now. So, the Israeli cabinet meeting was holding talks earlier this week and, as I said, there was a lot of speculation about a possible ceasefire agreement being close. And during these days, we saw a considerable uptick in attacks on both sides. You know, we had constant airstrikes in Beirut, even in the central areas, and there were nonstop air raid sirens as well sounding in northern Israel. And it wasn't until about – so, on Tuesday evening, when U.S. President Joe Biden finally confirmed that a ceasefire agreement had been reached between Israel, Lebanon and Hezbollah, and that it would take effect starting on Wednesday morning at 4 a.m. local time. And basically, the agreement stipulates, of course, an end to the fighting, but also the disarmament of southern Lebanon. So it was agreed that the Israeli military would withdraw completely from southern Lebanon, which, if you remember, they occupied a couple of months ago when they began their ground campaign. And likewise, Hezbollah agreed to demilitarize from south of the Litani River, which is approximately 30 kilometers from the border with Israel. And so what will happen in turn, is that the Lebanese army, which is kind of a neutral force that's not really divided along sectarian lines, they would then deploy approximately 56,000 soldiers that they have along its border with Israel and alongside monitoring from the UN and such parties. This would all happen in the next 60 days, essentially. 

JIMMY: And what's the latest? There been any new developments today? 

AGNESE: Yeah, definitely. We've seen a lot of movement in Lebanon, both, you know, we're talking civilian and military. So first of all, we have the civilian population. Remember that the past 14 months of war, since Lebanon entered, we've had approximately the displacement of about 1.2 million people across Lebanon, and this includes people who are either displaced internally or people who have actually fled the country into neighboring Syria. The same situation we have in Israel. We have about 60,000 residents in the north who left their homes when the fighting began with Hezbollah. So what happened was, shortly after the announcement of the ceasefire, when it came into place, and all across on Tuesday, we saw highways completely blocked from families with their cars trying to return to their evacuated towns and neighborhoods, even in Beirut, that they had to flee. For example, Dahiyeh in southern Beirut was essentially depopulated because it sustained such extensive damage during the Israeli campaign. And likewise, we also had on Tuesday, a lot of movement from the different parties involved. So we could see videos of troop deployment by the Lebanese army towards the south, and we also saw statements from both Hezbollah and Israel about their cooperation to initiate their retreat. 

JIMMY: What sort of reactions to all this have you seen, 

AGNESE: I think, by the most part, they've been positive reactions. We've had Lebanese government officials coming out and, or, welcoming the ceasefire. And perhaps even a shift in the response in their – perhaps there's more of a will in Lebanon to, first of all, elect a president, you know, a figurehead, and secondly, also just move on to the restoration aspect of the country. We have to remember that about 3,800 people have been killed in Lebanon over the past year, and that there are entire towns and entire neighborhoods of Beirut that have been completely reduced to rubble. So I think there's a lot of – at least possibility now to, as I said, move into this part of this next stage of the war, you know, the replenishment period. I think likewise, you know, from, if we're talking about the reaction from international partners and neighboring countries, they've also all welcomed this. But of course, it's – it's a fragile situation and I think both Hezbollah and Israel have stressed the fact that, you know, they do welcome the ceasefire, but that they retain the space to, as I said, exercise self defense in the case of any possible breach. So that's still a possibility. But I think overall, everyone seems to be quite hopeful. 

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

AGNESE: So the the next 60 days are definitely going to be crucial. As I said, it's an extremely fragile situation, because you have on the one side, you have Hezbollah retreating. The other side, you have the Israeli army retreating. All of this happening while the Lebanese army is slowly moving in. And as well, you have civilians who are just flooding back south to try and return to their homes. Of course, we're all very hopeful for a smooth 60 days, but we're also just very cautiously pessimistic about this, you know, and especially the logistics of this. And we have something to compare it. If you remember, back in 2006 when there was the war between Lebanon and Israel, we had a similar sort of agreement, with the borders around the UN Blue Line and with the issue of the demilitarization of the area. But the ceasefire clauses back in 2006, they were never quite, you know, they were never quite followed through, which, of course, contributed to the hostilities that continued between the two countries even before the start of the war last year. So I think we're going to have to see whether this instance is going to be another 2006 scenario or something else. And then the last thing I want to say before I end is, of course, one thing to watch for is Gaza, because, although Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, he did talk about the closing of the front with Lebanon as a positive thing – he talked about the the hope that this will return the residents to the north – he also did say that, you know, this would allow Israel to instead focus their energy on Hamas and its ongoing front in Gaza, as well as on the overall problem of Iran. And there are some people in Gaza who are, you know, somewhat hopeful that the Lebanon ceasefire might actually encourage, perhaps, a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip as well. But I think others are also, you know, pessimistic and saying that Netanyahu's rhetoric this week could mean that we might – we might actually be looking at an even more aggressive campaign in the Gaza Strip in the next few months.

JIMMY: Well, Agnese, we'll pause there for today, but as usual, thank you so much for keeping an eye on things for us. We always appreciate it. 

AGNESE: Thanks, Jimmy.

Iran to hold nuclear talks with three European powers in Geneva

Information compiled by Theresa Seiger

JIMMY: Iran’s deputy foreign minister is set to meet up this Friday with his counterparts from France, Germany, and Britain. 

This meeting comes days after the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency passed a resolution – pushed by France, Germany, and Britain, with support from the U.S. – slamming Iran for not cooperating with inspections of its nuclear program.

In response, Iranian officials said the country would ramp up its nuclear activities, raising concerns it could intensify efforts to acquire a nuclear weapon amid broader tensions in the Middle East.

Friday’s talks are expected to cover nuclear and regional issues, including what’s happening in Gaza and Lebanon. 

Iranian officials are calling this meeting a continuation of discussions they had during the UN General Assembly in New York. 

The talks are believed to be aimed at reviving the 2015 nuclear deal. That agreement unraveled after then-President Trump pulled the U.S. out in 2018.

Trump, who is preparing to return to the White House in January, has expressed a willingness to reach a new deal with Iran.  

Taiwan’s president to visit Pacific allies

Information compiled by Hua Hsieh

JIMMY: Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te is gearing up for his first official trip overseas, kicking off this Saturday. 

The trip comes as China looks to expand its influence—militarily, politically, and economically—across the Pacific islands. 

Earlier this year, shortly after Taiwan’s general election in January, Nauru re-established diplomatic relations with Beijing, leaving Taiwan with just 12 formal diplomatic allies.

Lai’s itinerary starts with the Marshall Islands on December 3. He’ll then head to Tuvalu and Palau before wrapping up and heading back to Taipei on December 6. 

While few details were released regarding Lai’s trip, it’s not unusual for Taiwanese officials to make “stop-overs” in the U.S., considering it is Taiwan’s biggest diplomatic and military backer—even though the U.S. doesn’t officially recognize Taiwan. 

Specifics of the trip are likely to only be confirmed last minute due to fear of China interfering.

Reuters is reporting that Lai will probably pass through Hawaii and Guam, both home to major U.S. military bases.

Finally, while the trip is seen as crucial to solidify support of Taiwan’s allies in the region, analysts will also be watching to see how China reacts. After all, the trip is not likely to sit well with Beijing. 

Just last August, China launched military drills around Taiwan after then-vice president Lai made stops in the U.S. on his way to and from Paraguay.

VW workers plan strike

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: Volkswagen workers in Germany may begin a strike on Sunday. 

The main union representing workers at Europe’s largest carmaker is threatening strikes across German plants after talks over wages and factory closures failed to achieve progress. 

Negotiations come after Volkswagen announced its first-ever factory closures in Germany amid economic stagnation and increased competition from abroad. 

Nearly half of VW’s 300,000 employees in Germany are represented in the talks. 

Unions have said they’d consider wage cuts in order to keep factories open, but that hasn’t been enough to avoid the strike threat. If it happens, it would be the first major strike at VW since 2018.

Finally, all this is happening as Germany gears up for early federal elections next year. An election, in which Germany’s continued economic contraction will likely play a major factor.

California governor calls special legislative session

Information compiled by Vivian Wang

JIMMY: California Governor Gavin Newsom is calling a special session of the state legislature on Monday. It’s in response to Donald Trump winning the presidential election. 

The reported goal is to strengthen legal protections on issues Newsom and Trump don’t see eye to eye on.

Newsom called for the session soon after it became apparent Trump would win, pointing to the state’s past disputes with Trump’s first administration over issues like reproductive rights, immigration, and clean vehicle policies. 

Trump has fired back with threats to fight against what he calls California’s “insane policy decisions” on voter ID and water management.

This special session is intended to provide more funding to the California Department of Justice and other executive branch agencies so they’re ready to file lawsuits and challenge policies from the incoming Trump administration. 

Still, while Democratic leaders leaders in California are on board, Republicans in the state are slamming it as a “shameless political stunt.”

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Theresa Seiger, Hua Hsieh, Alex Moore and Vivian Wang. Our interview featured editor Agnese Boffano and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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