This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is July 24, 2025.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got an update on the war in Ukraine, labor strikes at airports in Portugal, parliamentary recall votes in Taiwan, Trump’s birthright citizenship order and NOAA discontinuing some of its weather data. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Russia-Ukraine war update

Interview featuring Alex Moore

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll check in on the war in Ukraine. For more on that I’ve got the lead for our Europe desk, Senior Editor Alex Moore.

JIMMY: Hello, Alex. 

ALEX: Hello, Jimmy. 

JIMMY: Well, Alex, it's been a few months since we've checked in with you about the war in Ukraine. I guess, you know, just generally, what's been going on?

ALEX: Yeah, I suppose it's been a few months because it's been a relatively quiet – at least from the standpoint of, you know, new developments or news over the past couple of months. I believe the last time we spoke was about the Ukrainian FPV drone strikes on a couple of Russian strategic bomber bases. But, yeah, the last few months have kind of been characterized by really heavy stagnation. I mean, obviously the pace of offensive operations along the front has calmed significantly over the past year or so, notwithstanding, of course, the Russian counter-offensive in Kursk Oblast. But along the Ukrainian front in the east, things have been heavily stagnated due to a few reasons. I mean, the most obvious and pertinent is just the mass proliferation of frontline FPV drones has just made offensive operations extremely difficult. Russia is barely even attempting any more armored offensives. And you know, in years past, in eastern Ukraine, we've seen massive, significant armored offensives involving, you know, more than 100 armored vehicles, such as the one on Vuhledar a couple years back. But that has largely ceased to exist. The front lines remain the same. You know, you've still got your key hot spots around Pokrovsk. Somewhat notably, Russia has kind of stopped pushing directly toward the city of Pokrovsk and is now attempting to flank it to the northeast a little bit. But once again, the fundamental difficulty here is that when you're encountering offensive operations in open space, you're able just to get chewed up by FPV drones, and [it] just sort of creates this perpetual cat and mouse game that Ukraine and Russia have been playing for a few years now, after drones became sort of a ubiquitous part of this conflict along the front line. The latest of which is that, you know, the massive usage of fiber optic cables to power these drones to prevent jamming. But of course, there's always a cat and mouse game to it, and the adjustment to that reaction is that Ukraine is now attempting to put lasers on their own FPV drones to cut the fiber optic cables. So, long story short, there's not a lot of significant movement along the front. Ukraine has also done a halfway decent job of bolstering what was arguably the most significant issue facing them on the front, which was manpower. They lowered conscription age a while ago, two years down to 25, but they've also initiated other ways to get contract soldiers, one of which relates to mobilizing select convicts – so people that were convicted of crimes – some of them are now operating along the front. There's also a concerted push to provide, you know, sort of monetary incentives, or, you know, having a ‘university paid for’ incentives for people between the ages of 18 and 24 to volunteer as contract soldiers. So, not conscription, but yeah. Long story short, they've done a halfway decent job of bolstering the manpower issue, because, as we talked about numerous times here, Ukraine – the median front line age of soldiers is extremely old, and that was a major issue. But yeah, long story short, there is not a ton of movement on the front line.

JIMMY: What about the latest? Have there been any new developments?

ALEX: Yeah, right now as we speak, which is Wednesday, July 23, Ukraine and Russia have just kicked off the third round of talks in Istanbul. There is little to no chance whatsoever, or the expectation – even if you ask, you know, Peskov or Ukrainian officials – of any meaningful breakthrough in these talks. But you know, they're not entirely done for the sole purpose of both sides posturing to try to convince President Trump that they're pushing for peace, which, of course, there is a significant component of that. But you know, the previous rounds of talks have yielded, you know, some meaningful agreements, such as the largest-scale POW transfers of the war, due to the fact that Russia is the only side taking territory right now along the front; they have a lot more remains of dead Ukrainian soldiers than the inverse. So any of these agreements that are leading to transfer of remains, you know, that's taking place. So it's yet to be seen what these talks will result in. Both sides remain very entrenched in their overarching points, you know, one of which is that Ukraine continues to seek a ceasefire along the front before they engage in a peace deal. Russia is not willing to do that because they believe in their eyes that they are, you know, bolstering their hand in peace talks on a daily basis, despite their truly massive losses along the front. But that's something that they can sustain. On that note, Russia has, you know – they're moving to increase conscription in Russia to be a year-round endeavor, as opposed to twice a year. They are also furthering their rearmament plans, which has, you know, essentially led to the economy being put on a permanent war footing. You know, Shahed drones are being mass produced in gargantuan numbers in Russia. So Russia is – they're digging in for this to be a long war. And I suppose President Trump has also, you know, he sort of oscillates on, you know, a fairly consistent basis in his, you know, stated support for one side or the other. As it currently stands, the latest is that, you know, he is pretty upset with President Putin, and after a brief pause, military aid to Ukraine is back on. So yeah, the machinations continue. We will see what if anything of substance comes out of Istanbul, but both sides remain extremely far apart on any negotiated pause, or, you know, settlement in its totality to the war. 

JIMMY: Well, what sort of reactions to all this have you been seeing?

ALEX: I guess the – I sort of got into it a bit with President Trump being kind of like the most notable, you know, reactor to the conflict as of late. I guess politically in Ukraine, the big story this week is a sort of surprise and controversial move, both from the Rada, which is largely controlled by Zelenskyy's party, and Zelenskyy himself, who signed the bill to strip multiple anti-corruption bodies. These watchdogs that were established in the wake of the Euromaidan Revolution a decade ago to, sort of, appoint presidential appointee oversight over these bodies, which was met with a firestorm. I'm not quite sure Zelenskyy foresaw that, both domestically, with the first sort of large-scale protest since the onset of the full invasion three and a half years ago. Obviously the martial law that Ukraine remains under sort of prevents, ostensibly, these large-scale gatherings, but the population took to the streets from Lviv to Kyiv to Odessa, everywhere in between, with very, very strong, passionate protests against this law. The European Union and European countries, such as Germany, have sort of heavily condemned it. The latest on that front is that Zelenskyy, just as of speaking about an hour ago, announced that he would initiate a new bill that would, you know, bolster the independence of anti-corruption bodies. There is yet to be any details as to what that means. I should have mentioned Zelenskyy's argument on this front is that the independent anti-corruption bodies were sort of overcome by Russian influence. That was sort of the stated rationale here, but critics obviously allege that this was, you know, done to implement more top-down state control over the anti-corruption watchdogs, that is, and that is extremely unpopular in Ukraine, as we've seen over the past day.

JIMMY: Well, considering all this, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next then?

ALEX: Yeah, the – you know, sort of how this shakes out as it pertains to the corruption watchdogs, that's worth monitoring. It might not necessarily have significant war impact, but for any Ukraine watcher, it's a major deal. It's, you know, one of the most significant political stories in Ukraine in quite a long time, domestically at least. As for the war itself, just more of the same. I mean, the Ukrainian defense, the linchpin of it is, again, it's sort of bolstered by staying one step ahead of Russia and this FPV drone cat and mouse game. Because while Ukraine has had the initiative in sort of innovating on this front for the entirety of the War, Russia obviously possesses the Trump card in being able to scale more than Ukraine can. So Ukraine needs to perpetually stay one foot ahead in this regard. That is kind of the linchpin of their defense, the Donbas and, yeah, I wouldn't expect any significant collapse whatsoever along the Ukrainian Front anytime soon, in any of the hot spots. There was, you know, for a few weeks or a couple of months there – there was a lot of worry about Russia potentially launching a major offensive south toward the city of Sumy, across the border from Kursk, after they largely, if not entirely, pushed the Ukrainians out of Kursk Oblast. Those fears, we can pretty safely say at this point, are not entirely founded. There's no threat of any significant breakthrough there either. So yeah, we'll just continue to monitor the war as it keeps apace.

JIMMY: Well, Alex, then that seems like a good place to pause for today. But thank you so much for your time and for keeping such a close eye on the region for us. Appreciate it,

ALEX: Of course. Thank you, Jimmy.

Strikes at Portuguese airports

Information compiled by Jess Fino

JIMMY: Workers at aviation services company Menzies will begin taking strike actions at airports in Portugal starting tomorrow. 

The staff’s union said earlier this month they will strike on the last weekend of July and the last four weekends of August. 

The workers demand better pay, the payment of night shifts and access to airport’s parking lots.

Now, while the union has said that workers will ensure the minimum services “for the safety and maintenance of equipment and facilities,” the action is still expected to cause disruption at the popular European destination during one of the busiest periods of the year. 

It also comes when airports in Portugal already face problems with overcrowding and lack of staff, with regular reports of long waits at security. 

The government is planning to build a second airport near the capital Lisbon to reduce congestion, but the plans have faced continuous setbacks.

Taiwan’s parliamentary recall votes

Information compiled by Hua Hsieh 

JIMMY: More than one-fifth of Taiwanese lawmakers will face the largest recall election in the country's history on Saturday. 

While Lai Ching-te won the presidency last year, his party Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) currently holds only 51 seats out of the 113 in the legislature, leaving the opposition with the majority of 62 seats. 

Mass protests and civil campaigns calling to remove the opposition lawmakers emerged after the main opposition party Kuomintang (KMT), and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), pushed through a series of controversial parliamentary reform bills. 

That was followed by major budget cuts across multiple government ministries. 

The recalls have been framed as an effort to “oppose Communist China,” with civic groups accusing the opposition of intentionally paralysing the government under the influence of Beijing. 

The KMT, despite regularly sending its lawmakers on visits to China, denies being pro-China and said that it is only exercising its right to supervise the government. 

A total of 24 KMT lawmakers and a TPP mayor will face the recall on Saturday, with ballots over seven others scheduled for Aug. 23. 

Now, whether the recalls will succeed is seen as crucial to Taiwan’s domestic politics. It may determine if the DPP can win back the majority in the legislature. 

While the KMT can stand again and may well win back its seats in the by-elections, if enough opposition lawmakers lose their seats, the DPP will have the majority in the parliament in the period after the recalls and before the by-election.

SCOTUS’ 30-day pause on Trump’s birthright citizenship order ends

Information compiled by Theresa Seiger

JIMMY: A pause on a U.S. Supreme Court ruling limiting nationwide injunctions in connection to President Donald Trump’s birthright citizenship order ends on Sunday.

Trump issued an executive order shortly after taking office in January to deny citizenship to those born on U.S. soil on or after Feb. 20 to parents who were not in the country legally. 

The order sparked multiple legal challenges, with federal judges blocking it with a nationwide injunction in three separate cases. 

The Trump administration then turned to the Supreme Court for relief. 

And in a 6-3 ruling handed down last month, the nation’s highest court halted the injunctions, finding that they likely exceeded the powers given to federal courts. 

The court paused implementation of its ruling until Sunday.

Now, the Supreme Court directed lower courts to determine whether more specified injunctions would be appropriate in connection with the cases challenging Trump’s order. 

Earlier this month, a federal judge in New Hampshire certified a nationwide class “comprised only of those deprived of citizenship” and issued a new, class-wide preliminary injunction blocking the order. 

That prompted criticism from the White House. 

The Supreme Court is expected to hear arguments over Trump’s executive order again in the future. 

In its June ruling, the court did not address arguments over whether the order violates the Constitution’s 14th Amendment.

NOAA discontinues weather forecasting data satellite program

Information compiled by Owen Bonertz

JIMMY: The U.S. government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, otherwise known as NOAA, will stop ingesting data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) no later than next Thursday.

That move may potentially impact forecasting capabilities during the country’s hurricane season.

NOAA fired roughly 15 percent of its work force in the winter as Trump administration bureaucracy-slashing policies came into effect. 

While some meteorologists have been rehired for critical positions, the decision to slash the DMSP program came on June 25. 

Defense department officials cited a significant “cybersecurity risk” for the cut, and claimed the program will be supplemented by more modern data collection methods. 

The cut-off was delayed from June 30 to July 31 at the request of high-level NASA officials, but is set to go ahead as a permanent change.

Now, former Biden-era NOAA officials have warned that a lack of DMSP data will significantly impact the quality of forecasting at a pivotal time of year for natural disasters. 

Democrats see the move as an intentional effort to hamstring NOAA, which oversees the National Weather Service, to make way for privatization of the forecasting industry. 

For their part, sitting NOAA officials have reassured the public that new satellites, including one launched by the Space Force in April, will fill the gap. 

Roughly 600 out of 4,200 National Weather Service employees were let go in the beginning of the Trump administration, and questions remain about if a fully-staffed [National] Weather Service could have coordinated with local authorities for an earlier response to the deadly flooding in Texas Hill Country.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Jess Fino, Hua Hsieh, Theresa Seiger and Owen Bonertz. Our interview featured editor Alex Moore and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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