This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is June 19, 2025.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got soaring border tensions between Thailand and Cambodia, elections in Tokyo, India reopening its airspace to Pakistani aircraft, U.S. regulators meeting about that Boeing 737 MAX door incident and New York City’s primary elections.

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Thailand-Cambodia tensions

Interview featuring Vivian Wang

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the escalating border tensions between Thailand and Cambodia. For more on that I've got fellow Factal editor Vivian Wang.

JIMMY: Hello, Vivian.

VIVIAN: Hi, Jimmy.

JIMMY: Vivian, I’m glad you’re here. There’s been a ton of major news across the world in recent weeks and these tensions in southeast Asia may have gone unnoticed to some folks and I’m hoping you can get us up to speed. So, what’s going on with [the] Thailand and Cambodia situation? 

VIVIAN: So, last month, on May 28, a brief clash broke out between Thai and Cambodian forces in a very remote, disputed area sometimes called the “Emerald Triangle” where the borders of Thailand, Cambodia and Laos meet. Both sides blamed each other for opening fire first, so I don’t know how much clarity we’re going to get there, but one Cambodian soldier was killed. Since then, Thailand and Cambodia have been busy rattling sabers at each other, and exchanging tit for tat policies - so, Thailand’s introduced some restricted hours at land border crossings with Cambodia, and Cambodia’s banned the import of Thai produce, and also Thai movies and TV shows. And for context, this whole dispute stems over disagreements on boundaries that were drawn in the early 1900s. It’s flared up a couple times, which I think the most relevant example is from 2008 to 2011, when Thailand and Cambodia actually fought over a disputed Buddhist temple.

JIMMY: And what about the latest? There been any new developments?

VIVIAN: So I want to preface this by saying that the situation is developing pretty quickly and things might happen in between recording this and when the podcast comes out – but as of Wednesday, the political situation in Thailand has gotten a little precarious, and understanding this requires a bit of context. So, speaking very generally, Thailand and Cambodia have pretty intertwined histories and cultures, but they do have a nationalistic streak when it comes to one another. Despite that, the current leadership of both countries do share close ties. So, in Cambodia, former Prime Minister Hun Sen is still very influential as the senate president, especially given that his son is the current prime minister. And Hun Sen has a close relationship with Thailand’s former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, whose daughter Paetongtarn is now the current prime minister. So now we’re in this situation where, apparently, the governments in Cambodia and Thailand are personally rather friendly, but are also under pressure from domestic nationalist sentiment in their respective countries to save face and show some backbone. And now the most recent development is a call got leaked between Cambodia’s Hun Sen and the current Thai prime minister, confirmed as authentic by both parties. So, she calls him uncle, says she’s under domestic pressure, and that Hun Sen shouldn’t listen to a Thai military general at the border. She said she’s being misinterpreted, but I think the damage has been done here - it’s going to fuel the fire for nationalists, probably on both sides but definitely on the Thai side, who’s sure to criticize this kind of relationship between the leadership, and it’s going to give even more weight to speculation that there’s a divide between the Thai government and the military on how to approach the border crisis.

JIMMY: Well, what sort of reactions have you seen to all this?

VIVIAN: It’s an interesting time for this to happen because, like you said, there’s so much going on in the rest of the world that I’m not sure this is getting as much international attention as it could be, but it is definitely a huge situation in Thailand and Cambodia, so. Domestically in Thailand, the second-largest party in the ruling coalition said they’re withdrawing over that phone call leak, leaving Paetongtarn’s government with a much slimmer majority in the legislature. And then in Cambodia, they’ve officially gotten the UN’s International Court of Justice involved, which they’ve done in the past with that disputed Buddhist temple, among other things. So, the ICJ has typically ruled in Cambodia’s favor, so Thailand’s not happy about this going international - they wanted to resolve this bilaterally.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next then in the weeks ahead?

VIVIAN: So, actually quite a few things to watch out for here: the border situation will obviously remain rather tense, and it’ll be worth looking out for any further changes in border operations on either side as the dispute continues – it’s not looking like it’ll resolve anytime soon. The higher tensions might increase the risk of smaller scale clashes, but I think it’s rather unlikely we’ll see outright military conflict. Cambodia, though, has accused Thailand of flying drones, digging trenches and deploying more  troops near the border, which Bangkok has denied. On the political side, Thailand is going to be the thing to watch - because Thailand has a pretty recent history of military coups. They happened in 2006 and in 2014, and both of them involved Shinawatras - Thaksin in the former and his younger sister Yingluck in the latter. And now with Thaksin’s daughter in power – another Shinawatra and apparently in disagreement with the Thai military – I think everyone involved would deny this if they were just questioned directly, but I think there are a lot of reasonable questions to be asked about whether a coup is possible. And then with all of this nationalism going on, I think we should be on the lookout for demonstrations, rallies, and protests in both Cambodia and Thailand.

JIMMY: Well, Vivian, that seems like a good place to pause for today then, but thanks so much for keeping us informed. Always appreciate it. 

VIVIAN: Thanks as always for having me on Jimmy.

Tokyo metropolitan assembly election

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: Voters across Tokyo will elect representatives to the capital’s regional parliament on Sunday.

Campaigning kicked off on June 13 for an election which will see 127 members elected across 42 districts. 

Some 295 candidates are running for office and winners will be selected using the single non-transferable vote system. 

The last election, held in 2021 during the coronavirus pandemic, saw the Liberal Democratic Party win the most seats, with regional party Tomin First no Kai just narrowly behind.

Now, populist Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike, elected to a third four-year term last year, is seeking to expand her Tomin First no Kai party’s powers by winning the most seats. 

That party is looking to overtake the Liberal Democratic Party which has been bruised by a financial scandal. 

This vote is a key test of her support, but also a possible signal of how Japanese citizens feel ahead of the upper house elections set for July 20th.

India’s airspace restrictions on Pakistani aircraft due to be lifted

Information compiled by Awais Ahmad

JIMMY: India is expected to lift its airspace restrictions on Pakistani aircraft on Monday. It’s the first time since cross-border airstrikes were exchanged following a deadly militant attack in India-administered Jammu and Kashmir.

The airspace closure was initially set to end in May but was extended by both countries amid diplomatic tensions. 

Since April, flights operated by either nation have been banned from transiting through the other’s airspace. 

The restrictions were one of several retaliatory measures taken after the Pahalgam attack, which India blamed Pakistan for being involved in.

Now, the airspace ban has carried a significant financial burden. 

If the closure were to remain in place, Air India estimated losses of up to $600 million over a 12-month period due to longer flight paths and increased fuel costs. 

Monday’s reopening could ease those economic pressures – and may also signal a tentative step toward easing broader tensions. 

Still, key flashpoints remain unresolved, including the ongoing suspension of the water-distribution treaty between India and Pakistan.

U.S. regulators hold meeting on Boeing 737 MAX door incident

Information compiled by Joe Veyera

JIMMY: The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board will hold a public board meeting on Tuesday. 

Investigators are working toward determining the probable cause of a door plug blowout on an Alaska Airlines flight last January. 

As you may recall, that’s when an access door flew off a plane shortly after takeoff from Oregon’s Portland International Airport.

In the months after the incident, Boeing developed a new safety and quality plan that included random quality audits at factories, while then-FAA Administrator Mike Whitaker said the company needed "a fundamental cultural shift ... that’s oriented around safety and quality above profits." 

On the financial side, Boeing posted a loss of nearly $12 billion last year, hampered by a seven-week machinist strike.

Now, the NTSB meeting comes as Boeing faces new scrutiny after a 787 Dreamliner operated by Air India crashed shortly after takeoff from Ahmedabad. 

That crash killed at least 270 people. 

Meanwhile, a lawsuit brought by passengers on board the Alaska Airlines flight has been allowed to move forward, after a Washington Superior Court judge rejected an attempt by Boeing last month to dismiss the case.

New York City primary elections

Information compiled by Owen Bonertz

JIMMY: New York City voters will rank a crowded slate of local government candidates to pick party nominees Tuesday.

That includes a tightly contested mayoral race between former Governor Andrew Cuomo and 33-year-old leftist state assemblyman Zohran Mamdani.

Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams decided to leave the Democratic Party and run as an independent.

That, after facing corruption charges and a potential impeachment trial in 2024. 

Cuomo initially led polling for the mayor's office by a significant margin, but recent weeks have seen Mamdani surge to a small lead in some polls. 

New York City primaries have been held with ranked-choice voting since 2021, and Mamdani has coordinated with the third-highest polling candidate and fellow progressive Brad Lander for their voters to rank the pair first and second regardless of preference. 

Cuomo and Mamdani’s campaigns have frequently sparred on the city’s stance towards Israel, as well as Mamdani’s proposals for free bus fares and Cuomo’s call for a beefed-up police force. 

Now, both Cuomo and Mamdani will likely contend with a chaotic election against Republican Curtis Sliwa, sitting mayor Eric Adams and the second-place Democrat running as an independent or through the Working Families Party. 

The city will also choose Democratic candidates for the crucial roles of public advocate and comptroller. 

Issue polling of New Yorkers has shown that public safety and affordability are the top priorities for voters, while 62 percent of respondents felt that the city is moving in the wrong direction.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors David Wyllie, Awais Ahmad, Joe Veyera and Owen Bonertz . Our interview featured editor Vivian Wang and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe