This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is March 6, 2025.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got the U.S. pausing military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, Egypt’s IMF loan, elections in Greenland, U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs and a crisis brewing in the Serbian Parliament. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

U.S. pauses military aid to Ukraine

Information compiled by Alex Moore and James Morgan

Interview featuring Alex Moore

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the situation with U.S. aid to Ukraine. For more on that I’ve got the lead for our Europe desk, Senior Editor Alex Moore. 

JIMMY: Hello, Alex, 

ALEX: Hello, Jimmy. 

JIMMY: Well, Alex, looks like there's been some big news this week regarding the war in Ukraine. Can you maybe give us a bit of a recap on what's been going on?

ALEX: Yeah, specifically, as it pertains to U.S. aid from the military sense to Ukraine. It's been a big week in that regard, and it started with last Friday's, infamous at this point I suppose, Oval Office meeting between Zelenskyy and U.S. President Trump and Vice President JD Vance, where the ostensible purpose of the meeting was to strike this – what is broadly being described as a  minerals agreement between the parties there. And instead, it sort of devolved into an accusatory shouting match, I suppose, of sorts. And in the wake of that, the U.S. has since announced a pause on military aid to Ukraine. This can be revoked at any time. The exact mechanisms for this pause to be revoked aren't entirely clear, but the White House is claiming that they want Ukraine to make concrete maneuvers toward a negotiated ceasefire settlement of sorts. I don't necessarily believe the White House cares very much what that looks like, but they'd like to see Ukraine move in that general direction. So that has resulted in a pause on all military aid to Ukraine. The Polish side has confirmed this, because most of the aid will go in through the ground on the Polish border with western Ukraine, and, yeah.

JIMMY: Well, what's the latest? There been any new developments? 

ALEX: Yeah.The latest development is that the CIA chief Ratcliffe has confirmed that intelligence sharing with Ukraine has also been paused. There was some conflicting reporting on this with Ukraine's public broadcaster reporting, citing “sources”, that real-time intelligence feeding had continued, but the CIA is claiming that, as of today, intelligence sharing has also been paused along the same lines as the military aid pause. So that would be the latest development in that regard, but both of which have sort of overlapping levels of importance. Yeah, in the near immediate-term, there won't be any massive tangible impacts to the frontline situation. I mean, in general, a lot of the U.S. aid, which again, in general, made up about 50% of the aid to Ukraine from the military standpoint. I believe now actually it's about 40% because Europe has picked up the slack, particularly on artillery shells. Which, artillery shells, is I would argue, the single most important thing Ukraine needs from an aid standpoint. A lot of the U.S. aid were sort of these panacea weapons, of sorts, you know, ATACMS, HIMARS, Strykers – things that would help Ukraine maneuver offensively, but are not completely essential to the day-to-day grind that encompasses trench warfare across a massive front line, which you can broadly characterize the conflict in Ukraine as being, albeit with FPV drones. So I say all that to say we won't see any near-term impacts. Also, mind you, that Republicans in Congress blocked U.S. aid for the better part of, I believe, eight months from the summer of 2023 onwards. So Ukraine's been through this before, and it's not like there's going to be an imminent frontline collapse. I will say, the intelligence-sharing pause – that's a big deal, both from a warfighting standpoint, with U.S. space-based assets and terrestrial assets providing Ukraine with targeting logistics for things like artillery strikes or HIMARS strikes on ammo depots or whatever it may be. But I think the most pressing near-term impact from the intelligence-sharing being paused, sort of dovetails with the pause in aid because if you look through a lot of these aid packages, a big component of them was simply stockpiles for pre-existing systems. So, additional HIMARS ammo; crucially, additional Patriot missile ammo. So Patriot makes up, kind of, the backbone of the final layered tier of Ukraine's air defense network to intercept ballistic and cruise missiles. So pausing the stockpile of Patriot missiles, that has massive near-term impact potential, especially dovetailed with the cessation of feeding Ukraine with space-based and terrestrial intelligence, which obviously would include tracking Russian projectiles. So reports indicate that Ukraine has a couple of weeks worth of Patriot stockpiles left, but we could see, if Russia were to resume very consistent massive missile and drone waves to coincide with the massive drone waves they launch every night – they've sort of cut back heavily on the amount of cruise and ballistic missiles they're firing into Ukraine – if they were to resume firing those at rates that they did during, say, the winter of 2022, Ukraine would very quickly run through their Patriot stockpiles and be left quite vulnerable to long-range strikes in central and western Ukraine. So I think that is the more immediate, pressing, near and medium term threat, whereas anybody talking about the imminent, you know, folding of a Ukrainian front, or Russia being able to make a pincer movement due to this halt of aid, that's probably overblowing it by my read.

Jimmy: What sort of – what sort of reactions to all this have you seen?

Alex: Yeah, on the European side, largely negative toward Trump and positive towards Zelenskyy. A lot of European leaders jumped to Zelenskyy's side. I think a lot of Democrats in Congress, as well, did the same, as well, as you know, some segments of the Republican apparatus. But for the most part, I think the most notable reaction was from the European side, which was, you know, largely unanimously pro-Zelenskyy, notwithstanding some of the usual suspects, be it Victor Orban in Hungary or Robert Fico in Slovakia. But yeah, for the most part, it has also sort of catalyzed further discussions, mainly in Paris and London, regarding carrying the bulk of the potential force that would embody some semblance of a Ukrainian peacekeeping unit. Those talks are obviously very preliminary. We have little to no details about what the ceasefire, or a ceasefire, that Trump is heavily pressuring Zelenskyy to work toward would even look like, but Paris and London – the UK and France – have been sort of discussing their broad willingness to supply troops to serve in some sort of peacekeeping capacity near the Ukrainian frontlines, as they currently exist, if they were to be frozen. 

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

ALEX: Yeah, I think what I discussed previously about the potential near-term and medium-term impacts to Ukraine's ability to defend its skies, I think that's the most pressing thing to watch for in the near-term. And what that would need to come with, unfortunately, are increasingly common Russian cruise and ballistic missile strikes, because Ukraine is able to successfully layer their defenses against the nightly drone waves that are growing increasingly large. I mean, they used to be a couple of dozen Shaheed drones, and now they're nightly, on a nightly basis, up into the 160s, 170s, but they're able to defend against those largely using more primitive air defense systems, while they have been able to reserve their patriot and NASAMS and IRIS-T stockpiles for the more pressing threats, which are cruise and ballistic missiles. But if Russia were to resume consistently striking central and western Ukraine with those, that would quickly deplete the stockpile of Ukraine's air defense systems, given the fact the U.S. was overseeing most of the supply of their more advanced systems. And then, of course, like I said, in conjunction with the cessation of, you know, early-warning radar assistance, which was helping Ukraine track the projectiles, that could serve as a big deal, because Ukraine did do a relatively good job, relative to historical data, of intercepting Russia's projectiles. And a lot went into that, obviously. Moreover, I think another medium-term threat to the frontline fighting that people aren't really discussing much, would be maintenance of these systems. So you can have 400 Strykers, right? But you have to maintain them. And one thing that Biden did that was a little bit sneaky later in his term was OK U.S. contractors on the ground in Ukraine partaking in the maintenance training, and doing maintenance themselves, on these systems. I haven't exactly seen it reported or stated whether that has also been paused as part of this pause on aid, but if Ukraine isn't able to get the parts to provide maintenance to existing systems in Ukraine, be it Stryker, be it HIMARS, whatever, then they're next to useless, obviously, because you have to constantly maintain military equipment. And if they don't have the parts or know how to do it, then a functioning Stryker is otherwise useless. So that would be another area that I don't see getting too much attention. That would be something to watch in the near-term. 

JIMMY: Well, Alex, we'll have to pause there for today, but thanks much for keeping an eye on things for us and getting us up to speed. I always appreciate it.

ALEX: Yeah. No worries. Thanks, Jimmy.

IMF’s Egypt loan review

Information compiled by Ahmed Namatalla

JIMMY: The International Monetary Fund is set to give Egypt another loan disbursement worth $1.2 billion on Monday. That’s when its executive board meets. 

The loan comes despite the Arab world’s most populous nation failing to meet conditions. 

According to the staff-level agreement reached in December, the lender agreed to soften its terms.

Egypt continues to struggle with high debt levels and inflation after more than a decade of unchecked military rule that consolidated control over economic activity. 

The government also went on a borrowing binge amounting to tens of billions of dollars to build mega projects with no clear return on investment.

That’s something that has drawn criticism from international think tanks and local investors alike.

Now, while IMF money is expected to provide temporary relief for the strained economy, it allows authorities to continue to avoid making structural changes such as reducing state and military ownership of businesses and allowing a flexible exchange rate. 

The country’s high debt levels are also increasingly entering the rhetoric of stakeholders in the Middle East as leverage to control its role in the Gaza war. 

Last month, the centrist former Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid suggested debt relief for Egypt if it agrees to govern the Gaza Strip for 15 years. 

Still, the United States, the IMF’s largest shareholder, hasn’t yet drawn a connection between Egypt’s debt and President Donald Trump’s suggested plan for Gaza.

He wants to send Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt and Jordan.

Greenland elections

Information compiled by Jess Fino

JIMMY: The semi-autonomous Danish territory of Greenland will hold snap elections on Tuesday. Prime Minister Múte Egede announced the move in early February, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed interest in acquiring the territory.

Greenland, of course, is a former Danish colony and has been a self-ruling island since 1979. 

It was thrust into the spotlight recently after Trump said it was an “absolute necessity” to acquire it. 

His remarks have ignited increased interest in Greenland for full independence from Denmark, with officials arguing the island’s opportunities to officially participate in negotiations would be limited “until our country achieves the status of an independent state.” 

In the meantime, the parliament passed a law banning foreign or anonymous donations amid concerns of external influence during election campaigns.

Now, due to concerns over Trump’s comments, reports say ruling party Siumut plans to invoke an article granting Greenland the right to negotiate its full independence, as well as hold a vote on independence following the general election. 

All political parties have expressed they do not want the island to become part of the United States, and recent polling suggests some 85 percent of the population also rejects the idea. 

It is yet unclear how far Trump wants to take this issue, as he previously did not rule out using military or economic power to take over the resource-rich island.

U.S. steel and aluminum import tariffs kick in

Information compiled by Theresa Seiger

JIMMY: Tariffs announced last month by U.S. President Donald Trump on imported steel and aluminum are set to go into effect on Wednesday.

During his first term in office, Trump placed a 10 percent tariff on imported aluminum and a 25 percent tariff on imported steel, citing national security concerns. 

He allowed for some countries, including Mexico and Canada, to obtain exemptions. 

The import taxes remained in effect through the Biden administration, despite a 2022 finding from the World Trade Organization that the tariffs violated global trade rules. 

Less than a month after beginning his second term, Trump signed a plan to increase tariffs on aluminum to 25 percent and to end earlier exemptions on steel imports. 

He claimed the move would strengthen domestic manufacturing and level the playing field for global trade. 

The tariffs were among several announced by Trump in his first few weeks in office.

Now, economists say that the tariffs are likely to raise inflation as American consumers are already grappling with higher prices. 

Numbers from the International Trade Association and the U.S. Geological Survey show that the U.S. imported about 26 percent of the steel it used in 2023 and, last year, 47 percent of the aluminum consumed domestically. 

Several industries that rely on those metals are expected to feel the impact of the tariffs. 

The Can Manufacturers Institute trade association warned last month that 70 percent of the tin mill steel needed to make canned goods in the U.S. now comes from foreign sources. 

The group asked Trump to exempt all tin mill steel from the tariffs in order to keep American businesses competitive. 

Meanwhile, the import duties sparked retaliation from China and Canada, which both announced counter-tariffs. 

The measures also come after Trump signed an executive order on Feb. 25 directing authorities to investigate whether new tariffs on foreign copper are necessary.

Serbian Parliament session on the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Information compiled by Jeff Landset

JIMMY: A simmering separatist conflict in the Balkans could bubble over into a full-fledged crisis next Friday. That’s when Serbia’s Parliament will begin meeting for a special session.

As you’ll recall, after the breakup of Yugoslavia in the early 1990s, war in Bosnia left 100,000 people dead and millions displaced. 

The U.S.-brokered Dayton Accords in 1995 ended the war and created two regions, the Bosniak-Croat Federation and the Serb-run Republika Srpska. 

The country now faces one of its biggest crises since then. Milorad Dodik, the president of Republika Srpska, has often called for the separation of his region, winning praise from Russia as well as the presidents of Serbia and Hungary. 

Things hit a fever pitch late last month when a court in Sarajevo convicted Dodik for his separatist actions, sentencing him to a year in prison and a 6-year ban from politics. 

He has rejected the court proceedings and the National Assembly of Republika Srpska acted fast to ban Bosnia’s central police and judicial authorities and passed a controversial Russia-style "foreign-agents" law.

Now, Dodik’s actions could spark a constitutional crisis if Republika Srpska continues to roll back institutions that both regions share in Bosnia, such as police, military, and a tax administration. 

He is unlikely to spend time behind bars but the ban on political dealings could expedite things. 

His lawyers have indicated they will appeal the conviction even though he said he wouldn’t. 

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Ahmed Namatalla, Jess Fino, Theresa Seiger and Jeff Landset. Our interview featured editor Alex Moore and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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