This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Jan. 16, 2025

In this week’s forecast we’ve got President-elect Trump’s inauguration and plans for Day One, Russia and Iran signing a strategic pact, election campaigns in Honduras, the World Economic Forum, and the 14th anniversary of the mass protests in Egypt that toppled former President Hosni Mubarak. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Trump inauguration

Information compiled by Joe Veyera

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at Trump’s inauguration and administration. For more on that I’ve got our North America lead, Joe Veyera. 

JIMMY: Hello, Joe. 

JOE: Hey, Jimmy. How's it going? 

JIMMY: It's good. You know, normally I'd start by asking you to give us a recap, but I – honestly, I can't imagine there's anyone listening to a news podcast that doesn't know who Donald Trump is, or that he's going to be sworn in as the 47th president on Monday. So let's just dive into it. What can you tell us about Inauguration Day?

JOE: Yeah, you're right. We can kind of skip over some of the semantics here. Well, this is the first time in eight years that we've had what you would consider a traditional Inauguration Day, with 2021 being right in the middle of the pandemic. So, things really kick off on Sunday with a victory rally at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C., that'll host about 20,000 people. And then Monday is the big day. There are going to be approximately 25,000 law enforcement and military personnel deployed across the city. That includes a full activation of police, just shy of 8,000 National Guard troops, and 4,000 other officers from around the country. Now, security is so high because, of course, you had the assassination attempt against Trump over the summer. There was, more recently, the New Year's Day attack in New Orleans, the cyber truck explosion in Las Vegas. We haven't heard anything in terms of specific threats against the inauguration, but obviously tensions are high everywhere, so security is prepared for that.

JIMMY: Well, once he's finally president again, what sort of actions do you expect to see right out of the gate? 

JOE: Well, the number that's going around is as many as 100 executive orders on Day One, and immigration enforcement and border security are, quote, "likely to launch soonest," is what Republican senators were told earlier this month. Wyoming Senator John Barrasso said on CBS’s Face the Nation that quote, “there is going to be shock and awe” and a “blizzard” of executive orders on the border and the economy. So those are the main focuses, but we also expect to see rollbacks of several Biden initiatives, like the ban earlier this month on offshore oil and gas development in some coastal waters, and the government support for electric vehicles. Now, executive orders are also something we've come to expect from Donald Trump. He had 220 in his first term, and that was the most in a four-year term since the Carter administration, and we wouldn't be surprised to see him really ramp up those numbers again in his second term.

JIMMY: Well, how about turning to cabinet nominations? How are those going right now?

JOE: Maybe a little better than it seemed they would in November, when Matt Gaetz flamed out pretty spectacularly as the attorney general nominee. So, there are three cabinet picks that we would kind of consider most at risk. There's Pete Hegseth for Defense, RFK Jr., for Health and Human Services, and Tulsi Gabbard for Director of National Intelligence. Hegseth appears to be gaining support among Republicans, and it seems more likely that his nomination will go through. He got the support of Iowa Senator Joni Ernst earlier this week, and that was one that seemed on shakier ground based on his previous remarks regarding women in combat. We've also seen conservatives opposing Robert F. Kennedy Jr., over his past support for abortion access, so that one might be on a little shakier ground. And just in terms of keeping track of the numbers, if you assume no support from Senate Democrats on any of these nominations, you can only lose three Republicans.

JIMMY: Well, Joe, I always end these briefings by asking folks, you know, what should people be watching for next, and I see no reason not to do that today, despite it meaning you, basically, having to predict the future. So, you know, what should folks be keeping an eye out for?

JOE: So I'll say all this with the caveat that we simply do not know what Donald Trump is going to do when he takes office. We can only take his remarks at face value and then see how he actually decides to legislate. But in a strict, like, numbers sense, we note the Senate's 53-47 for the GOP. So there's a little wiggle room on legislation, but it's still well short of the 60 votes you need to avoid the filibuster. The House is much more closely divided currently, 219 to 215 for the Republicans, but that includes two of Trump's cabinet picks, so assuming that Elise Stefanik and Michael Waltz get confirmed, it's a two-vote margin. That's a really hard legislating majority. That said, we have seen some Democrats show more willingness to work with Trump whenever they see that there's common ground, and I think Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman's trip to Mar-a-Lago earlier this week is kind of indicative of that. And then finally, of all of the maybe 100 executive orders we see from Trump on Day One, or in the opening days of the administration, which ones withstand legal scrutiny? Obviously, we just don't know.

JIMMY: Well, Joe, then that seems like like a good place to pause for today. But you know, I'm sure we'll have you back and update us again at some point in the weeks ahead, but until then, thanks so much for keeping an eye on things for us. Appreciate it.

JOE: Someone's got to do it, Jimmy.

JIMMY: [laughs] Take care.

Russia and Iran to sign strategic pact

Information compiled by James Morgan

JIMMY: Russia and Iran are expected to sign a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement this Friday. It will take place when Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian visits Moscow.

The Russian Foreign Ministry says Pezeshkian and Vladimir Putin will discuss expanding bilateral ties in trade, investments, transportation, and humanitarian efforts. After that, they’ll hold a press conference. 

Of course, while Iran has confirmed the agreement stipulates a deepening of ties in the defense and security sector, no details have been given on the expansion of military cooperation. 

One thing’s for sure, though—Russia has become increasingly reliant on Iranian drones in the war in Ukraine. Russia’s used them to carry out crippling strikes on energy infrastructure, and Moscow plans to double-down on its drone supply. 

Putin even said last September that Russia’s army would receive 10 times more drones in 2025 and proposed the creation of a new branch of the military for unmanned systems.

Now, Russia penned a similar strategic partnership agreement with North Korea in the summer, and that led to Pyongyang sending over 10,000 troops to help out in Ukraine. 

And while Iran sending troops is unlikely, it’s still reasonable to assume Russia will be looking to consolidate already-existing military ties with Tehran and shore up its drone supply. 

The agreement is also a symbolic one. It bolsters Russia’s ties with regimes opposing western influence in a challenge to the incoming Trump administration.

Electoral campaign for Honduran elections begins

Information compiled by Jaime Calle Moreno

JIMMY: Campaign season for Honduras’ presidential elections kicks off this Saturday. And while the big vote won’t come til Nov. 30, we’ve got the primaries lined up just weeks away on March 9. 

Current President Xiomara Castro is unable to run for office again due to term limits. 

Several candidates, however, will be vying for the presidency, most notably Castro’s own left-wing Liberty and Refoundation party with current defense minister Rixi Moncada on the ballot. 

Now, this all comes after a pretty eventful chapter in Honduran politics. 

You might remember former President Juan Orlando Hernandez—he was removed from office, arrested, and sent to the U.S. on drug trafficking charges. He was convicted of those charges just last year, in June.

But that’s not the end of the drama. Castro’s party has also been mired in a drug trafficking scandal. 

A video dated 2013 surfaced showing Castro’s nephew and brother-in-law attempting to get financing from drug traffickers for her electoral campaign. 

Her approval ratings took a hit. 

Still, it’s yet to be seen how substantial the shift may be toward the opposition parties. 

Davos summit

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: The World Economic Forum is kicking off this Monday in Davos, Switzerland.

This summit has been around since 1971 and has grown into a globally-influential event. It’s where world leaders, business moguls, top media folks, and academics all gather to hash out major issues. 

This year, around 60 heads of state are expected to show up, including U.S. President-elect Trump — though he’ll join the conference virtually.

Now, as for the agenda, it’s a mix of the typical topics—climate change, economic growth, and artificial intelligence. They’ll also discuss the future of Syria, as the conference will be attended by the country’s new foreign minister. That, in the wake of the fall of the Assad regime.

And, as you’d expect, security is tight. 

Swiss authorities have already undergone extensive measures to secure the conference and up to 5,000 military personnel are being deployed, backed by fighter jets.

Of course, it wouldn’t be Davos without some demonstrations. 

Environmental activists have been protesting the summit for years, as the global elite discuss climate change at a Swiss mountain resort. 

Egypt revolution anniversary

Information compiled by Agnese Boffano

JIMMY: Next Saturday will mark 14 years since Egypt’s revolution—the one that brought down President Hosni Mubarak.

As you may recall, 2011 saw a wave of popular uprisings that swept across the Arab world. People were demanding an end to authoritarian regimes and Egypt was right in the thick of it. After weeks of protests, thousands of arrests, and hundreds of people killed, Mubarak finally stepped down on February 11.

Fast forward to last month, the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria following a surprise offensive by rebel forces has sparked particular concern for Egypt’s current President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.

Sisi’s rule has been marked with continued enforced disappearances, economic hardships, power outages, forced displacement of entire neighborhoods, and unpopular politics on the war in Gaza.

And then there’s the authoritarian leader’s frequent appearances on state TV where he insists he’s got “no blood on his hands.” They seem to reflect his fears of potential popular movements against the current regime.

As a result, analysts expect a particularly widespread deployment of security forces on the anniversary and the days leading up to it, especially in downtown Cairo.

In fact, some arrests have already taken place among pro-Syrian rebel groups and pro-Palestinian demonstrators.

One final note for you: Like many podcasts we include a transcript each episode. What you might not know, is that every transcript includes links to numerous news articles and other sources. We packed an awful lot of news into 12 minutes and want to make it as easy as possible for you to get additional information.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors James Morgan, Jaime Calle Moreno, Alex Moore and Agnese Boffano. Our interview featured editor Joe Veyera and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe