This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is July 17, 2025.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got the fighting in Syria, an election in Japan, a parliament session in India, new immigration rules in the UK and the World Court issuing a climate change opinion. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Syria fighting

Interview featuring Agnese Boffano

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the recent violence in Syria. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Agnese Boffano.

JIMMY: Hello, Agnese.

AGNESE: Hey there, Jimmy.

JIMMY: Agnese, glad you’re here. We’ve seen some fighting recently in southern Syria and I’m hoping you can get us all caught up on the situation. So, to start, what’s going on? 

AGNESE: Yeah, I’ll start with kind of when it happened, when it started happening. It all kind of began last weekend when fighting broke out between members of Syria’s Druze community and also local militias in the southwestern city of Sweida, which does have a majority Druze population even though they’re a minority in Syria itself. Now this quickly escalated into very deadly urban fighting, both within city limits but also across Sweida province. And then the government administration, which is led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, who is, you remember, has been heading the Syrian state since the ousting of former longtime President Assad, Bashar al-Assad, last December. And so he announced that they would enter the city in order to attempt to curb the fighting – so this was on Monday. And after about 24 hours they did announce a ceasefire – an initial ceasefire – to the fighting. So this was around Tuesday around noon. But now here is where things get more complicated. Because after government forces entered Sweida and declared a ceasefire, reports started emerging about allegations of civilian killings, and torture of members of the Druze community, which appear to have angered residents of Sweida alongside the, you know, the continued presence of the army within the city and so this appeared to have triggered fighting again to resume, even more intensely, and with direct involvement of the security forces. Until finally again on Wednesday afternoon, the leadership affiliated with some of the more lenient religious leaders among the Druze community, they announced that a ceasefire was again reached in accordance with the Syrian government, who in turn agreed to withdraw from Sweida and fully transfer matters to the internal security forces. The situation is still very much up in the air, but as we record this podcast a few hours later, there are reports that some pockets of fighting remain especially as one of the three most prominent Druze leaders al-Hajri, who – he has been particularly critical of al-Sharaa and has, he’s even called for the foreign intervention into Syria. He’s disputed the ceasefire.

JIMMY: And what’s Israel’s involvement in all this?

AGNESE: Yeah, so that’s the, kind of, second element to this. So, even before Syrian government forces formally entered Sweida city earlier in the week, Israel conducted a series of strikes on government troops and other such regime assets in the region, which led to a number of them killed. And then this really escalated on Wednesday when Israel began attacking major government buildings in the capital Damascus itself. For example they struck the defense ministry building which is in central Damascus and the Presidential Palace itself. We have reports from Syrian war monitors – from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights – saying that at least three people have been killed and dozens of others injured as a result of these Israeli strikes on the capital. And of course, this is not to mention the huge damage inflicted on these buildings. We were watching live broadcasts at the time from Umayyad Square there in downtown Damascus and we were watching on Wednesday there which, you know, the capture of the huge clouds of smoke following the strikes on the defense ministry building. And these attacks appear not to have subsided, and Israel has said that it would continue striking what it called were “regime targets”, right, as long as they posed a threat, which – these seem to be the ongoing line that they’ve been using in the region, and on this occasion in Syria they’ve commented on government assets posing a threat not only to Israel itself but as they said also a threat to the Druze community, for which, you know, they’re referring to the fighting between government forces and the militants and the Druze in Sweida. But yeah, with regards to the Druze, we know that Israel has claimed to have been protecting the rights of that community for a while now, and they’ve been particularly open about this relationship ever since the ousting of Assad last year. And although they’ve been conducting strikes on Syria quite regularly since the regime change in December – they’ve, you know, they’ve hit Hezbollah and Iranian targets and those belonging to the former regime, they’ve never actually really hit the current government in the way that they’re doing now.

JIMMY: Well, what kind of reactions have you seen to all this?

AGNESE: So I’ve kind of gone through the reactions from the Druze leadership a little bit in that, you know, they appear to be, at this time, still quite split on exactly how to respond to the Syrian government. Obviously among the community there is a sense of fear in that the government’s treatment of minorities, which is quite reminiscent of when we saw fighting break out in March this year, if you can remember, between members of the Syrian forces and the Alawite minority in Latakia. And the response there has been on one side, you know especially among followers of the al-Hajri cleric that I mentioned before, to continue resisting the authority of the Syrian state by continuing to fight, and on the other side some Druze including those with cleric Jarbou, for example, who’s the one who agreed to the deescalation deal with the Damascus-based government on Wednesday, they’ve been rejecting Israeli incursions and they’ve actually been quite adamant that the minority group didn’t actually ask for Israeli help.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next then?

AGNESE: Yeah, so, just to mention, we know that Israel continues to be an occupying force within Syria past, you know, the buffer zone of the already occupied Golan Heights and it continues to expand its military presence within Syria proper as well. They have stated that their military presence in that area is of a defensive nature, and likewise have said that their strikes in southern Syria and in Damascus now are part of a policy of – to demilitarize the south and protect the Druze. We’ve got Israeli officials saying that these will continue and in fact we’ve been seeing these strikes continuing despite the supposed ceasefire, right, still being in place. So I think what this boils down to, ultimately, is the prospect of Syrian normalisation with Israel, which the two countries technically have been at war since the – since 1948, right? But the two have reportedly held talks mediated by the UAE and very much being pushed by Trump who just wants to pull Syria into the Abraham Accords. And of course, this would have to include the Golan as part of the deal, with the Israelis perhaps envisioning a West Bank type model, but this current method of attacking the Syrian government and using the Druze question as an initial justification of its interference, I see, personally, as an initial method to just push this deal forward. So in other terms, some people are arguing that what Israel is doing right now is striking the Damascus-based government into accepting a peace deal with Israel in order to survive, really, because let’s face it Syria does not possess the capabilities to attack or really threaten the Israeli state, but it does potentially face a very difficult situation were Israel to continue. So, in terms of what we’re watching for next, aside from a possible normalisation deal, we’re looking at, in the near future, just continuing Israeli airstrikes in the region and on government assets in Damascus, particularly. I personally also believe in a significant expansion of the Israeli military way beyond its current lines in the Golan-adjacent area, and I do think that the timing now seems to be quite ideal for that. And then if we look at what to watch for next internally for Syria, I think we’ll just have to see how strong the Syrian state can be. You know, this is additional test to the sectarian violence that it is facing. You know, so we’ll have to see whether the ceasefire holds and actually manages to bring deescalation to both the entire Druze sect, which as we talked about is quite split, and also the members of the government who appear to have engaged in out-of-the-line fighting. And in fact, questions are starting to arise about a scenario that appears to be very similar to Latakia again, as I mentioned a few months ago, specifically about alleged abuses by members of the Syrian government forces. And again, this raises questions about whether the HTS-led government which, you know, we can have as much faith as we want on the new leadership, in al-Sharaa, but we know several members of this group have a past of extremism that is not quite tolerant to sectarian minorities including the Druze, and so this will, again, will play out as a chapter to indicate whether a future Syria led by al-Sharaa is attainable or not.

JIMMY: Well, Agnese, we’ll have to pause there, but as usual, thanks so much for your time and for keeping such a close eye on the region for us. Always appreciate it. 

AGNESE: Thank you.

Japan upper house election

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: Voters in Japan will choose representatives in the upper house of the country’s parliament on Sunday. It’s a key test of support for embattled Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

Half of the 248 seats in the House of Councillors are up for grabs with each representative serving a three-year term. 

Inflation and the cost of living remain a top issue for voters, with recent local elections in Tokyo seeing strong gains for populist parties amid public frustration.

Ishiba, who took personal responsibility for getting prices under control, has struggled to assert his leadership following October’s snap election in which his coalition lost its lower house majority. 

Now, at least one poll shows the country’s ruling bloc may lose its grip on power, which would be a sharp rebuke of Ishiba, who took power in 2024 following a leadership challenge. 

A poor showing at the polls could trigger calls for his resignation or ignite a new internal challenge within his Liberal Democratic Party.

Indian Parliament's Monsoon Session starts

Information compiled by Vivian Wang

JIMMY: On Monday, India’s parliament will begin its second legislative session this year.

Of course, this session will be the first held since the deadly Pahalgam terror attack that sparked a brief conflict between India and Pakistan earlier this year. 

Opposition parties have been critical of India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi for not calling a special session of Parliament sooner after the attack 

Now, Parliament will hold 21 sittings between Monday and Aug. 21, with holidays scheduled for Independence Day celebrations. 

The Pahalgam attack and Operation Sindoor as well as India’s foreign relations and a voter list revision in Bihar are likely to be discussed, as well as eight new bills.

U.K.'s new immigration rules come into force

Information compiled by Jess Fino

JIMMY: The United Kingdom’s new immigration rules come into effect on Tuesday. 

The government, led by the Labour Party since last year, introduced a new set of rules aimed at ending the U.K.’s reliance on overseas workers and cutting immigration numbers. 

Each sector will be required to have a strategy in place to train and employ British workers, rather than relying on overseas, lower skilled recruitment. The current immigration salary list will also be abolished. 

Now, the changes come as Prime Minister Keir Starmer accused the previous government of running an immigration system that “relied on cheap foreign labor.” 

However, the new policy has been strongly criticized, with one of the most controversial changes being the inability of people coming to work in the country to bring dependents. 

Additionally, the Confederation of British Industry said that restrictions on visas for lower skilled roles will pose challenges for sectors that are battling the effects of labor shortages. 

Further policies will be introduced later this year, including raising sponsorship fees for overseas workers under certain visa routes and introducing tougher language requirements.

World Court to issue climate change opinion

Information compiled by Jeff Landset

JIMMY: The International Court of Justice will announce on Wednesday if countries are legally obligated to fight climate change.

In March of 2023, the United Nations General Assembly requested a ruling from the ICJ on two questions: does a country have an obligation to stop greenhouse gases and if so, what are the legal consequences for a country that caused significant harm to another that’s vulnerable to climate change, like Vanuatu, which led the push to get the court to weigh in. 

Dozens of countries, including the United States and China, made statements to the court last December. 

No other World Court case has ever seen that many participants, underscoring the importance of the topic. 

Now, although the court’s opinion is not legally binding, it will carry significant weight in the international community. 

After all, the ruling could influence countries on their current or future participation in climate policies or treaties. 

Saudi Arabia argued any further obligations could undermine treaties like the Paris Accords. 

Finally, the coming opinion may also substantiate the climate justice movement, which declares that the people who are least responsible for climate change are usually the ones most affected by it. 

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors David Wyllie, Vivian Wang, Jess Fino and Jeff Landset. Our interview featured editor Agnese Boffano and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

Copyright © 2025 Factal. All rights reserved.

Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe