This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Feb. 6, 2025.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got elections in Ecuador and Kosovo, Baltic countries disconnecting from a Russian power grid, the Super Bowl and an African Union summit in Ethiopia. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Ecuador elections

Information compiled by Jeff Landset

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the elections this weekend in Ecuador. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Jeff Landset.

JIMMY: Hello, Jeff. 

JEFF: Hi, Jimmy, how are you? 

JIMMY: I'm well. I'm happy you're with us today. Looks like we've got some elections coming up in Ecuador. You know, what can you tell us about them?

JEFF: Yeah, so this is actually the second election in the last 16 months for Ecuador. The current president is a 37-year-old named Daniel Noboa. He took office, if you remember, after then-President Guillermo Lasso used a constitutional tool to dissolve the government as a way to avoid impeachment charges. So, Noboa has been in office during that time and is now looking for a full four-year term. He has been in office now, and won the election, based off of a promise to crack down on gangs and crime. The last campaign was defined by a high level of crime, and in the closing days of that campaign, one of the high profile candidates, Fernando Villavicencio, was actually assassinated. So now it is the second election in these 16 months and Noboa is looking for a full term, saying he wants to finish what he started. And it'll be a rematch, of sorts. Likely the two top candidates are going to be him, Noboa – the president, and Luisa Gonzalez, a 47-year-old woman who is the protege of the former president and socialist, who is currently living in exile in Belgium over corruption charges.

JIMMY: Wow! Well, what's the latest? There been any new developments?

JEFF: Yeah, actually, President Noboa closed the borders ahead of the election and through the election day. He said that it was to crack down on crime and there were armed gangs that were attempting to disrupt the proceedings. So, he has actually ordered that as well as the militarization of ports. This is just another flag of Noboa’s, where he is saying that he needs to crack down on crime. And this is one of those things where he says that he needs more time in office to fix the job.

JIMMY: What sort of reactions to the run up have you seen?

JEFF: Yeah, so he has done a good job of cracking down on that crime, some supporters say, but he has also gained a lot of detraction for the process in which he's done that. There have been charges of human rights violations, and there's a particularly high-profile case of four boys who went missing – four boys under the age of 16 – in Guayaquil, in December, and who were later found burned to death. Surveillance video shows that two of the boys were picked up by military members before being found dead, and there are now a handful of 16 military members behind bars. As that investigation is ongoing, there have been some allegations that the investigation is being slow-rolled and not really taken seriously. And so there are claims that Noboa is not doing as good a job as he could as president. And Luisa Gonzalez, she is running on a platform that would use AI to help police fight crimes. She's also focusing on Ecuador's energy crisis. Last year, the country went through rolling blackouts for several weeks and months. Gonzalez has said that diversification of the energy grid is needed, and she is focusing on some renewable energy such as solar energy and wind. 

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks should be on the lookout for this weekend? 

JEFF: Yeah, so polls show that it's a really close race between Gonzales and Noboa once again and it also looks like that they will have to go to a runoff, which will be scheduled for April 13. So you know, if there is any indication that there won't be a runoff, or that one of these candidates is going to win outright, that would be very surprising. We'll also see, possibly, some crime on election day that would immediately become a focus of the campaign. That may change things as we get into the votes being tabulated.

JIMMY: Well, Jeff, that seems like a good place to pause, for this week at least. I appreciate your time and filling us in. Always happy to have you here. 

JEFF: No problem. Thank you.

Baltic countries disconnect from Russia's BRELL grid

Information compiled by Awais Ahmad

JIMMY: Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania will disconnect from the Soviet-era Russian BRELL power grid on Saturday. It’s an historic shift to the European common grid.

The Baltic states signed an agreement in 2018 to connect their power grids to the European Union by 2025. 

The European Union has footed three-forths of the cost – about $1.3 billion – to prepare the region.

Now, although the shift has been over a decade in the making, the threat to the Baltic energy system has only increased since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. 

The invasion, making independence in the energy supply sector a priority for the region. 

The region is now bracing for any potential retaliation from Russia as officials prepare for any and all risk scenarios, including cyber attacks.

Kosovo elections

Information compiled by James Morgan

JIMMY: On Sunday, citizens in Kosovo will vote in the country’s ninth parliamentary election since it declared independence in 2008.

Current Prime Minister Albin Kurti and his Vetevendosje party are aiming to clinch a third term in power but face stiff opposition from the Democratic Party of Kosovo and the Democratic League of Kosovo.

A total of 27 political groupings will vie for the 120 seats up for grabs in Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian dominated parliament. 

The assembly reserves 20 seats for representatives of Kosovo’s minorities which include the Serb, Bosniak, Turkish, Roma and Gorani communities. 

Relations between the central government and the Serb-majority municipalities in northern Kosovo remain tense as the Kurti administration has continued to carry out raids to close down so-called Serb parallel institutions in the region. 

Ethnic Serbs have repeatedly protested the dismantling of these institutions, while the central Kosovo government has branded them illegal. 

The institutions are a vestige of when Kosovo was a Serbian province and their closure has drawn condemnations from the Serbian government which does not recognize Kosovo’s independence.

Now, NATO-led international peacekeepers will bolster their presence in Kosovo ahead of the election with 200 additional Italian troops.

That, as concerns remain over inter-ethnic violence and unrest. 

A victory for Kurti is likely to mean a continuation of the policy of dismantling ethnically Serb institutions. That could further fuel ethnic tensions in the northern municipalities and anger Belgrade.

Super Bowl

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: The Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs will meet in New Orleans on Sunday for Super Bowl LIX.

The game will be a rematch of Super Bowl LVII from two years ago as the Chiefs attempt to make NFL history by being the first team to win three Super Bowls in a row. 

Kendrick Lamar, who took home five Grammy awards earlier this week, will headline the halftime show. 

Per usual, there will be heightened security around New Orleans for the game, with the Secret Service also involved in planning for President Donald Trump’s attendance.

Now, casting a shadow over the New Orleans Super Bowl is last month’s ramming attack along Bourbon Street that killed 14 people. 

That incident, perpetrated by an Islamic State-inspired attacker, led to the postponement of the Sugar Bowl which was set to be played in the city the same day. 

Officials say there are no credible threats to the Super Bowl and that they have been working alongside local law enforcement to bolster security ahead of the big game.

African Union summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Information compiled by Matthew Hipolito

JIMMY: The 38th summit of the African Union will take place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, starting next Saturday. 

This year’s summit is themed on reparatory justice and racial healing.

Of course, the summit comes amid a global anti-incumbent wave. 

One that most notably saw Donald Trump retake office, something likely to bring a contraction in US foreign engagements – a vacuum that China has eagerly stepped into. 

On the continent, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have continued their inward turn by withdrawing from ECOWAS. 

There’s also the conflict underway in the DR Congo with Rwanda-backed M23 and the African Union’s mission to Somalia entering a new phase.

Now, the summit is one of the primary forums for intergovernmental action in Africa. 

The last two years have seen mini-summits on the DR Congo situation just before the meeting, and with the situation there only worsening, the Union’s Peace and Security Committee is slated to meet on the summit’s margins this year. 

Finally, the African Union has also grown in importance following the formal withdrawal of the Sahel juntas from ECOWAS. That, fracturing intergovernmental cooperation in a militancy-torn region.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Awais Ahmad, James Morgan, Alex Moore and Matthew Hipolito. Our interview featured editor Jeff Landset and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

Copyright © 2025 Factal. All rights reserved.

Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe