This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Feb. 27, 2025.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got three tropical cyclones in the South Pacific, an end to the first phase of the ceasefire in Gaza, a deadline to return gas supplies to Moldova, President Trump addressing Congress, and Japanese and British officials meeting in Tokyo.

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Three tropical cyclones in the South Pacific

Information compiled by Matthew Hipolito

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the tropical cyclones active in the South Pacific. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Matthew Hipolito. 

JIMMY: Hello, Matthew.

MATTHEW: Afternoon, Jimmy, it’s always good to hear from you.

JIMMY: You know, Matthew, it’s not that unusual for us to be talking about tropical cyclones this time of year, but it seems we’re not talking about just one this time. What can you tell us about this situation?

MATTHEW: So, first things first, right: it’s peak cyclone season in the South Pacific. And any time you’re looking at tropical cyclones, your first stop is likely going to be the WMO’s Tropical Cyclone Centers. We pay attention to all of them, and what we’ve seen this time around is that the centers out of Wellington, New Zealand; and Nadi, Fiji, are saying that for this season a little less activity is expected in areas east of Fiji and a bit more is expected in areas west of Fiji.

And wouldn’t you know it, that’s where we’re seeing a lot of this activity. Tropical Cyclone Alfred formed near the Lihou Reef which is west of Fiji. Cyclone Seru formed just between Fiji and Vanuatu. And Rae, which has since weakened, or is about to weaken into a low, formed just juuust east of Fiji.

So, in that sense, it’s not that unusual – we’re seeing increased cyclonic development in the area that we expected to have an above-average cyclone season, and so far we’re not at more storms than we were expecting to have over the course of that season. But, it is a bit unlikely that those three were all going at the same time.

JIMMY: Well what’s the latest? There been any new developments?

MATTHEW: So, as I said, Storm Rae is dissipated or is about to dissipate over open ocean just south of the Cook Islands. Seru is petering out south of Fiji, but is still bringing some heavy rains. And that leaves Alfred, which is Category 3 right now and is strengthening. While he is likely to stay well off the Queensland coast, according to current forecasts, there is a chance that he could swing towards the coast near Brisbane, so be on the lookout for weather impacts there.

JIMMY: Well, what sort of reactions to all this have you seen?

MATTHEW: We’ve got responses to reports of damage in Fiji from Rae. More than one resident has said that the storm felt stronger than the Category 2 it was; one said it felt like a Category 4. Most notably, we have some significant disruptions to water supply in the Central Division, mainly because the rains have reduced the quality of inflow water – high turbidity and such – so they had to reduce the inflow rate to maintain quality standards. A number of homes and farms were damaged in Lau in the Eastern Division, and we have some photos of corrugated metal buildings there just completely uprooted. The storm also destroyed crops there, so we’ve got some local food disruptions. And of course some trees down, and a whole host of localized flooding that is in many places now subsiding. But, on the whole of it, damage seems limited on both Fiji and Vanuatu and I haven’t seen any reported injuries or anything, which we really like to see.

Reactions are, well, standard, I guess. Like I said, these events weren’t unexpected. Cyclones happen in this region multiple times a year and we were expecting more in this area for this season so these people and governments are prepared. Dozens of water trucks have already been deployed to deal with the supply issues. Some schools are already gradually resuming. Flood waters in some areas are subsiding, though, like I said, heavy rain warnings continue. In that sense the reactions, the responses, it’s no more out of the ordinary than the cyclones themselves.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks should be watching for next?

MATTHEW: Well, if you’re on the ground in Fiji or Vanuatu, then keep watching for continued flooding as heavy rain warnings continue as Seru passes by. If you’re on the coast of Queensland, Australia, then keep monitoring the Bureau of Meteorology reports just to see if Alfred turns your way. If you’re outside of those places, though, then you can just keep an eye on the cyclone warning centers’ publications to stay on top of the forecasts. If they got this much right, I think we can trust them.

JIMMY: Let’s hope. Matthew, that seems like a good place to pause for today, but thanks so much for keeping an eye on things for us and getting us up to speed. Appreciate it.

MATTHEW: Always a pleasure, Jimmy.

End of Gaza ceasefire first phase

Information compiled by Ahmed Namatalla

JIMMY: Israel is ready to return to intensive combat in the Gaza Strip, according to Prime Minister Netanyahu. 

That could come “at any moment” after Saturday, when the first stage of the ceasefire and prisoner-exchange agreement with Hamas ends.

Mediators including the United States, Egypt and Qatar say they’re working to maintain calm.

The fighting has stopped for more than a month, despite Israeli soldiers shooting at Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and Hamas’ initial failure to deliver the body of a deceased Israeli hostage. 

Israel also hasn’t taken any steps to start talks on the second stage of the agreement, which was signed during the last days of former U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration.

That deal stipulates an end to the war, full Israeli withdrawal from the Palestinian territory and exchange of remaining prisoners. 

Hamas, whose highest-level leadership has been wiped out and military capabilities severely degraded by 15 months of Israeli attacks, says it’s ready for the second stage and even relinquishing its monopoly on power in the territory. 

Now, it’s unclear when Israel’s offensive might resume since Netanyahu is under pressure to secure the release of about 60 remaining Israelis held in the Gaza Strip, half of whom are believed to still be alive. 

Meanwhile, ministers in his right wing-dominated government continue to call for a return to bombing Palestinians and even expelling them from their land, as proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. 

Arab leaders have expressed vocal opposition to removing Gazans, offering instead to make plans to rebuild the territory without addressing the most contentious issues such as Hamas’ post-war status or Israel’s expanding occupation and military attacks in the West Bank.

Deadline to return gas supplies to Moldova from Transnistria

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: The Russia-backed breakaway region of Transnistria will have to return a volume of gas to Moldova by Saturday.

The initial arrangement was struck to provide an emergency supply of gas to Transnistria at the end of January. 

The deal came at the height of an acute energy crisis impacting the region, which was triggered by Ukraine ceasing deliveries of Russian gas to the European market. 

Transnistria, which had long relied on free Russian gas shipments, then fell into crisis with heating and hot water turned off to homes and nearly all industry shuttered.

Now, the severe impacts to Transnistrian industry have extended into Moldova. That’s because of the previous reliance on electricity produced from the country’s largest power plant in Transnistria that was subsidized by free Russian gas. 

But a series of agreements to provide Transnistria with gas have helped put off a more serious crisis, including the initial gas loan that Transnistria plans to pay back with a Russian loan as well as a new agreement with a Hungarian firm to guarantee gas supply. 

While the deals have prevented a worsening humanitarian crisis, a long-term solution remains out of reach, and that has prompted Transnistrian officials to raise utility tariffs and seek alternative energy solutions.

Trump address to Congress

Information compiled by Theresa Seiger

JIMMY: U.S. President Donald Trump is set to address a joint session of Congress on Tuesday. It will be his first such remarks since beginning his second term in office.

Presidents have addressed a joint session of Congress in the months after their inaugurations since 1981. 

The prime-time address offers a president the opportunity to highlight their legislative agenda, rally support and set the tone for their time in office. 

In Trump’s 2017 address to Congress, he broadly laid out his vision to overhaul the nation’s heath care system, secure the southern border and rewrite trade deals to the benefit of the United States. 

His stated priorities for his second term follow similar lines.

Now Trump is expected to highlight his sweeping agenda, which he has touted as putting “America first.” 

Of course, this comes as he faces political headwinds and legislative setbacks to implementing some of his plans. 

The president’s speech next week will come just days before Congress comes up against a March 14 funding deadline, giving Republicans the opportunity to push ahead with Trump’s domestic policy agenda. 

Earlier this week, Trump helped Republican House Speaker Mike Johson garner enough support to move forward with a budget resolution – one that seeks to trim the federal budget by $2 trillion while delivering $4.5 trillion in tax breaks over the next 10 years. 

Japanese and British officials meet in Tokyo

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: British and Japanese government ministers are expected to meet for high-level talks in Tokyo on Friday. 

They’re expected to discuss strengthening economic ties as the two countries pursue a new level of relations amid concerns over U.S. protectionism.

As you may recall, the United Kingdom officially left the European Union in 2020 and became responsible for its own trading relationships. 

Its first deal since leaving the bloc was in the form of an economic partnership agreement with Japan. 

Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba pledged in November last year to deepen bilateral relations in all areas in the aftermath of the U.S. election. 

Now, these talks come as countries brace for potential trade tariffs and fallout from U.S. protectionist policies imposed by President Donald Trump. 

Japan and the U.K. have also pursued closer defense ties, with military exercises taking place in January and both countries working on a new fighter jet program expected to rival the U.S. F-35.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Ahmed Namatalla, Alex Moore, Theresa Seiger and David Wyllie. Our interview featured editor Matthew Hipolito and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe