This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is May 8, 2025.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got spiraling tensions between India and Pakistan, China’s president visiting Russia, elections in the Philippines, India’s prime minister visiting Norway and a US Supreme Court hearing on birthright citizenship. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

India-Pakistan tensions

Interview featuring Halima Mansoor

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the spiraling tensions between India and Pakistan. For more on that we’ve got Factal Senior Editor Halima Mansoor.

JIMMY: Hello, Halima. 

HALIMA: Hey, Jimmy.

JIMMY: Halima, I'm glad you're here. Been looking forward to talking with you about the situation between India and Pakistan. Hoping you can get our listeners up to speed on what's been going on. So to start, can you give us a, you know, a bit of a recap on what's happened?

HALIMA: Sure. So early Wednesday, India conducted airstrikes in several cities in Pakistan and Pakistan-held Kashmir. And Pakistan, shortly after, said it downed five military aircraft during those strikes. And India says that this has all been in response to the deadly attack in Pahalgam in India-held Kashmir on April 22, which was claimed by a militant group that Delhi accuses Pakistan of supporting. As far as we know, India has not provided proof of involvement, and we do not know what evidence they have to suggest that Pakistan was supporting them. But that was the reason behind it -- that's the reason it claims it struck Pakistan early Wednesday. So far, these Indian airstrikes are, like, beyond the working norms of the two countries, because they struck cities in Punjab, Pakistan's heartland, and one of them hit a town that was less than an hour away by car from Lahore, which is a major Pakistani city. So far, the Indian attacks have killed more than 30 people in Pakistan and have injured another 50 or so in Pakistan and Pakistan-held Kashmir, and more than 12 people were killed in Indian-held Kashmir in Pakistani artillery fire. We're seeing India say that it had initiated limited strikes that were targeting facilities belonging to militant groups, groups that it has been accusing, historically, of attacking infrastructure, soldiers in India-held Kashmir, so groups like Jaish-e-Mohammad, Hizbul Mujahiddin and Lashkar-e-Taiba. But Pakistan really doesn't agree with this assessment. It says India also hit medical dispensaries, mosques – which we know are like places of worship and considered off limits in a war – and also Pakistan says these strikes were in residential areas and the Pakistani military has said that India also hit a hydropower plant, but India has not acknowledged this so far.

JIMMY: And what about the latest? [Have] there been any new developments?

HALIMA: Well, after all of this, Pakistan said it will respond at a time, place and manner of its choosing, and it has said it's going to hit only military targets in India or Indian-administered Kashmir. We don't know yet. We now know that at least one of India's strikes hit a seminary mosque compound that was linked to the Jaishe-e-Mohammad militant outfit, and the group said earlier today that several relatives of its leader died in that strike. And Indian media has been using that as proof that the Indian military only somehow surgically killed suspected militants and no civilians. But Pakistani authorities started saying this pretty much soon after the strikes, that the people who died in Pakistan or Pakistani-administered Kashmir were all civilians. We also saw today, like a new develop-- one of the later developments was that Pakistani airspace reopened. It was closed immediately after the airstrikes last night, and it was meant to remain closed through May 8, but it appears to have reopened, and all of the airports are meant to be functioning.

JIMMY: Well, this surely has the attention of just about, you know, everyone with interest in the region. What sort of reactions to all of it have you seen?

HALIMA: Well, not surprisingly, no one wants two nuclear-armed neighbors to engage in a full-on war. So the international response has been more along the lines of, “okay, now both sides have responded. Let's be done with it.” But as far as we can tell, Pakistan reportedly downing Indian aircraft is not what Islamabad considers a response to the Indian airstrikes. Also, Pakistan still considers this as an unprovoked attack by India, because it has denied all involvement in Pahalgam and says it has seen no evidence that it was, it had any involvement. So it would want to display a show of force, and it is how Pakistan is sort of reacting in the moment. It is saying that “we will respond.” If you look at how things are on ground, what are people saying? People are very tense. Every couple of hours, you see reports on social media that somebody heard an explosion somewhere in Pakistan or somewhere in India. So it's clear that people on the ground are tense, and that makes a lot of sense, considering the overnight attacks. And the military landscape in India and Pakistan has become a lot harder to parse because there's a fair amount of nationalism that is rising to the surface. And, you know, the reaction of the media has been a bit more like, you know, “yes, this is war,” and you know, “we need to fight.” So that's what we've been seeing.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

HALIMA: Well, in the immediate it's, as I said, it's been a bit more than 24 hours since the initial Indian strikes, so we are watching for either side to launch overnight air raids or escalate clashes on the border overnight – the Line of Control that separates Indian-administered Kashmir and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. And in the sort of more medium-to-long term, we're watching to see what if any Pakistani response will look like. So would it be another round of airstrikes, or will it be surgical raids in major cities? Or is it going to be combat along the Line of Control, dividing disputed Kashmir? And of course, you know, with all sorts of conflict, we are watching for disruptions to travel and transit and transportation, as airspace and airports will be impacted if things remain tense. And actually, there could be – there could be problems with maritime trade as well if you, know, there is restrictions in international waters or ports. 

JIMMY: Well, Halima, we’ll have to pause there for today, but thank you so much for getting us up to speed. Really appreciate it, and I imagine we'll have you back if need be. Thanks. 

HALIMA: Thank you for having me.

Xi in Russia for Victory Day and talks with Putin

Information compiled by Hua Hsieh

JIMMY: Chinese President Xi Jinping is in Russia today as part of a four-day state. He’s expected to meet with President Vladimir Putin for Victory Day celebrations.

Xi will be attending celebrations for the 80th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany. It’s his third visit to Russia since the start of the Russian invasion into Ukraine. 

The Kremlin said the two leaders will discuss further advancement of bilateral relations and cooperation as well as signing a number of documents. 

The spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry said the two countries will strengthen close coordination in international bodies such as the UN and BRICS.

Now, the visit comes amid continued tension between Russia and Ukraine. 

And while China claims to take a neutral position on the war, it has backed the Kremlin's stance that its action was provoked by the West. 

China also continues to supply Russia with key equipment for weapon production and its trade with Russia plays an increasingly important role in sustaining Moscow’s war efforts amid Western sanctions. 

Putin proposed a three-day ceasefire with Ukraine around the May 9 celebration. 

Still, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he could not guarantee the safety of any foreign dignitaries in Moscow given the ongoing war with Russia.

Philippine elections

Information compiled by Matthew Hipolito

JIMMY: Filipinos will go to the polls on Monday.

It’s an election that will likely see President Bongbong Marcos gain influence in a political landscape where bandwagoning to the ruling party is common. 

Still, it will also serve as a key indicator for the level of support for his running-mate-turned-nemesis, Vice President Sara Duterte.

Analysts long believed the pairing of Marcos and Duterte could not withstand the political jockeying between the two, both the scions of immensely popular political clans in the country. 

Duterte is among the frontrunners to be Marcos’ successor in 2028. 

She resigned the cabinet in 2024 over policy differences, and then this year, publicly threatened to assassinate the president, his wife, and the speaker of the House if she was killed. 

She later alleged a conspiracy to prevent her from running in 2028. 

Of course, aside from the federal races, lower-level Philippine elections are rife with violence.

Hundreds of candidates at the municipal and council levels have been killed or survived assasination attempts over the past decades. 

Now, popular support for the Duterte-backed candidates relative to Marcos’ slate could indicate her political fortunes in 2028. Or, it could signal that a successor likely anointed by Marcos might take the presidency in that election. 

Finally, at the local level, violence has forced the Commission on Elections to take complete control of multiple municipalities, but killings of local politicians at the hands of their rivals may likely continue.

Indian PM Modi to visit Oslo

Information compiled by Irene Villora

JIMMY: The third India-Nordic summit will take place starting next Thursday. The meetings are set to take place in the Norwegian capital of Oslo.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his counterparts from Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Iceland will hold discussions. 

Topics are expected to include trade, geopolitics, sustainability and cooperation issues. 

The war in Ukraine is also expected to become one of the main topics of conversation. 

Prior to the political summit, an India-Nordic Business Week features panels and sessions focused on the leadership, sustainability, innovation and collaboration opportunities between the six countries.

Now, the summit comes after this year’s ratification of the European Free Trade Association's India Free Trade Agreement. 

That’s an agreement that came after years of efforts to boost political and economic relations between the parties. 

The event will also take place in the middle of a greater European tour by the Indian prime minister. 

He seeks to establish new ties with countries like Croatia after the announcement of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor in 2023. 

All of this, of course, is closely related with a new phase in geopolitical and economic relations between India and European nations. 

A new phase that comes amid uncertainty in transatlantic relations and with India positioned as a powerful player thanks to its global trade volume and its strong relationship with Russia.

US Supreme Court to hear oral arguments on birthright citizenship

Information compiled by Jeff Landset

JIMMY: U.S. Supreme Court justices will hear arguments next Thursday over President Trump’s executive order to stop giving American citizenship to some people born in the United States.

As you may recall, on his first day in office, Trump issued an executive order that told government agencies not to issue documents recognizing citizenship to babies whose parents aren’t U.S. citizens. 

It stands in contrast with the 14th Amendment, which automatically makes anyone born in the U.S. an American citizen. 

Several states and immigration groups quickly challenged Trump’s order in court. 

So far, judges have routinely ruled against the administration in this case and others, putting a pause on Trump’s plans across the country.

Now, the Justice Department has asked the Supreme Court to rule that individual judges don’t have the power to issue an order that has nationwide effect. 

Instead, Trump’s lawyers are asking the Court to let things proceed for the people who aren’t party to any of the current lawsuits. 

If the Court agrees with Trump, the states that didn’t sue would be allowed to refuse to give citizenship to children of non-U.S. citizens while the constitutionality of the order plays out in court. 

If that happens, the result would be a chaotic patchwork of citizenship laws across the country.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Hua Hsieh, Matthew Hipolito, Irene Villora and Jeff Landset. Our interview featured editor Halima Mansoor and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe