This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Jan. 30, 2025.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got fighting in DR Congo, U.S. tariffs on Mexico and Canada, airlines resuming some flights to the Middle East, elections in Delhi and naval exercises in Pakistan. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

M23 rebels attack Goma, DR Congo

Information compiled by Owen Bonertz

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the fighting underway in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Owen Bonertz.

JIMMY: Hello, Owen. 

OWEN: Hi, Jimmy, thanks for having me. A lot going on in the northeast of DR Congo the past week and ready to fill you in on it.

JIMMY: So, maybe can you start off by giving us a bit of a recap on what's been going on?

OWEN: Yeah, absolutely. So, the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel army who are active in the northeast of DR Congo, particularly the North Kivu and South Kivu provinces, have launched a major offensive since, really, the end of December, kind of culminating in them taking the city of Goma on just Monday and Tuesday of this past week. Goma is kind of the regional capital and the largest city in the east of the DR Congo. There's over a million people living in the metro area, a lot of whom are internally displaced – people who have fled M23 previously from neighboring villages or other militant conflicts in the region. And M23 stands for March 23, the date they claim a peace treaty that they reached with the central government of the Democratic Republic of Congo was violated. And that incident in 2012 kind of caused the group to emerge. And following this, they actually took control of the city of Goma for several weeks in 2012. That occupation was pretty quickly pushed out with a lot of pressure from the west and the United Nations, but M23 has stayed armed and stayed active in the region since then. From roughly 2012 to 2017, they kind of waned in influence, and by 2017 a lot of people didn't really see them as a serious threat to the territorial integrity of the DRC. But they've kind of come back in a big way, since roughly 2021. Many people would attribute that to more direct support from Rwanda, their neighbors, who – Rwanda, of course, has an ethnic Tutsi government and most of the fighting force of M23 are themselves ethnic Tutsis, so they're kind of bonded together by a shared history, shared language and shared rivalry with the ethnic Hutu populations that live in both Rwanda and the northeast DRC, who themselves have militant groups active in North and South Kivu. So this most recent offensive, as I mentioned, really ramped up in the end of December, despite a ceasefire agreement that was actually brokered by Angola and agreed upon in August. And M23, with perhaps more direct support from Rwanda than we've ever seen, very quickly took some of the towns within 100 kilometer radius of Goma, namely Masisi, Sake and Bukavu. Which of course caused a bit of panicking in Goma, as this seemed to be like the first real threat to Goma Since 2012, which of course panned out to be true. Just this week, M23 directly attacked the city on Monday and Tuesday. It was a little unclear whether they had gained full control or not, but as of recording today, on Wednesday, January 29, it appears that they do have full control, and their ambitions have now kind of shifted south into the South Kivu region, where where M23 are starting to push into territories that they've never occupied before. 

JIMMY: Well, what's the latest? There been any, you know, new developments? 

OWEN: Yeah. So in addition to M23 kind of moving down the N2 Highway towards the city of Bukavu, the news has obviously sparked a lot of reactions from the rest of the country, namely in Kinshasa, where there's been some pretty significant riots. More than seven international embassies – the United States, France, the United Nations mission, as well as some African states that people perceive to be aligned with M23, so Uganda, Rwanda and Kenya – their embassies have all had crowds kind of attempt to enter or set fires and protest outside. So that's prompted the city government of Kinshasa to ban all demonstrations in the city. But that really hasn't stopped anyone, and as of recording today, on Wednesday, there are more demonstrations in the city outside the American Embassy. So that's been another major development in the country that's actually prompted some new travel warnings against visiting the western DR Congo and Kinshasa, as well as even some flight cancelations from regional airlines to Kinshasa airport.

JIMMY: Well, what sort of reactions to the situation have you seen? You know, like, internationally, domestically?

OWEN: So I think the response to this M23 offensive has been a little more muted than it was in 2012. In 2012 the West and the United Nations and the African Union were all very quick to condemn Rwanda. There was a new sanctions regime and an arms embargo put in place against Rwanda. But since 2012, Rwanda has actually really reached out to the West in a lot of ways. And their leader, Paul Kagame, who has been in power since the 1990s, has kind of conducted a successful PR campaign, you could say, in the West for the ways in which he's been able to grow the Rwandan economy and promote levels of stability within the borders of Rwanda that are pretty rare and exceptional for that part of the world. So the business ties between Rwanda and the West are kind of as strong as they've ever been, and I think that's why we're -- have not quite seen any sort of new sanctions regime imposed on Rwanda at this point. We have seen Germany say that they will stop sending humanitarian aid to Rwanda. We've also seen Belgium summon their Rwandan ambassador to, kind of, address the situation. But in general, I think the West is is taking a wait-and-see approach to observe what exactly Rwanda's intentions are in North Kivu province, because it's at the moment, it's kind of unclear if their long term goal is to annex territory or set up a satellite regime, or if they would perhaps even be fine with some sort of third party, like the UN or the African Union, administering the region. At this point, all we really know is Rwanda is definitely after some of the mineral resources in North and South Kivu, where you do have really significant deposits of coltan and gold that the Rwandan government has been tapping every single year since roughly 2023. So that's absolutely one of the main motivators going on here, is the sort of mineral wealth lying beneath the surface in the Kivu regions.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that's going on, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next then?

OWEN: Well, as I mentioned earlier, it kind of remains to be seen what exactly Rwanda's ambitions are in the region. And now that control over Goma has been kind of solidified, I think we might see some sort of statement from Kagame or the Rwandan government that clarifies what they want to do there. In addition to that, we should also look out for them to make a push towards the city of Bukavu, that would be the second largest settlement in the African Great Lakes region in eastern DRC, and one that M 23 has never occupied before. So while they have taken Goma, they've never pushed as far south as Bukavu. And then, in addition to that, I wouldn't – definitely would not rule out new sanctions imposed on Rwanda. [U.S. Secretary of State] Marco Rubio released a statement earlier this week saying he spoke with DRC President Felix Tshisekedi on the phone. And the US has always been very consistent in condemning M23 and backing the DRC government. So, would not be surprised to see that relationship formalized. Also worth noting that M23 is one of more than a dozen militant groups active in the northeast of the country, and the sort of power vacuum that they've created by pushing out the government forces could open the door for other groups like the Islamist Allied Democratic Forces or the ethnic Hutu [Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda] FDLR or the [Cooperative for the Development of the Congo] CODECO group to make territorial advances themselves, or at least conduct raids on villages in the region, as they they have been doing for the past couple decades. And then finally, I guess I would keep an eye out for additional commitments of peacekeepers from the United Nations or the Southern African Development Community, who also have a large presence in DRC already, which are mostly troops from South Africa, amongst whom an estimated 13 have actually already died in the fighting in Goma. So they've been very involved on the front lines. And additionally, I would also just add that outbreaks of M23 violence, or M23 offensives, have often caused kind of cascading effects on members of the Tutsi community in the Northeast. There's obviously a lot of animosity against them from the other ethnic groups in the DRC because of their support of Rwanda and M23 and I would not be surprised to see targeted violence against Tutsi communities in the Northeast moving forward, unfortunately.

JIMMY: Well, Owen, we'll pause there for today, but thanks so much for getting us caught up. There's a lot going on in the world, and I'm glad this situation isn't going unnoticed. Appreciate your time 

OWEN: Absolutely.Thanks, Jimmy.

U.S. tariffs on Mexico and Canada

Information compiled by Irene Villora

JIMMY: U.S. President Donald Trump could announce tariffs on Mexican and Canadian products by Saturday. 

One week into his second term in office, Trump has threatened America's neighbors with 25 percent tariffs – part of an effort to bargain on migration and border security. 

The Trump administration hasn’t, however, disclosed the list of products that could be affected by the measure.

Meanwhile, Canadian and Mexican officials are scrambling to secure talks with U.S. government representatives and are planning possible counter-tariffs. 

Both Mexico and Canada have taken steps to reinforce border security, prevent the entry of drugs and decrease migration into the U.S. 

Still, Mexican officials have expressed frustration over the Trump administration’s refusal to sit at the negotiating table, claiming President Claudia Sheinbaum has achieved a considerable drop in migration figures while increasing anti-drug operations. 

Canada, for its part, pledged to spend $900 million on border security in December, including the acquisition of U.S.-made drones and the deployment of additional security forces to its border.

Now, it remains unclear whether the Trump administration will follow through with the threats.

Some experts believe Trump's ambitions go beyond tightening border security and could be aimed at gaining a top negotiating position ahead of the upcoming revision of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement next year. 

The imposition of the 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada would result in a hit to businesses in all three countries and a steep rise in prices for consumers.

That would put the automotive industry in a vulnerable position. 

Finally, Trump has also vowed to apply tariffs and additional levies to the European Union and China.

Airlines plan to resume some Middle East flights

Information compiled by Jeff Landset

JIMMY: Multiple airlines, including the Lufthansa group, will start to bring flights back to Israel and other parts of the Middle East on Saturday. That, as the ceasefires with Hamas and Hezbollah seem to be holding.

As you may recall, most airlines canceled their flights to and from Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport following the Hamas attack in October of 2023. 

United Airlines restarted nonstop flights last March, becoming the first U.S. carrier to do so. However, there have been multiple stops and starts since then. 

Iran’s missile attack on Israel in April halted flights, and flights were canceled once again in August during Israel’s heaviest clashes with Lebanon. 

Now, these airlines are hoping this will be the last time they need to cancel flights for several months to Israel and the Middle East. 

Still, other airlines have previously announced cancellations into March, and as the travel season creeps closer, those companies will want to see the ceasefires continue to hold before reinstarting their flights.

Delhi elections

Information compiled by Jaime Calle Moreno

JIMMY: Citizens of Delhi, India’s National Capital Territory, will head to the voting booths for legislative assembly elections on Wednesday.

Some 70 seats are up for grabs and the results of the election will be announced on Saturday.

There are two parties at the forefront – the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the national Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). 

Arving Kejriwal, the AAP’s leader and frontrunner for Delhi’s chief minister position, has won the last three elections, but resigned in September 2024 due to corruption and financial crimes over a liquor bribery case. 

Just behind, BJP will attempt to regain control of the territory for the first time in over 25 years. 

The Indian National Congress party will also attempt to take some seats.

Now, the central focus of the election campaign has been allegations of corruption from all sides, with the BJP accusing Kejriwal of voter irregularities. 

Meanwhile, the typically anti-corruption Kejriwal has accused BJP of vote-buying and using agencies like the Enforcement Directorate to target opposition leaders. 

And while Kejriwal and the AAP remain ahead in polls, it is yet to be seen if the BJP manages a significant rise, with their slogans of change from the previous legislative elections, where they won eight seats.

Pakistan hosts multinational naval exercise and dialogue

Information compiled by Matthew Hipolito

JIMMY: Pakistan will host naval exercises in the waters off Karachi starting next Friday. Ceremonies will commence at the Pakistan Navy Dockyard.

This year marks the ninth iteration of the exercises and professional conference first held in 2007. 

Previous exercises have seen the participation of multiple countries that are ostensibly rivals on the global stage, including China, the United States, and Russia in 2021, with Iran as a regular attendee as an observer. 

Bangladesh is also participating in the exercise for the first time, yet another indication of the warming relationship between Dhaka and Islamabad after the ouster of the pro-India Hasina regime.

Now, exercises and conferences like these are key forums for working cooperation between geopolitical rivals. That’s especially true this year, as this iteration of the event will see the debut of the “AMAN Dialogue.” Aman being Urdu for “peace”.

The Dialogue is being billed as a venue for leaders from various navies and coast guards to discuss salient issues of the day and could serve as a barometer for the direction of global maritime cooperation in an era of political and technological change. 

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Irene Villora, Jeff Landset, Jaime Calle Moreno and Matthew Hipolito. Our interview featured editor Owen Bonertz and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe