This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is June 12, 2025.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got the protests that have erupted in Los Angeles and across the United States, a court hearing for a former prime minister of Thailand, a military parade in Washington, D.C., France’s Macron visiting Greenland and the G7 summit in Canada. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Anti-ICE protests following Los Angeles raids

Interview featuring Joe Veryera

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the protests that have erupted in the US, particularly in Los Angeles. For more on that I’ve got the lead for our North America coverage, Joe Veyera.

JIMMY: Hello, Joe 

JOE: Jimmy, for the third straight week, it is a pleasure to be here.

JIMMY: Yes, three weeks in a row has got to be a record for us, I'm sure. But you know, on a serious note, we've got a lot to cover this week, so I guess let's just jump right into it. Of course, I doubt any of our listeners are unaware there are protests going, but maybe we can start with what actually triggered the unrest. That seems like a good spot. What sparked these protests?

JOE: Yeah, so this all began on Friday with immigration enforcement operations in several locations across Los Angeles, and these led to 44 arrests. There was a small-group protest outside the federal detention center that evening. Authorities did deploy tear gas and police issued a city wide tactical alert, but in all that was relatively tame compared to the weekend. So we get to Saturday morning, and there are rumors circulating about an imminent raid in nearby Paramount, Calif., and protesters gathered outside a Home Depot that afternoon. An unlawful assembly was declared there, and then we saw the announcement from President Trump of the deployment of 2,000 National Guard troops that evening. Those troops began to arrive on Sunday, and while the demonstrations that day were peaceful into the early afternoon, that's when things really began to escalate, with protesters blocking the 101 freeway. You may have seen images online of Waymo vehicles that were set on fire. There was also at least one police cruiser that was lit up. And that night, we saw some reports of looting as well. Monday was a little bit quieter, but again, some looting reports later in the day. We had the deployment of an additional 2,000 National Guard troops and the activation of about 700 active duty Marines. So that's where we stand now with the deployments: about 4,000 soldiers, 700 Marines. Tuesday brought the announcement of a curfew for parts of downtown by Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass. And in all, the Los Angeles Police Department says they've made nearly 400 arrests since Saturday, the vast majority of those were for failing to leave the area after a declaration of unlawful assembly or violation of curfew. And nine officers have been hurt, mostly with minor injuries. So that's where we're at now.

JIMMY: Well what's the latest? There been anything new? Any new developments?

JOE: So, a couple of things. The White House confirmed on Wednesday that 330 immigrants had been detained by agents since Friday. And this has been very Los Angeles forward to this point, but we've seen protests spread to other cities. There were approximately 60 people arrested Sunday in San Francisco's financial district; tear gas and pepper spray were deployed by police near the Texas State Capitol in Austin on Monday. And Tuesday, saw more protests and arrests in both Denver and Atlanta. So these anti-immigration-enforcement demonstrations are going nationwide.

JIMMY: What kind of reactions to the protests have you seen? I guess, not only to the protests, but to the government's response?

JOE: I think the main question, and the one California is going to court over, is, is this an instance of government overreach? So we go back to the George Floyd protest in the summer of 2020 and the president had reportedly looked into deploying the National Guard and was prepared to invoke the Insurrection Act at that time, but he didn't do so. Of course, now there are different voices in the White House, and perhaps ones that are more in line with his way of thinking, so we may see him go with his instincts more often without the pushback we saw in the first term in the Oval Office.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

JOE: How long is this podcast, Jimmy? So first off, a hearing is scheduled for Thursday on California's request for an emergency ruling on the president's National Guard deployment. So we'll both see how a judge rules on that, and then, depending on that, how either side responds to it. Kind of on that note, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth told a House subcommittee earlier this week that he expected the deployment to last at least 60 days and at a cost of approximately $130 million, give or take. Meanwhile, Wednesday was the second night of the curfew in parts of downtown LA. How much longer do officials believe that will need to remain in effect? And then, looking on a broader scale nationwide, the “No Kings” protests are scheduled for Saturday. More than 1,800 locations are registered across the US, in contrast to the military parade in Washington, D.C. And of note, there is not going to be a “No Kings” protest in Washington, D.C., proper, because of that. And kind of going hand in hand with “No kings,” ICE will reportedly deploy Special ResponseTeams to five areas. Those are New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Seattle and Northern Virginia. So finally, without getting too deep into speculation, let's say protests escalate in one of these locations on Saturday. What's the federal response? The administration has shown us that they won't hesitate to activate the National Guard if they feel it's necessary to maintain order, and let's say they do so in one of these places. What's the local response to that? That's another thing we're just going to have to wait and see on.

JIMMY: Well, Joe, we'll need to pause there for today, as the protests are quite literally still taking place, and I know you'll need to get back to following the developments, but thank you so much for your time and for keeping us up to speed. Appreciate it.

JOE : Of course! A busy weekend ahead, and with any luck, you won't have to have me back next week. 

JIMMY: We hope! Have a good one.

Court hearing on former Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra’s prison term

Information compiled by Vivian Wang

JIMMY: Thailand’s Supreme Court is scheduled to open an inquiry on Friday.

It’s over concerns that a prison sentence for former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra was not adequately enforced.

Thaksin served as Thailand’s prime minister from 2001 to 2006, when he was deposed in a military coup.

He’d been living in self-imposed exile before returning in 2023. 

Upon his arrival, the Supreme Court handed Thaksin an eight-year prison sentence over three corruption convictions, which the Thai king commuted to one year. 

Complaints then arose over Thaksin’s quick transfer from prison to a police hospital, where he spent six months before being released on parole last year; he did not spend a night in jail due to reported health problems. 

Now, if the Supreme Court finds that his claimed health issues did not warrant a six-month hospital stay, they’ll likely order that he return to prison to serve a full year.

And according to Thai legal scholars, there are also possible punishments for authorities responsible for implementing the sentence. 

What’s more, the hearing comes amid two other political flashpoints this week starring Thaksin, including a meeting between Thailand and Cambodia over border tension. 

Those tensions have been fueled by controversy over close ties between Thaksin and former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen.

Military parade in Washington, D.C.

Information compiled by Jeff Landset

JIMMY: On Saturday, President Donald Trump will oversee a military parade celebrating the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States Army.

This, despite concerns of costs, politicization and safety.

Trump has yearned for a military parade for years, dating back to when he was in Paris on Bastille Day in 2017. 

He called it “one of the greatest parades” he had ever seen and told French President Emmanuel Macron he wanted to "try to top it." 

Plans for a parade during his first term were shelved after the Pentagon called it too political. 

Trump said the cancellation was due to the $92 million price tag. 

This term, however, he’ll get his wish with thousands of troops and more than a hundred vehicles, including tanks, parading through the streets of Washington, D.C. 

The Army has estimated this iteration, which comes on Trump’s 79th birthday, will cost between $25 million and $45 million.

Now, the parade comes as protests over Trump’s immigration policies spread across the country. 

Trump, however, has warned that any protesters at the parade will be met with "very heavy force.” 

To prepare, the city is installing 18 miles of fencing and shutting down an extensive number of roads. 

Officials say they’re tracking “about nine First Amendment activity demonstrations” but have no significant concerns. 

Finally, air traffic will be halted at Reagan National Airport for several hours, as well. 

France's Macron to visit Greenland

Information compiled by Jess Fino

JIMMY: French President Emmanuel Macron will travel to Greenland on Sunday.

It’s a trip aimed at showing support to the Danish territory following continuous threats by U.S. President Donald Trump.

Since Trump came into power, he’s expressed a desire to annex the semi-autonomous territory, including by force if needed. 

Several European countries and the European Commission have come out in defense of Greenland, with French foreign minister Jean-Noël Barrot saying at the time the EU would not tolerate U.S. military intervention.

Now, after the controversial visit of U.S. Vice-President JD Vance and recent visit by Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, Macron’s trip is being seen as a counter to Trump’s threats.

The French presidency says it hopes it will contribute to fostering "European sovereignty.” 

During the visit, where he will meet both Frederiksen and Greenland’s Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen, the leaders will discuss security in the North Atlantic and the Arctic, climate change and energy transition. 

Frederiksen has called his visit “yet another concrete testament to European unity.”

G7 summit in Alberta

Information compiled by Jess Fino

JIMMY: Also on Sunday, Canada will host the annual G7 summit.

World leaders from the US, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the UK will meet in Kananaskis, Alberta.

Canadian officials have said the meeting will aim at reaching “agreements and co-ordinated action” on peace and security, digital transition and future partnerships. 

Rising tensions with Russia and China are also expected to be addressed. 

In a surprise move, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced this week he had invited Indian counterpart Narendra Modi to the summit, just months after Canadian police accused the Indian government of acts of murder, extortion and coercion.

Now, European leaders will use this meeting to try to put pressure on Russia by lowering the G7 ceiling price for Russian oil. 

Meanwhile, security has been tightened in Calgary, where most delegates will arrive. 

Three designated protest zones have been set up, as activists are expected to gather in the city. 

Still, while organizers said they will avoid provoking police, they have shown concerns about police violence.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Vivian Wang, Jeff Landset, and Jess Fino. Our interview featured editor Joe Veyera and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe