This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Jan. 9.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got Moldova’s energy crisis, Pakistan’s national airline resuming flights to Europe, parliamentary elections in Comoros, nuclear talks between Iran and three European countries and confirmation hearings in the US for Trump’s pick for Defense Secretary. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Moldova energy crisis

Information compiled by James Morgan

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll look at the energy crisis underway in Moldova. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor James Morgan.

JIMMY: Hello, James. 

JAMES: Hello, Jimmy. How are you doing? 

JIMMY: I'm well. I'm very glad you're here. I know you've been keeping a close eye on things in Moldova for us and I'm hoping you can get us up to speed. So, what's going on?

JAMES: Okay, so essentially, what happened was that on Jan. 1, 2025, last week, Ukraine halted the transit of Russian gas through its territory, and this essentially coincided with the expiration of a Gazprom gas transit deal. Gazprom is the Russian gas giant that supplies, or used to supply, quite a large portion of gas to European countries. Now, since the war in Ukraine, most European countries and the gas market in Europe as a whole has diversified away from Russian gas because of sanctions and because of the ongoing war. And Moldova, for the most part, also has reduced its dependence on Russian gas, but parts of the country – namely the breakaway region of Transnistria – still remain very dependent on Russian gas imports. And what happened on the first of January was, essentially, those gas imports stopped coming through Ukraine. And what that has done, is it has plunged the region into an energy crisis, and this has manifested itself in outages of gas. Just over 70,000 private households were lacking gas over the weekend and around 1,500 apartment buildings lost heating and have lost water as well. And in response to the energy crisis in Transnistria, the authorities in the region have implemented daily rolling blackouts, which generally are divided into two tranches of four hours a piece – in the morning and in the afternoon – and that's the method that they're choosing to mitigate the energy crisis in the breakaway region of Transnistria. They have also switched from natural gas to coal. There is a power plant in the region of Transnistria. But, in switching to their coal supply – their coal supply is finite – and they've estimated that it will last until about the middle of February, after which point they will have to find an alternate means to heat their homes and power their energy system.

JIMMY: And what's the latest? There been any new developments?

JAMES: So the new development that we saw today, actually. So, the reason that Russia's gas giant Gazprom is refusing to deliver gas to Moldova, despite the fact that they are obliged to do so under a gas deal with Moldova, is that Gazprom has accused the Moldovan government of not paying its debts, and as a result, they've refused to deliver gas to Moldova through alternate means. They could have carried on gas deliveries through the TurkStream pipeline, but they have cited Moldova not paying its debts and said that they're no longer going to deliver gas. And as a result, the Moldovan government had a meeting with the EU today to try and seek alternative means of supplying gas to Moldova, and in doing so, to the Transnistria region. So I guess that's the latest update this week. And also they have extended school holidays to January the 20th, I believe, because although they still have power to provide energy to critical infrastructure and schools, it's pretty unreliable. And we get reports every morning from various government agencies and local government in the region of Transnistria saying where they're going to implement shutdowns and where, for example, the energy grid has failed. Transport is quite regularly affected – public transport. So those would be the latest updates in what's going on. Russia, for its part, has obviously said that it will not be providing any further gas to Moldova because of this aforementioned debt problem.

JIMMY: You spoke of Russia there, but what sort of other reactions to all this have you seen?

JAMES: So the authorities in the breakaway region of Transnistria, who are very Russian sympathetic – they are in majority Russian speaking – as I said before, as well, they're a breakaway republic. Some people within the republic would like to become part of Russia. They have very much laid the blame squarely at the feet of the central government of Moldova, again, kind of echoing what Russia has said, ‘you didn't pay your debts to Gazprom and this is why they cut you off. You need to resolve this problem so that we in Transnistria can get reliable supply of gas.’ Moldova has blamed Moscow and said that this is Moscow essentially trying to stir the pot and fuel instability in Moldova with a view to encouraging or increasing malcontent among the population ahead of the parliamentary elections later this year. Now there were reports, I don't know if you remember, at the end of last year Moldova had its presidential elections, and prior to those presidential elections it was expected that Maia Sandu, the incumbent president who is pro-EU and very much anti-Russia, it was expected that she would win quite easily. But in the end, it went to a runoff with her rival, who was backed by the often-perceived pro-Russian Socialist Party in Moldova, and she won by 55% in the end, in the second round. There were huge allegations of Russian meddling in those elections and Moldova has essentially said that this is another tactic by Moscow to try and feed instability in Moldova ahead of parliamentary elections later this year. 

JIMMY: Well, you know, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for the next weeks ahead here?

JAMES: I think the main thing to watch for is a potential deal to supply cheaper gas to Moldova through Romania, its direct neighbor and member of the European Union. At present, it seems like the breakaway region of Transnistria in Moldova has enough gas supply and enough coal supply to last it until the beginning of February. I think if a deal hasn't been made by the beginning of February or by mid-February, I think that's when we start reaching a sort of danger zone scenario where they'll have real trouble providing electricity, providing power, providing heating to the breakaway region.

JIMMY: Well, James, I guess we'll pause it there for today, but thanks so much for your time and for the briefing. Always appreciate it.

JAMES: No worries at all. Thank you.

Pakistan’s national airline to resume flights to Europe

Information compiled by Hua Hsieh

JIMMY: Pakistan International Airlines will resume flying to Europe this Friday. That, after the EU lifted a four-year ban on the airline.

PIA was suspended from flying in Europe back in June 2020. That happened after a crash in Karachi killed nearly 100 people, and an investigation blamed it on human error by the pilots and air traffic control. 

Allegations then erupted that nearly a third of the airline’s pilots had invalid licenses. Those claims, however, were eventually refuted by Pakistan’s aviation authorities.

The airline has also been struggling financially for a while, and the government has been trying to privatize it. But just last November, a potential sale fell through after a potential buyer reportedly offered a fraction of the asking price.

Fast forward to last weekend: PIA announced it would restart its European operations with two weekly flights to Paris. They’re hoping to expand gradually from there. 

Now, while the airline is still banned from flying in the U.S., a spokesperson has said they’ll soon ask British aviation authorities for a green light to restart routes there too. 

They've also got some new international and domestic routes lined up to kick off later this month.

Finally, Pakistan’s Aviation Minister Khawaja Asif has expressed optimism that flights resuming to Europe will also help boost the airline’s privatization plans. 

Comoros to hold parliamentary elections

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: Voters in Comoros will go to the polls on Sunday for parliamentary elections, but there’s a twist: the opposition’s sitting this one out.

The Comoros, a small island nation in the Indian Ocean with a population of under a million, has a single-chamber legislature called the Assembly of the Union of the Comoros. 

It’s got 33 seats, 24 of which will be decided through a two-round voting system, with any runoffs happening at a later date. The other nine seats are elected by island assemblies.

Power is currently held by the ruling Convention for the Renewal of the Comoros (CRC) party, which won a majority in the 2020 parliamentary elections that also saw opposition boycotts.

Now, the country’s politics are dominated by President Azali Assoumani. He came to power following a coup back in 1999 and was re-elected last January. That win, however, came amid allegations of electoral fraud and deadly protests.

Still, with opposition parties planning to boycott the upcoming election, it’s expected that the ruling party will again be returned to power.

Nuclear talks between Iran and three European countries

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: Iran is set to hold another round of talks with France, Germany, and the UK on Monday. 

These discussions are happening just days before Donald Trump is expected to be inaugurated again—the man who ended the Iran nuclear deal back in 2018.

Now, under President Joe Biden, there were efforts to bring the U.S. back into the deal, but those ultimately failed. So, we’re left with a status quo where U.S. sanctions on Iran remain tough, while Tehran keeps ramping up its nuclear program.

Now, these European nations—longtime signatories of the nuclear deal—have been in ongoing talks with Iran, as the sides prepare to navigate what will likely be another hawkish Trump presidency. 

There’s chatter that Trump’s team, along with the Iran hawks he’s tapped for key foreign policy roles, are even considering airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

They’re looking at Iran’s expanded nuclear stockpile, a weakened regional position, and the impact of recent Israeli airstrikes, which seem to have significantly degraded Iran’s air defenses and missile production.

Finally, with the U.S. unlikely to rejoin the nuclear deal under Trump, and Iran continuing to stockpile near-weapons-grade enriched uranium, it looks like the high tensions from Trump’s first term will likely resume, with the risk of war correspondingly increasing.

Confirmation hearings begin for Trump Defense Secretary nominee

Information compiled by Joe Veyera

JIMMY: Former Fox News personality Pete Hegseth is set to appear before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday. 

Lawmakers will be grilling him as part of the vetting process for his nomination to lead the Pentagon under President-elect Trump.

Of course, Hegseth’s nomination hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing. Democrats were quick to push back. They pointed to his controversial past remarks, like opposing women in combat roles and advocating for more privatization of veteran health care. 

And that’s not all that’s challenging his nomination —there are sexual assault allegations stemming from a 2017 incident, a 2018 email from his mother that accused him of mistreating women, and reports that his drinking habits raised concerns among colleagues.

Still, Senate Majority Leader John Thune seems optimistic. He’s reportedly told Trump he believes Hegseth has enough support to get confirmed, even though some Republican lawmakers have remained noncommittal. 

Here’s the math, though: Hegseth can only afford to lose three GOP senators if he doesn’t get any Democratic votes.

Finally, Republicans are eager to wrap up these national-security-related confirmations by Inauguration Day. That, to allow for full Senate votes as soon as possible after Trump takes office.  

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Hua Hsieh, David Wyllie, Alex Moore and Joe Veyera. Our interview featured editor James Morgan and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe