This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is July 3, 2025.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got Europe’s heat wave and wildfires, the Dalai Lama revealing a succession plan, an OPEC+ meeting, Israel’s prime minister visiting Washington, D.C., and Trump’s tariff pause set to expire. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Europe heat wave

Interview featuring Jess Fino

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the heatwave wreaking havoc in Europe. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Jess Fino.

JIMMY: Hello, Jess. 

JESS: Oh, hi, Jimmy. 

JIMMY: I'm usually jealous of you being in Europe, but not so much right now. You all are having some brutal weather. You know, what's -- what's been going on? 

JESS: I know! Sure thing. It's been – it's been hot. So, you know, it's that time of the year. Summer has arrived and so have heat waves and wildfires. And countries in southern Europe in particular have been hit this past week by a heat wave with temperatures going above 40 degrees Celsius, which is 104 degrees Fahrenheit for you guys. In Spain, Portugal, Greece and France, this heat has led to several wildfires breaking across the continent, with Greece being badly affected, so far. A large fire was burning close to Athens on Thursday, which led to evacuations and burned houses. At least eight people have died in heat-related incidents so far: four in Spain, two in Italy and two in France. And then elsewhere, in the UK of all places, an amber weather alert was issued last week and extended until this past Tuesday. Thankfully, temperatures have since dropped after record temperatures which we saw earlier this week.

JIMMY: And what's the latest? There been any new developments? 

JESS: So things seem to be getting better as of late Wednesday in southern Europe, with temperatures expected continue to drop this week. However, while France lifted all its red alerts for Thursday, 40 departments remain under orange heat wave alerts, and several countries remained with emergency plans in place. Now the heat wave seems now to be moving east towards Germany, with record temperatures forcing authorities to restrict water use across dozens of districts. I'll also mention that a bit further out of Europe, we're seeing large wildfires in Turkey, which are not showing any signs of slowing down, and which have led to thousands of people evacuated and airports disrupted.

JIMMY: What sort of reactions to the heat and fires have you seen?

JESS: Well, it's not just temperatures that are on the rise. Tensions in France, for example, are also high as the heat wave led to a row in parliament over air conditioning. So, the French far-right leader Marine Le Pen took the opportunity to say she would launch a big drive for AC nationwide if she were to win the next year's elections, and then the government accused her of being incompetent for suggesting AC was a solution to climate crisis. Some of the measures France and Italy put in place, like closing over 2,000 French schools and the Italian government banning outside work from 11 am to 4 pm, made international headlines – I think, perhaps, for being quite unprecedented measures. 

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next? 

JESS: So, as I mentioned, with the heat wave now moving east, we'll be paying attention to how countries not as used to them will react to high temperatures. And also, this fairly early first heat wave of the summer will much definitely not be the last. We've just seen them starting earlier and earlier every year. This is before the peak summer months. And, I should mention, like, heat waves also have an important impact on food production. Italian farmers have already warned that there's been a 10% drop in milk production due to this latest heat wave, and we are expected to see other impacts after several crops are burning during these wildfires, so that's another thing to consider. 

JIMMY: Well, Jess, we'll have to pause there for today, but thank you so much for your time and for getting us up to speed. Appreciate it. 

JESS: Thanks so much for having me. Bye.

Dalai Lama set to reveal succession plan

Information compiled by Hua Hsieh

JIMMY: The Dalai Lama is turning 90 this Sunday, and he’s expected to speak at a religious conference where he may also share new details about who could succeed him. 

Now, the Dalai Lama—Tibetan Buddhism’s spiritual leader—has lived in exile in India since 1959. That’s when he fled after a failed uprising against Chinese rule. 

China, of course, refers to its takeover of Tibet as a “peaceful liberation.” 

Since then, the Dalai Lama has been based in Dharamshala, where he set up a government-in-exile and has continued to push for autonomy and religious freedom for Tibetans. 

While he remains extremely popular and well-repected among the Tibetan public, Beijing has long viewed him as a separatist that endangers its rule in the region.

Now, according to Tibetan tradition, when a senior Buddhist monk dies, their soul is reincarnated in the body of a chosen child. 

That’s part of why the question of the Dalai Lama’s successor is so politically charged. 

While China would likely want to choose a successor of Dalai Lama that adheres to the Communist Party, the Dalai Lama has urged his followers to reject anyone chosen by Beijing and said that his successor will possibly be born in the “free world” outside China.

Since its annexation of Tibet in the 1950s and through the 2008 unrest, Beijing has continued to tighten its hold on the region by implementing economic, social and religious “integration policies.”

The Dalai Lama eventually stepped back from his political role in exile, but the question of his reincarnation remains a major sticking point between him and the Chinese government. 

It’s also a persistent source of tension between China and India, which continues to host the Dalai Lama and, as we look ahead, the issue of succession won’t just shape the future of Tibetan Buddhism—it could also have a profound impact on regional stability.

OPEC+ meeting

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: OPEC+, the alliance of major oil-producing countries, is set to meet this Sunday.

The meetings happen periodically, giving member countries a chance to coordinate oil production levels. 

Together, OPEC+ accounts for about half of the world’s total oil output. 

The goal is to maximize market share against non-OPEC+ rivals such as the United States as well as maintain price stability. 

Now, while unconfirmed, many expect the group to sign off on another production increase—potentially adding 411,000 barrels per day.

If that goes through, it would mark another step in what’s been a steady ramp-up in production this year. That’s a shift after years of cuts totalling more than 5 million barrels per day. 

Combined with a continued ceasefire between Iran and Israel, the expected hike in August could keep pushing oil prices down. Still, continued bearish global economic sentiment leaves demand-side price pressures a possibility.

Israeli prime minister visits D.C.

Information compiled by Agnese Boffano

JIMMY: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will make an official visit to the United States and meet with President Donald Trump on Monday.

The two leaders were in direct coordination back in late June, when the U.S. launched a series of strikes targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities—an intervention in the conflict between Israel and Iran. 

Iran then retaliated by firing on a U.S. base in Qatar, though no casualties were reported. 

And despite reaching a U.S.-brokered ceasefire, Trump criticized both Israel and Iran on their actions post-ceasefire, urging both parties to “calm down”—a comment that drew plenty of attention.

Now, this upcoming visit will be the first face-to-face meeting between Netanyahu and Trump since those strikes. 

While in Washington, Netanyahu is also expected to meet with several senior U.S. officials, in his words, “close a few things in order to reach a trade agreement.” 

The visit also comes following suggestions from Trump about the possibility of reaching a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. That war has dragged on for nearly 20 months and claimed more than 56,500 lives. 

Hamas, meanwhile, has also confirmed that mediation talks are continuing with the Israelis, but does not believe talks to end the war in the long-term is part of Israel’s agenda.

Trump's 90-day tariff pause set to expire

Information compiled by Jeff Landset

JIMMY: U.S. President Donald Trump says he’s not considering an extension to his Wednesday deadline for other countries to make trade deals, or face higher tariff rates.

Back on April 2nd, Trump rolled out a new slate of import tariffs that apply to nearly every country. 

Most nations would see a 10 percent baseline, but others could face higher rates, depending on a formula based on apparent trade surpluses. 

That move shook global markets. 

The Nasdaq suffered its worst single-day drop since March 2020. 

A week later, on what the president dubbed “Liberation Day,” he announced a 90-day pause on those tariffs—except for China—to give countries time to negotiate individual deals. 

Markets bounced back after that, with the S&P 500 recovering all of its losses by May 13th, the day after a minor trade deal was reached with Beijing.

Since then, few deals have been made and new reports suggest the Trump administration is focused on making smaller agreements instead of more comprehensive, time-consuming ones. 

Finally, if Trump holds firm and doesn’t extend the tariff pause, the stock market could take another hit similar to the one in April. 

However, analysts don’t appear too worried, some citing the viral acronym “TACO,” short for “Trump Always Chickens Out.”

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Hua Hsieh, Alex Moore, Agnese Boffano and Jeff Landset. Our interview featured editor Jess Fino and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe