This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is May 29, 2025.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got the start of the Atlantic hurricane season, elections in Mexico, Poland and South Korea, and the anniversary of China’s Tiananmen Square massacre. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Atlantic hurricane season begins

Interview featuring Joe Veyera 

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at this year’s hurricane season. For more on that I’ve got the lead for our North America coverage, Joe Veyera. 

JIMMY: Hello, Joe.

JOE: Hey, Jimmy. How's it going?

JIMMY: It goes well, and I'm glad you're here. Hurricane season is swiftly approaching and I always look forward to having you on to tell us what to look for. But first, before we get into this year, can you maybe tell us, you know, what did last year's hurricane season look like?

JOE: Yes. So last year, we had 18 named storms, and it was the third costliest hurricane season on record, with an estimated $133 billion in damage. Hurricane Helene was responsible for more than 250 deaths, including more than 100 that was caused by historic flooding in western North Carolina. And that was followed within a couple of weeks by Hurricane Milton, which caused more than 40 fatalities after it made landfall on the west coast of Florida.

JIMMY: And what's the latest?

JOE: So, NOAA is predicting an above-average hurricane season in the Atlantic for 2025, with anywhere between 13 and 19 named storms and six to 10 hurricanes. They say there's a 60% chance of it being an above-average season and a 30% chance of a near-normal season. So the models they have are indicating, at a minimum, an average season or more. Mexico's meteorological agency is also calling for between 13 and 17 storms, including six to eight hurricanes, and anywhere from three to four that are category three or stronger.

JIMMY: Well, you know, what can we expect in terms of disaster relief when the next big storm hits?

JOE: This is where things get complicated compared to what we've seen in the past. First off, a recent report, citing an internal FEMA memo, said that that agency was “not ready” for hurricane season – which is the last thing you want to hear if you live anywhere that's going to be impacted by a hurricane in the coming months. One of the first things we saw from President Trump when he took office in January, was visit North Carolina to review the recovery from the historic flooding from Helene, and he immediately talked about “overhauling FEMA or maybe getting rid of FEMA” altogether, describing it as a disaster and a disappointment. We've seen the Trump administration deny requests for disaster declarations in recent months, including for Washington State's bomb cyclone last November and March tornadoes in Arkansas. And speaking of tornadoes, following a stretch of deadly tornadoes earlier this month, we saw St Louis Mayor Cara Spencer say that in the immediate days after “FEMA has not been on the ground” despite a strong local response. So we're watching closely to see what the immediate aftermath of disaster relief might look like, but also the funding of more long term recovery efforts. All of it's kind of an open question right now.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think people should be watching for next?

JOE: Well, in the very near-term, it doesn't appear that there are any low-pressure systems within the next seven days or so that are at risk of storm formation in the Atlantic. Conditions are potentially more favorable once we get more towards the middle of June – we could see our first name storm. And, you know – season starts June 1 – every day matters. If you even go three to four weeks into hurricane season without any named or significant storms, that's a notable portion of the season that's just over and completely changes how much we might expect from the rest of the season. But then, longer-term are the federal budget cuts we're seeing and kind of this targeting of FEMA and disaster relief. Are we going to see impacts to the forecast we see for the storms and the speed at which warnings are issued to the people that are in the paths of those systems? And then after the storms hit, how long is it going to take for disaster relief to actually arrive? The overhaul of the federal apparatus for disaster relief is something that's going to take several years, at a minimum. So what does this, kind of, meantime look like, of this year, where the federal government is maybe not as responsive and not as quick for these storms, but states haven't gotten the funding or the ability to build up their own responses to tackle these as they come in.

JIMMY: Well, that's a good question and some good points there, but unfortunately, we'll have to hit pause there for today. But I remain grateful, as I know you'll be keeping a close eye on all the weather for us in the weeks and months ahead. Thanks so much for your time. 

JOE: Always happy to bring the good news, Jimmy.

JIMMY: Always. Take care.

Mexican federal judicial elections

Information compiled by Owen Bonertz

JIMMY: For the first time, Mexican voters are heading to the polls this Sunday to elect 881 federal judges. That’s a sweeping democratic reform and a victory for the ruling Morena party.

The push for elected judges started back in February of last year, when then-President Andrés Manuel López Obrador — or AMLO — introduced a constitutional amendment to make more than 1,600 federal judicial positions subject to public vote. 

And while it didn’t pass right away, after his successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, won the presidency in a landslide and Morena secured full control of Congress, the amendment finally got through during AMLO’s lame-duck period. 

The Morena reforms were met with significant backlash, however, including a dramatic protest in September when demonstrators stormed the Senate in Mexico City. 

AMLO and Sheinbaum say the reform will help voters remove corrupt judges and defeat drug cartels. 

Their opponents, however, argue it’s a Morena powergrab to gain control of a more conservative judicial branch that frequently blocks their reforms.

Now, once the vote happens, Mexico will become just the second country in the world to elect its entire federal judiciary. 

It’ll join Bolivia – a country whose history of open and fair elections is rocky. 

This first round will fill all nine seats on the Supreme Court, while over 800 other positions are set to be decided in 2027. 

Of course, of the 11 justices who previously served on the court, only three are running — and all three are prior Morena-aligned officials. 

Finally, considering Sheinbaum boasted an 80 percent approval rating in February, and voters are expected to choose justices sympathetic to her left-wing reforms, the election will likely further cement Morena’s hold on power.

Poland election runoff

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: The second and final round of Poland’s presidential election is set for Sunday.

In the first round, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski edged out a narrow lead with just over 31 percent of the vote. 

Historian Karol Nawrocki finished a close second with nearly 30 percent. And while Trzaskowski came out on top, he performed much worse than pre-election polls indicated. 

The success of the far-right in the first round also marks an ominous sign, with the third and fourth place finishers securing a combined 21 percent.

Now, the race marks a major moment for Poland and the European Union. 

The Polish presidency has been in the hands of Andrzej Duda and the euroskeptic PiS party since 2015. 

That, despite a parliamentary defeat to Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist coalition in a momentous 2023 vote. 

Despite the efforts of Tusk’s coalition, Duda has acted as a bulwark against significant changes such as addressing judicial independence, reproductive health access and the impartiality of public broadcasting. 

A victory for Trzaskowski would prove significant for Poland’s efforts to undo the democratic backsliding that occurred during the late-2010s when the PiS dominated the political system, which triggered now-lifted EU sanctions.

South Korea presidential election

Information compiled by David Wyllie 

JIMMY: South Koreans will vote Tuesday in the country’s ninth presidential election since democratization. Of course, it comes in the aftermath of a coup attempt.

The election, originally scheduled for 2027, is being held more than two years early following the impeachment of conservative former President Yoon Suk Yeol in the wake of his failed late night attempt to seize power last year. 

And though there’s a field of candidates, it’s really a contest between two parties. 

Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung is the clear front-runner, having been comfortably ahead in opinion polls throughout the campaign. 

Former Labor Minister Kim Moon Soo will represent the People Power Party, whose standing was dented by the failed coup. 

He has regained ground in recent days ahead of a cutoff of opinion polling before the vote. 

Whoever wins the most votes in Tuesday’s poll becomes president and assumes office immediately after certification.

Now, South Korea’s new president will serve a five-year term and cannot run for reelection due to constitutional term limits. 

Following the dramatic December coup attempt, drawn-out aftermath and bruising impeachment saga, there is a low bar for any leader to simply serve out the full length of their term without ending up kicked from office. 

A win by Kim Moon Soo would be a stunning comeback for his party and could usher in another spell of divided politics. 

A victory by front-runner Lee Jae-myung would consolidate the Democratic Party’s grip on power, giving it a free hand until legislative elections in 2028.

Anniversary of China's Tiananmen Square massacre

Information compiled by Theresa Seiger

JIMMY: Wednesday marks the 36th anniversary of the deadly 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown in Beijing.

In 1989, Chinese students gathered in Tiananmen Square to mark the death of pro-reform politician Hu Yaobang in a demonstration that grew into a massive protest against corruption and inflation and a call for broader reforms. 

In May 1989, martial law was declared in Beijing. Weeks later, from June 3-4, tens of thousands of troops and police officers ended the protest in Tiananmen Square by force. 

The death toll from the crackdown remains unknown, with estimates varying from hundreds to thousands.

Now, the Tiananmen Square massacre remains a taboo subject in mainland China, where pro-democracy activists still face persecution in the country. 

Until 2020, Hong Kong was the only territory in China where people were allowed to gather to remember and mourn those killed in the Tiananmen Square massacre. 

This year, Hong Kong’s Victoria Park – the traditional site where people gathered to remember the crackdown – will hold a food carnival for the third consecutive year. 

In the absence of commemorations in China, vigils have been organized in several other countries.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Owen Bonertz, Alex Moore, David Wyllie, and Theresa Seiger. Our interview featured editor Joe Veryera and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe