This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is July 10, 2025.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got the deadly floods in Texas, the dissolution of a Kurdish militant group, the FIFA Club World Cup final in New Jersey, the U.S. ending deportation protections for Afghans and an AI and energy summit in Pennsylvania.   

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Texas flooding

Interview featuring Joe Veyera

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the devastating floods in Texas. For more on that I’ve got the lead for our North America coverage, Joe Veyera.

JIMMY: Hello, Joe. 

JOE: Hey, Jimmy. How's it going? 

JIMMY: It's good, though we've got a terribly sad story to cover this week. But, you know, nonetheless, I'm hoping you can get us up to speed on it all. So I guess to start, you know, let's just jump into it. What's happened so far?

JOE: Yeah, so following very heavy rainfall that was fueled in part by remnant moisture from the former Tropical Storm Barry, the Guadalupe River in Texas' Hill Country experienced historic flooding on the early morning of July 4, rising 26 feet over the course of just 45 minutes at one point, peaking at 35 feet in the town of Kerrville at just before 7 a.m. that morning. And to give you an idea of where this is, it's a little over 60 miles to the northwest of San Antonio, or 100 miles west of Austin, so smack dab in the center of the state. The impact, as you mentioned, was devastating. Over 100 people are dead so far, including 27 campers and counselors at Camp Mystic, which is the most tragic part of it all. And to get into the conditions that caused such a catastrophic event, this part of Texas is considered “Flash Flood Alley.” There's this mix of rocky, shallow soil, steep terrain, and the location itself – where you have cold, dry air from the north and wet, warm air from the Gulf – that lends itself to periods of heavy rainfall, though this was something much more historic in terms of scope.

JIMMY: And what's the response to the flooding been like?

JOE: The big thing is the confusion over the emergency alert system. On the morning of the fourth, a county official said “we have no warning system.” But there is a CodeRED system that has been in place since 2009 and some people reported receiving flood warnings within an hour of them being issued. Other people waited much longer. So there's a real disconnect in terms of what the emergency alert system even looks like in this part of Texas. The other more disconcerting thing in terms of response is the conspiracies that are circulating among far right figures, including one we saw from Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who claimed that cloud seeding was to blame for this flooding, and others have said this was a deliberate weather weapon used against Texas. And this gets into a broader topic of extremist figures targeting next generation weather radar systems, or NEXRAD, which are used by meteorologists to help forecast severe weather. They have claimed that these systems are “weather weapons” and they are “poisoning the skies,” is the the term they use there. And we've seen at least one attack in the past few days on a radar system used out of Oklahoma City.

JIMMY: Well, what's the latest? There been any new developments?

JOE: So as of Wednesday afternoon, more than 160 people were “known to be missing,” according to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, with the death toll at 119 also as of now. There are more than 2,200 personnel, 1,200 vehicles and equipment assets deployed across the state.

JIMMY: Well, considering that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next then?

JOE: I think there are several things. First of all, just what we're going to see with emergency communications and where the breakdowns were that allowed this level of devastation to occur. And we have seen Texas Gov. Abbott call a special session, and among those topics are going to be the emergency systems, as well as flood warning systems, natural disaster preparations, and relief funding for the people that were impacted in this event. Sadly, it's also at the point where we're far enough away that the search and rescue operations have shifted to recovery. So we'll see what that death toll ends up being with such a large number of people still missing.

JIMMY: Well, Joe, we'll have to pause there for today, but as usual, thanks so much for your time and for keeping us up to speed. Appreciate it.

JOE: Would love to have better news for you next time.

JIMMY: Take care.

PKK dissolution

Information compiled by Matthew Hipolito

JIMMY: The militant group known as the Kurdistan Workers’ Party – or PKK – will finally and symbolically dissolve itself at a ceremony in Sulaymaniyah, Iraq, on Friday, ending their 40-year insurgency against the Turkish government.

The group, as you may recall, has sought greater political autonomy and cultural recognition for Kurdish people in the Turkey-Syria border region.

The dissolution comes after protracted negotiations between the Turkish President Recep Erdogan’s regime and the PKK’s leader, Abdullah Öcalan, who has been imprisoned for over 20 years. 

At the conclusion of the talks, Ocalan stated that policies denying the existence of Kurds and restrictions on freedom of expression had ended, emphasizing the importance of democratic society in ensuring “permanent and fraternal continuity.” He then called for the PKK to dissolve itself. 

The PKK congress voted to do so in early May, echoing Ocalan’s call for democratic engagement and calling their decades of activity a “successful struggle.”  

Now, lasting change is no guarantee. 

Although the dissolution of the PKK is the largest step yet taken, peace processes in 2004 and in 2015 both collapsed with the resumption of hostilities. 

Statements from both sides make only vague comments about adherence to democratic principles, with Erdogan – whose regime has presided over democratic backsliding – claiming that the peace process will accelerate as the PKK gradually hands over their weapons. 

Furthermore, Kurdish units who have fought against Turkey are being integrated into the new Syrian military after the Assad regime’s fall, and will retain their weapons, bases, and power structure in the Turkish border region.

2025 FIFA Club World Cup final in New Jersey

Information compiled by Awais Ahmad

JIMMY: The FIFA Club World Cup 2025 will draw to a close on Sunday. 

That's when London’s Chelsea faces off against Paris’ PSG in the tournament’s final at the MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. 

The month-long tournament, which kicked off June 14 and featured 32 teams from every continent, has been anything but predictable. 

Saudi Arabia’s Al-Hilal shocked Manchester City in the Round of 16, while Brazil’s Fluminense made an impressive run before falling to Chelsea in the semis. 

Chelsea heads into the final as one of the favorites to take home the trophy — and collect the tournament’s record $40 million top prize.

Now, Sunday’s match is expected to draw more than 50,000 fans to MetLife Stadium. 

Security has been tight throughout the tournament, and it’s only expected to ramp up with the final, especially after President Donald Trump confirmed he’s attending. 

The presence of ICE and DHS agents earlier in the tournament drew backlash from immigrant fans, but officials say that level of federal coordination is standard for events of this scale.

U.S. terminates protected status for Afghans

Information compiled by Theresa Seiger

JIMMY: The Department of Homeland Security is ending deportation protections for Afghans in the United States starting Monday night.

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem in May announced the termination of “temporary protected status” for Afghanistan, saying in a statement that a review had determined that “Afghanistan has had an improved security situation, and its stabilizing economy no longer prevent [Afghans] from returning to their home country.” 

Afghans were granted temporary protected status in 2022 under then-President Joe Biden after the last U.S. troops left Afghanistan in 2021 and the Taliban returned to power. 

Now, the end of deportation protections comes as Afghanistan remains under a Level 4 travel advisory from the U.S. State Department. 

That advisory cites the risk of “civil unrest, crime, terrorism, risk of wrongful detention, kidnapping, and limited health facilities.” 

The situation in Afghanistan prompted the U.N. General Assembly to adopt a resolution last Monday, over objections from Israel and the U.S., calling for “a renewed push for human rights, peace and stability.” 

Among other things, the group pointed to the country’s “overstretched humanitarian system” and “extrajudicial punishments” carried out by the Taliban. 

As of September, there were more than 9,000 Afghans in the United States who had temporary protected status.

Trump attends AI and energy summit in Pennsylvania

Information compiled by Jeff Landset 

JIMMY: President Donald Trump will be in Pittsburgh on Wednesday as his administration continues to focus on the future of artificial intelligence and its energy needs.

Pennsylvania Sen. Dave McCormick campaigned last year on making the state a natural gas powerhouse through fracking.

He’s now a powerful member of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, and has put together the Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Summit, which pitches the battleground state as a future home for AI ventures. 

Others already see it that way, especially after Amazon announced a $20 billion investment to build two data centers in the state.

Now, several tech and energy bigwigs are on the guest list, including Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman from OpenAI, and the CEOs of ExxonMobil, Shell and Chevron. 

One of the focuses of the summit will be the growing energy demands of AI to train algorithms and process huge amounts of data. 

Still, some companies are already sounding the alarm – a Mid-Atlantic grid operator says it’s already seeing less capacity because of AI and its requirements.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Matthew Hipolito, Awais Ahmad, Theresa Seiger and Jeff Landset. Our interview featured editor Joe Veyera and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe