This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Dec. 5.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got a political crisis in South Korea, elections in Ghana and Romania, Netherlands imposing some border controls and rail strikes in France.

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

South Korea’s short-lived martial law 

Information compiled by Bada Kim

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the political crisis in South Korea. For more on that we’ve got Factal Managing Editor Bada Kim.

JIMMY: Hello, Bada! So great to finally get you on the podcast.

BADA: Thanks for having me, Jimmy. I'm really excited to be here.

JIMMY: You know, let's just jump into this. Like many of our listeners, I woke up Tuesday morning and saw, well, just a crazy story unfolding in South Korea. I know you were part of the team covering it as it was happening, and I'm hoping you can get our listeners all caught up. So, you know, what exactly happened?

BADA: It was a whirlwind six hours, and a lot happened, so I'll take you through it from the start. So around 10:27 p.m. local, very late on Tuesday, President Yoon Suk-yeol posted a surprise late-night national address declaring an emergency martial law. He said that this was needed to protect the country's democracy from the opposition, which he labeled North Korean communist forces and anti-state forces. Now, I have to stress here that there was no actual threat from North Korea at this time. The language used here instead appears to be, like, an effort to garner support from far-right conservatives, as communist is a term that's often used to describe people with anti-government views. This is important to make clear, as at least from when we're talking right now, North Korea did nothing of note to South Korea during these six hours or just beforehand. So when the announcement was made by Yoon, there was no clarity on what martial law would mean, would look like, or how long it would be in effect. While this was all happening, just a few minutes afterwards, Yoon's own ruling party and the opposition very swiftly come out to criticize his move. They all call for the lawmakers to convene at National Assembly for an emergency session to revoke the martial law. This is also when the public start gathering for the protest outside the National Assembly in Yeouido, and also outside the president's office in Yongsan. Very soon afterwards, the army chief is declared martial law commander, and we get a six-point mandate that bans all political activity, protests and strikes – including the doctors and the medical students strike that has been a big pain point for Yoon for many months now. Military helicopters and armed special forces also start arriving at the National Assembly. They are seen forcibly entering the compound and the main building itself. We see clashes with lawmakers, aides and staff. Some lawmakers are still stuck outside because soldiers are setting up barricades. They are seen jumping the gate so that they can get in and vote. We have seen multiple videos shared on social media that show protesters forming human ladders so that these lawmakers can jump over the wall and enter the assembly. Soon afterwards, the National Assembly speaker arrives and the plenary session begins. And at around 1 a.m., the speaker says that 190 lawmakers have voted unanimously to lift the martial law, therefore nullifying Yoon's declaration. Again, a few hours later, just before dawn, Yoon again appears on TV to say that he would withdraw the martial law in response to the vote. There was no apology or resignation.

JIMMY: Now, what's the latest? There been any new developments?

BADA: I would say that Wednesday morning seemed no different, at least on the outside. We had schools, businesses, banks, hospitals – they all opened as usual, and travel in and out of the country remain uninterrupted. But Yoon Suk-yeol's political career is in absolute shambles. Calls for Yoon's resignation, his impeachment, and his arrest are stronger than ever. This is a president who got the job after a very, very tight race in 2022. Since then, he has always been deeply unpopular. He is currently under immense pressure from his own party since losing the parliamentary elections in April, and especially over the 2025 budget, which has been in weeks of political deadlock after the opposition-controlled Parliament proposed cuts to the presidential office, his home, and also prosecutors, which also led to impeachment motions against top officials chosen by Yoon himself. Then on top of that, there's all the personal problems and scandals that he's facing, many surrounding his wife, Kim Keon-hee, who allegedly accepted a luxury Dior handbag as a bribe. She allegedly meddled in past by-election, and was also involved in stock manipulation. He was forced to publicly apologize for all of this in a national address just last month. And then on top of all of that, there was this move on Tuesday. So despite it being the middle of the night and in freezing temperatures, hundreds of people gathered outside the National Assembly and the president's office for protests. These continued well into Wednesday, and we are also seeing protest spread into other parts of the country too. Perhaps in response to such public anger, many of Yoon's own aides, including the Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun, has offered to resign, and his own ruling People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon has called for the entire cabinet to resign, as well as expelling Yoon from the party. Opposition, of course, also didn't sit idly. We have six opposition parties who have already filed a motion to impeach the president and voting is set for any time before Saturday as it must take place within 72 hours of the bill being proposed. For Yoon to be impeached, we need a two-thirds majority, and with the opposition controlling just 192 of the 300 seats in parliament, at least some of Yoon's own party lawmakers will need to vote in favor.

JIMMY: Wow. Well, it was pretty startling news. What kind of, you know, what other sort of reactions to all this have you seen?

BADA: Internationally, I would say that South Korea's allies have been rattled. The US, which has troops on South Korean soil, says it was not notified in advance of Yoon's declaration, and did say during the unfolding events that the militaries were in contact. The US defense secretary was also scheduled to meet with the Japanese and South Korean counterparts next week, but that remains unclear. Sweden also similarly canceled a scheduled summit and a visit from the prime minister. And we've also today heard that a Japanese lawmaker group that is being led by the former Premier Yoshihide Suga canceled a mid-December visit citing a tense situation.

JIMMY: Well, I hate to put you on the spot, but, you know, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next then?

BADA: I think it's quite interesting that Yoon has not yet made a public appearance since the botched martial law declaration. There are even whispers that his TV pressers were, in fact, recordings. Regardless of this, the impeachment process is very much underway. It's pretty straightforward. South Korea has impeached presidents before. They know how to do it. So Parliament must vote by Saturday to succeed. It needs a two-thirds majority of the 300 in the National Assembly. If it's approved, there is then a trial at the Constitutional Court and six of the nine court members must vote to sustain for the president to be removed. And until that happens, I can confidently say that the people will protest. South Korea is known for its peaceful protest, but they often get very, very large, and can close entire major routes in and around central Seoul. There are rarely clashes, so these shouldn't be any different. Now, if you were to ask me how likely the impeachment is, I would say that what happened on Tuesday stunned the country. People took to the streets immediately, because this was the biggest challenge to South Korea's democracy in decades. It was a massive legal overreach. It was an immense risk to South Korea's national security and to its economy, and it was a huge political miscalculation. The people, including many of the current lawmakers and those at the Constitutional Court, still remember the last martial law. They remember the repressive years that followed. They remember how hard people fought for the current stable and vibrant democracy that South Korea has. And it actually only came into play in the 1980s, so we have a very young democracy. I can tell you that Yoon Suk-yeol is not getting away with this.

JIMMY: Well, Bada, we'll pause there for today, but thank you so much for your time and for getting us up to speed. I appreciate it. And, you know, hopefully we won't go another 167 episodes before we have you back on here. But thank you very much.

BADA: Thanks again for having me. It's been a pleasure.

Ghana general election

Information compiled by Theresa Seiger

JIMMY: Millions of voters in Ghana will hit the polls this Saturday. They’ll choose a new president and parliament, all while dealing with the country’s worst economic crisis in a generation.

Under President Nana Akufo-Addo, who’s wrapping up his final term, Ghana’s been grappling with soaring inflation, high unemployment, a weak currency, and mounting debt. 

During the COVID pandemic Ghana even defaulted on most of its $30 billion external debt. 

Since then, though, the country’s turned to the International Monetary Fund for help and negotiated a 37% cut on $13 billion of its debt. 

It’s reportedly the biggest African debt restructuring ever. 

Ghana—once Africa’s fastest-growing nation—remains the world’s second-largest cocoa producer and just saw its crude oil output go up for the first time in years.

Now, the two main candidates in the presidential race are putting economic issues front and center. 

Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia, from the ruling New Patriotic Party, has committed to modernizing the economy and keeping public spending in check. 

On the other side, former President John Mahama, from the National Democratic Congress, has promised to address the country’s cost-of-living crisis and change the law to stop the government from overborrowing.

Whoever wins will also have to deal with fixing the cocoa sector after last season’s production hit its lowest point in 20 years.

Romanian presidential runoff

Information compiled by Joe Veyera

JIMMY: Romanians are heading back to the polls this Sunday to pick their next president.

It’s an election that could have widespread implications for the country's relationships with both Russia and the West.

The big surprise from the first round of voting on Nov. 24 was top finisher Calin Georgescu. 

He’s a far-right populist that that few expected to make it this far. 

Center-right reformist Elena Lasconi came in second, just barely beating out current Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu. 

Georgescu's strong performance as a "Moscow-friendly ultranationalist," has raised suspicions of foreign interference, considering his poor polling in the lead-up to election day.

Some are pointing to a sudden surge in views on his TikTok videos as key to his success. Nonetheless, the country's top court validated the results early this week following a recount.

While the ruling Social Democrats took the most votes in Sunday's parliamentary elections and a pro-Western coalition government appears likely, far-right candidates also made significant gains. 

Now, a win by Georgescu would likely mark a stark shift in foreign relations between Romania and the West.

After all, the country currently plays a key role in supporting Ukraine in its war effort.  

Netherlands to impose land border controls

Information compiled by Jeff Landset

JIMMY: Starting Monday, the Netherlands will be the latest European country to start checks at land borders in the Schengen zone.

As you may recall, in the November 2023 election, Geert Wilders’ far-right Party for Freedom came out on top, winning the most seats in the 150-member House of Representatives.

That came after campaigning on tougher immigration laws. 

It took months to put together a coalition government, but by July, they finally got it done, with former intelligence chief Dick Schoof tapped as prime minister.

And then last month, the government announced extra checks over the next six months at the German and Belgian borders to reduce “irregular migration” and human trafficking. 

They’ll also check trains and certain flights considered “higher risk.” 

It comes on the heels of Germany installing its own border checks back in September over irregular migration.

Now, these checks are part of the Party for Freedom’s promise to crack down on immigration, claiming the country is taking in too many refugees. 

Still, stats show the number of asylum seekers is actually down 5% compared to the past two years. 

Finally, despite the tough talk from the politicians, the government isn’t diverting extra resources to the police to conduct these checks. 

Several lawmakers in towns near the Netherlands’ 840 border crossings are critical of the plans, calling them impossible to implement.

France rail strikes

Information compiled by Jaime Calle Moreno

JIMMY: France’s rail transport unions are set to go on strike starting Wednesday. Strikes, with possible 24-hour renewals if changes aren’t made to the negotiations.

The unions are pushing back against the opening up of railway lines for competition both in and outside of France. 

They’re also pushing back on the proposed dissolution of the company’s freight transport. 

This breakup is in line with a negotiation with the European Commission over allegations that the freight service got illegal aid between 2005 and 2016. 

Instead of shutting it down completely, France worked out a plan to split it into two separate entities by January 1, 2025.

Now, the strike is expected to cause major disruptions, as transport strikes in France often do. 

Travel times across France are expected to increase with substantial damage financially to both the company and France.

Finally, with the holiday season coming up, there’s a chance these strikes could drag on into Christmas. If that happens, it could be a big hit to tourism.

JIMMY: One final note for you, the podcast will be taking next week off. So, our next episode will be out on Dec. 19. 

In the meantime, we are a 24-7 newsroom, so be sure to follow us on Twitter, or X as it’s called now, where we’ll still be posting breaking news.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Theresa Seiger, Joe Veyera, Jeff Landset and Jaime Calle Moreno. Our interview featured Managing Editor Bada Kim and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe