This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is March 13, 2025.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got fighting in Syria, a U.S. airline resuming flights to Tel Aviv, mining permits in Mali, a court hearing over the White House ban on the Associated Press and Chinese tariffs on Canada.  

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Syrian fighting

Information compiled by Agnese Boffano

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the latest on the conflict in Syria. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Agnese Boffano.

JIMMY: Hello, Agnese. 

AGNESE: Hey there, Jimmy. 

JIMMY: Well, Agnese, there's been some important developments in Syria recently. Hoping you can get us up to speed on those. Can you give us a recap? You know, what's going on?

AGNESE: Yeah, definitely. So the fighting broke out last Thursday when we had armed militants that were believed to have been supporters of the former regime of Bashar al-Assad. They ambushed Syrian security forces in Jableh and in Latakia, and they ended up killing dozens of them in these initial attacks. But then the fighting quickly spread onto the two coastal regions – so, Latakia and Tartous – and especially centered around the city I mentioned earlier, Jableh, but also Qardaha. And these are areas that, although they were taken under the control of the Syrian government forces, if you remember back in December last year when we had that HTS-led surprise offensive in Syria that led to the ousting of Assad. But this is, this is an area that is Alawite majority, which is the sect that Assad's family belong to, and it's an area that has also retained a significant loyalist presence, and especially an armed loyalist presence, right? And we saw this this past week when fighting broke out at an urban level, inside city limits, where we had entire civilian populations who just found themselves trapped at the same time as authorities introduced very strict curfews and closed all roads to these areas.

JIMMY: And what's the latest? There been any new developments? 

AGNESE: Yeah,so it seems that the fighting has largely come to a halt now. We had President Ahmed al-Sharaa issuing a statement on Monday where he announced that the military operations that they launched, initially to respond to these attacks, had come to an end in these coastal areas. And he said that the threat, as he said, from these groups aligned with the former regime, had also been eliminated. But the latest in terms of death toll is what's really worrying. We had the latest report by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which is a war monitor that covers Syria, they said that the civilian death toll from these days of fighting stands at more than 1,300 people, and that's just on top of the hundreds of apparent combatants also killed in the fighting.

JIMMY: What kind of reactions to all this have you seen? 

AGNESE: So I think this is where we come to the issue, because what we've been monitoring over the past week is what residents and NGOs are, like, talking about, which is not simply a matter of fighting between pro-Assad militants on one hand and members of the security forces on the other, but something much more worrying. So, you know, as in these types of conflicts, we usually get the usual mis- and dis-information that arises on social media where we have such instances of sectarian fighting as we've seen over the past, you know, decade and a half of civil war in Syria. But there are also, unfortunately, a lot of videos which claim to show members of the Syrian government forces conducting what appear to be, and what people are talking as being, mass executions of civilians and extrajudicial killings, looting of entire neighborhoods, looting of civilian infrastructure. And so what we have to remember here is that, you know, during the rule of Bashar al-Assad, many members of his Alawite security forces were found, and have been found, to have tortured and killed numerous people, as we know, and many of whom were Sunnis. And so what people are accusing some members of the security apparatus now is, of so-called “revenge killings”, right, is what is being talked about – what the reaction is – on either armed or unarmed members of this Alawite community, who are not all loyalists, of course, right? And this is something that al-Sharaa has acknowledged. He's acknowledged these reports. He's promised to prosecute any individuals who, you know, found to have been linked to any sort of violence of the sort against civilians. And he's also addressed the public multiple times in saying that this does not represent his government's actions, but were rather the work of individuals, as he said, right? But we'll just have to see how these investigations unfold. 

JIMMY: Well,considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next then?

AGNESE: Yeah, this is – this was definitely the first major test that al-Sharaa's government has had to face, probably since ousting Assad last year. What this past week has shown us, I think, is that – so first of all, there remains a significant loyalist presence in the country who, you know, at least appears to be willing to fight the current structure in support of the old regime. And what we have to remember as well is that, you know, after the ousting of Bashar al-Assad from Syria, the President al-Sharaa, he issued decrees dismissing many of the former members of the security forces. And, you know, some might say, and certainly the international community seems to think so, that this was a positive move towards, you know, breaking free from the past decades of Assad rule, in which you had dissidents or people with political prisoners, you know, imprisoned or worse. But at the same time, you know, critics point out that this actually created an entire community of unemployed men very much capable of using weapons and with continued access to them, which gives ways to a sort of, you know, if you wish, gun-for-hire possibility. And likewise, on the other hand, what this past week has shown us is that, in fact, the government apparatus is not as united as we would have believed it to be in the past, you know. So even though al-Sharaa himself might present himself to be a leader calling for unity and for equal representations among, you know, all sects in the future nation building of Syria. And in fact, just a few days ago, he signed a decree aimed at integrating the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces into civil and military institutions. But there remains, I think, the need for a process of full reconciliation involving all parties in order to actually successfully curb this sectarian divide. And this will just take a long time to actually be achieved. And the problem that I think we might be facing in the very near future is possibly an insurgency, which we saw a start with the, you know, alleged diversions of of some government units, and which we've seen by the significant number of people calling for another sort of response to a future Syria other than the one that is being offered right now by the al-Sharaa government.

JIMMY: Well, Agnese, we'll have to pause there for today. But as usual, thanks so much for keeping us informed, and I know we'll have you back as things unfold. I appreciate it.

AGNESE: Thanks, Jimmy.

United Airlines becomes first U.S. carrier to resume New York-Tel Aviv flights

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: United Airlines is set to resume regular daily flights from New York to Tel Aviv tomorrow.

United joined other airlines in suspending routine flights to Israel in the aftermath of the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas, resuming them for a bit when rocket attacks subsided. 

Plans to resume a regular service were then shelved, however, when the airline extended its suspension in July as tensions on Israel’s border with Lebanon flared. 

Frequent rocket attacks in the area of Ben Gurion Airport led to fears an aircraft would be hit on takeoff or approach and most airlines suspended daily service. 

With a pause in fighting holding and no new major rocket attacks, United plans to offer a daily service from Friday and will add a second daily flight from New York on March 29.

Now, many European carriers, including Lufthansa-KLM and Air France, have already resumed or announced a planned return of flights to Israel, but United will be the first U.S. carrier to resume daily operations. 

Delta is expected to resume flights to Israel from April 1 with no date set for American Airlines.

Mali partially lifts suspension on issuance of mining permits

Information compiled by Jess Fino

JIMMY: Mali’s mining ministry announced it will partially lift a suspension on mining permits on Saturday.

The military-led government suspended the allocation of mining titles in 2022 while it worked to improve the procedure. 

Since then, the gold-rich country has introduced new laws raising taxes on mining and granting the state greater stakes in mining assets.

Earlier this month, Mali stopped issuing permits for artisanal gold mining to foreign nationals after several fatal incidents in recent weeks.

Now, while applications for the renewal of search and exploitation will resume, the issuance of new mining permits remains suspended. 

Several international companies operate in Mali, including Canadian Barrick Gold and U.K.-based Allied Gold, but there have been reports of tensions between mining companies and Mali’s government, which has been demanding money and compliance with the new mining code. 

What’s more, there are still concerns that profits from unregulated mining in northern parts of the country could benefit extremists in the area.

AP-Trump administration press pool hearing

Information compiled by Jeff Landset

JIMMY: The Associated Press will be taking on the Trump administration in a federal courtroom next Thursday. That, after being banned from White House events for not using “Gulf of America” instead of “Gulf of Mexico.”

As you may recall, President Trump signed an executive order on his first day back in office that directed Denali in Alaska be renamed as Mount McKinley. He also renamed the Gulf of Mexico as the “Gulf of America.” 

Federal institutions complied with the order along with tech companies like Google and Apple. 

The AP then announced its style guide, the standard for news organizations around the world, would continue to use “Gulf of Mexico” because other countries aren't required to recognize the name change. 

The White House subsequently blocked AP reporters from the Oval Office, citing that editorial decision. 

Ten days later, the AP sued, saying White House officials violated the Constitution for singling out the AP over an editorial decision. 

A judge denied the AP’s motion for a temporary restraining order but did call the ban discriminatory and problematic. 

The White House also announced the White House Correspondents' Association, an independent group of journalists elected by peers, would no longer determine which media outlets get a spot in the press pool and instead the administration would choose.

Now, the White House maintains that letting AP reporters ask questions in the Oval Office or on Air Force One is a privilege, not a legal right. 

Meanwhile, the AP says the actions violate the freedom of the press provided by the First Amendment because their reporting is seen by millions. 

In an amicus brief, the WHCA says the White House choosing which media outlets are allowed in the pool will distort coverage of President Trump. 

If the judge sides with the Trump administration, millions of Americans’ window into the presidency could be tainted by the coverage provided by outlets that are incentivized to be friendly to the White House.

Chinese tariffs on Canada take effect

Information compiled by Hua Hsieh

JIMMY: China says levies on Canada’s agricultural and food exports will come into force next Thursday.

China’s customs authorities announced tariffs of up to 100 percent on canola, pork and other products from Canada in response to what it called "discriminatory measures” against Chinese products. 

This came after Ottawa’s move to impose 100 percent import tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and 25 percent levies on steel and aluminum products from Oct.1 last year.

According to the Canola Council of Canada, China is the second largest market for Canadian canola with exports of canola seed, oil and meal valued at $5 billion in 2023. 

China is also Canada's third-most important pork export market, taking products for which Canada does not have easy alternate markets.

Now, while some analysts say that by leaving canola seeds out of the list of products targeted and only imposing tariffs on canola oil, China might have been leaving space for negotiations. 

Others point out that Canada’s upcoming election in October may have also been part of Beijing’s calculation – that a new administration could be more amendable. 

One way or the other, tension between Beijing and Ottawa is definitely adding more uncertainty to Canada’s exports and the brewing global trade war due to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors David Wyllie, Jess Fino, Jeff Landset and Hua Hsieh. Our interview featured editor Agnese Boffano and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe