This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Aug. 21, 2025.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got deadly flooding in Pakistan, Thailand’s top court ruling on a royal insult case, the Latin America Climate Summit and Trump ending the tariff exemption for small packages. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Deadly Pakistan floods

Interview featuring Awais Ahmad

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the recent floods that have devastated Pakistan. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Awais Ahmad. 

JIMMY: Hello, Awais. 

AWAIS: Hi, Jimmy, thanks for having me. 

JIMMY: I'm glad you're here. Always glad you're here. These floods in Pakistan have been particularly bad and I'm hoping you can get us all caught up on them. So I guess to start, just what's going on?

AWAIS: Yeah, so, the Pakistan monsoon season occurs every year between late June and September, and this year, up until this point, it had been relatively quiet. We hadn't seen any sort of major incidents or events. There was some flooding in Rawalpindi a few weeks ago, and some in Lahore as well, but not at this scale. So last weekend, on Friday, there was a cloudburst that struck the country's northwestern province, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Cloudbursts are these weather phenomena that see warm, moist air rapidly rising in mountainous areas that leads to intense and heavy downpour in a very, very short period of time. I think the figure is around 100 millimeters of rain in an hour. And so they can trigger flash floods and landslides on a devastating scale, and they're notoriously hard to predict. That leads to even more sort of destruction, because people aren't – disaster management officials aren't – able to get people out on time or alert them on time. Since Friday, nearly 400 people have been killed, with more than 200 killed in the Buner district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province alone. This makes up for more than half the total toll from the monsoon season this year alone. So more than half the people that were killed in the monsoon were killed in the past five days. So it's been pretty bad. But I just want to also just say that it's not just Khyber Pakhtunkhwa that's been impacted, we've also seen flooding and landslides in Kashmir and Gilgit, and some urban flooding in other cities across the country as well.

JIMMY: And what's the latest? There been any new developments?

AWAIS: In terms of the latest, I think rescue efforts right now have been the main priority for disaster management in Pakistan. Heavy rains are still forecasted, at least through Thursday, but the monsoon season itself will last through mid September, so we're likely to see continued spells of intense rainfall. And the same conditions also impact the Indian-controlled Jammu and Kashmir across the border. So we see cloudbursts and landslides and flash flooding there as well. And people are still missing. Hundreds of people are still missing. So that's the biggest priority right now in terms of the recovery efforts. And then on Tuesday, and then into Wednesday, we saw a lot of heavy rains in Karachi, which is all the way down south in Sindh province, that killed at least eight people on Tuesday, but I think by Wednesday evening, the toll had risen to 14 people. It also disrupted flight operations. People had been disconnected from the internet, and schools and offices were also closed down on Wednesday. And again, more rains are expected through at least Thursday. So that is something that we're keeping an eye out for.

JIMMY: What kind of reactions to this have you seen?

AWAIS: I've seen a lot of local efforts to raise money for flood relief. There were reports early that there had been no evacuation warnings prior to the cloudburst. Like I said, it's notoriously hard to predict, and the government said that the cloudburst struck too fast, so that the early warning system that is in place did not work. According to local authorities, the shifting weather patterns have been caused by climate change. And Pakistan, this year, has received 50% more rainfall than in the same period last year. The interesting thing about these floods, though, is that multiple international countries have reached out to Pakistan offering assistance, but Pakistan refused it, saying that it has enough or sufficient resources at this time. But I will also say that there's something to say about and – you know, weather experts have commented on this as well – that there's something to say about the discrepancy between how many planet-warming emissions Pakistan is responsible for and how it actually is impacted by climate change. And so I'm seeing a lot of conversation around, at least within Pakistan, a lot of conversation around poor infrastructure and disaster preparedness and urban planning.

JIMMY: Well, considering all this, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

AWAIS: Honestly, more of the same, at least through September, right? So, like I mentioned, we're going to see the monsoon season last through mid-September, and I think authorities have warned of severe weather through at least September 10. More cloudbursts, also. The specific phenomenon has been rare, but we're - we've been seeing it a lot more in the region, and they seem to be doing more and more damage and destruction. We'll also probably see a lot of travel disruptions, both locally and internationally, especially if, you know, major cities with international airports are affected, like Karachi has been this week. There's also more rainfall forecasted for Sindh, where Karachi is, over the next day, and urban flooding is also expected in other major cities of the province. Heavy monsoon rains are also forecast in parts of other provinces, including Balochistan and Punjab, including Islamabad, through at least the end of the week. So we're keeping an eye out for that. But in the long term, we're also going to be looking at a risk of spread for dengue fever and waterborne illnesses, which is the norm post-floods and in the aftermath of such destruction.

JIMMY:Well, Awais we'll pause there for today, but thank you so much for getting us caught up and keeping a close eye on the region for us. Always appreciate it.

AWAIS: Thank you, Jimmy. Thank you for having me.

Thai Supreme Court to rule on former PM Thaksin’s royal defamation case

Information compiled by Vivian Wang

JIMMY: Thailand’s Supreme Court will deliver a ruling tomorrow on former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. He’s accused of the crime of insulting the royal family.

Thaksin’s charges stem from an interview he gave to a South Korean media outlet in 2015. 

It’s a case that could lead to a jail sentence ranging from three to 15 years. 

Of course, this is only one of several consequential rulings in Thailand scheduled for the next few months.

Thaksin is facing another ruling over whether his past prison sentence was carried out properly.

What’s more, the Constitutional Court is due to rule on whether to remove current, but suspended, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from office over a controversial phone call she had with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen. 

Now, Thaksin currently holds no official government role. 

Still, he remains a key figure in Thai politics with his influence over the ruling party and his daughter, the current prime minister. 

These upcoming court rulings could potentially reshape the leadership of the country.

Taiwan referendum on restarting nuclear power plants

Information compiled by Matthew Hipolito

JIMMY: Taiwanese citizens will vote in a referendum Saturday on whether or not to restart a nuclear power plant that was shut down earlier this year. 

The Maanshan plant was shut down in May, bringing an end to four decades of nuclear power generation on the island.

Thailand’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party has had an anti-nuclear power stance since its founding in late 1986. 

That, rooted in a distrust of the Taipower monopoly, cost overruns for nuclear projects, and safety concerns following the Chernobyl explosion. 

And when President Tsai Ing-wen was elected in 2016, she made closing all the country’s nuclear plants one of her key campaign policies.

She vowed to replace the lost generation capacity with renewables during that time. 

Taiwan has seen regular anti-nuclear energy protests that have sometimes grown disruptive, including in 2024, when police used water cannons to disperse demonstrators in Taipei.

Now, for the referendum to pass, more than 25 percent of the electorate must vote in favor, and that number must outnumber the votes against.  

If the referendum passes, the government has promised to begin inspections and evaluations of the plant to restart operations. 

Proponents of the referendum argue that increasing generation capacity is crucial to Taiwan’s independence, both in terms of decreasing resource dependence and strengthening the high-tech economy. 

That, while simultaneously panning the rollout of renewables in the country and saying the shutdown has contributed to Taipower’s unprofitability. 

Opponents say nuclear power is an unsafe option in such a seismically-active region and that there is no viable plan to dispose of waste.

Latin America Climate Summit in Sao Paulo

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: Carbon pricing professionals will gather in Brazil’s Sao Paulo on Tuesday. They’re meeting for a regional climate summit ahead of a key UN climate gathering scheduled for November.

The event is organized by the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) and the International Carbon Action Partnership (ICAP).

They’ll host those working in carbon markets and will focus on areas such as carbon pricing, an issue at the forefront of tackling climate change on an industrial level. 

A second regional summit will be held in North America after this as part of the IETA’s regional series that aims to build momentum in the run up to the UN conference.

Now, Brazil is also set to host this year’s United Nations climate conference, known as COP30. 

Leaders from around the world, as well as industry figures, will gather at November’s summit to discuss climate change and progress made toward meeting goals. 

And as that summit nears, Brazil has issued a last minute plea for countries to submit more ambitious plans to deal with climate change.

Trump suspends duty-free exemption for all foreign packages

Information compiled by Owen Bonertz

JIMMY: Beginning next Friday, all international purchases shipped to the US will be subject to duties and taxes. That, because President Trump revoked the $800 de minimis exemption in an escalation of his administration’s trade war.

Since 2016, all foreign shipments valued under $800 have been exempt from taxation, allowing low-cost Chinese retailers like Shein and Temu to thrive. 

Between 2020 and 2024, the number of exempted parcels entering the US jumped from 636 million, to over 1.3 billion. 

The new tariffs will likely impact consumers with lower incomes the hardest, as data shows that 48 percent of Chinese de minimis packages are shipped to low-income zip codes in the United States. 

The de minimis exemption was already rescinded specifically for goods from China and Hong Kong in May, prompting Chinese ecommerce companies to route their packages through Vietnam and restructure supply chains within the US.

Now, moving forward, all packages entering the US will be required to display their country of origin, and goods will be taxed at that nation’s specific tariff rate. 

The impacts will be felt especially hard for Canadian ecommerce firms, who rely on the US for a majority of business and who will face a 35 percent tariff. 

The new tariffs are also expected to contribute to rising inflation in the US and abroad, after July’s data showed a significant spike.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Vivian Wang, Matthew Hipolito, David Wyllie and Owen Bonertz. Our interview featured editor Awais Ahmad and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe