This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Sept. 4, 2025.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got the earthquake in Afghanistan, Nepal and China holding a military drill, a confidence vote in France, some immigration protections expiring for Hondurans and Nicaraguans in the US, and the UN General Assembly session opening in New York City.

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Afghanistan earthquake

Interview featuring Awais Ahmad

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the devastating earthquake that struck Afghanistan. For more on that I’ve got fellow editor Awais Ahmad.

JIMMY: Hello, Awais. 

AWAIS: Hi, Jimmy. Thanks for having me. 

JIMMY: Glad you're here. Seems like South Asia has had a particularly rough couple of weeks here, and, well, you were here just a couple weeks ago talking about the floods in Pakistan and now we've got this earthquake in Afghanistan. Can you fill us in? What's -- you know, what can you tell us about it?

AWAIS: Yeah, so on Sunday night, late Sunday night, a magnitude 6.0 earthquake struck eastern Afghanistan, close to the border with Pakistan, near a city called Jalalabad. The worst impacted provinces have been Nangarhar and Kunar provinces. The earthquake was also very shallow, with a depth of just five miles, so it caused a lot of destruction. It destroyed over 5,000 homes and then left more than 1,400 people killed and over 3,000 others injured. The region is fairly prone to earthquakes and lots of seismic activity because it is situated at the intersection of the Eurasian and Indian tectonic plates. So we do see a lot of earthquakes here. This one just happened to be particularly destructive and deadly.

JIMMY: And what's the latest? There been any new developments?

AWAIS: Yeah, so as tends to happen with earthquakes, there have been a lot of aftershocks, including a 5.5 on Tuesday. No injuries were reported from the Tuesday aftershock, but it did spook a lot of people so close to a 6.0. As of right now, rescue work remains ongoing, but it has been made difficult for a variety of reasons, right? So you've got poor infrastructure and poor disaster management in the country, which is not really helped by a worsening economy since the Taliban takeover in 202. It's also a fairly mountainous region, so there's a lot of rough terrain and landslides that has been making rescue work a lot more challenging, and each aftershock carries a risk of further rock falls and landslides, creating new challenges. Also, a day before the earthquake, the Nangarhar province was struck by flash floods, and so all of those challenges combined, including the flash floods, have made an already vulnerable area even more dangerous to traverse. So the rescue work is seeing a lot of challenges in that way. Still, however, the Taliban officials have been flying hundreds of helicopters to rescue people from hard to reach areas in Kunar and Nangarhar.

JIMMY: What sort of reactions to the situation have you seen?

AWAIS: Yeah, so there's been a lot of international response and a lot of aid pledges that we've seen. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said that the UN teams are already deployed in the area. India has sent 1,000 tents to Kabul and 15 tons of food to Kunar, with a pledge to dispatch more aid. The European Union has also pledged €1 million, which is about one point $1.16 million, for quake relief, and plans to send 130 tons of emergency supplies. The UK will also be sending £1 million for aid. United Arab Emirates and Pakistan have also dispatched relief goods, and others, including China and Iran, have also offered to send support and medical supplies. So there's been a lot, a lot of international support that we've seen.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next then?

AWAIS: Yeah, like I mentioned, rescue work is ongoing, even though it's been made difficult for a variety of reasons. So we might see a jump in toll as people get to areas that have been hard to reach and actually rescue people from the rubble. Again, rough terrain, landslides, and flash floods are all making that very difficult, and aftershocks are continuing. But it's also really interesting to see such [a] large international response for a country that the world more or less kind of turned away from since the Taliban takeover. So it would be interesting to see, personally, for me, how the Taliban might use this as an opportunity to do some repair work in terms of diplomatic ties and stuff. I think that could be interesting to watch.

JIMMY: Definitely. Well, Awais, we'll have to pause there for today, but as always, thank you for keeping an eye on the region for us and for getting us up to speed. Appreciate it.

AWAIS: Thanks, Jimmy.

Nepal-China joint military drill to kick off

Information compiled by Vivian Wang

JIMMY: Joint military exercises between Nepal and China will begin in Nepal on Saturday.

They’ll continue for 10 days, with a focus on counterterrorism and disaster management.

Nepal and China began holding annual joint military drills in 2017, though they were suspended temporarily during the coronavirus pandemic.

Nepal regularly conducts exercises with not only China, but also India and the US. Nepal’s defense ministry spokesperson said the drills “are not targeted at any particular country.”

Now, while the exercise will likely go off without a hitch, Nepal remains in a precarious position, according to analysts. It’s a country physically surrounded by superpowers India and China, and with the US often interested in countering China’s presence in the region. 

According to local media reports, around 150 personnel will participate in this exercise, though an exact location has not been disclosed.

French confidence vote

Information compiled by Jess Fino

JIMMY: France’s parliament will hold a confidence vote on Prime Minister François Bayrou’s government on Monday. 

Bayrou surprised everyone when he announced that he’d ask parliament to hold a vote of confidence amid the ongoing deadlock over planned budget cuts.

Those cuts include about $51 billion dollars worth of spending cuts and tax increases. 

President Emannuel Macron said the prime minister has his "full support" and asked all political parties "to act responsibly."

Now, the decision has driven France once again into a political crisis, with many fearing the country is heading to yet another snap election. 

Opposition parties have already suggested they will not approve the austerity budget, with the far-right National Rally even saying it’s ready to lead with a relative majority if the country goes for fresh elections. 

Bayrou has spent the last days trying to gain support, while warning the “fate of France” is at stake in the vote. 

France is bracing for potential nationwide strikes and demonstrations on Wednesday.

This instability also comes at the time when the country is bracing for new labor strikes on Sept. 18, during which members of eight trade unions are expected to take part.

DHS temporary status for Honduras and Nicaragua set to expire

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: Legal immigration protections for some Hondurans and Nicaraguans in the United States will expire on Monday.

That, after a federal appeals court sided with the Trump administration in its efforts to expand those eligible for deportation by removing Department of Homeland Security legal protected status for more than 50,000 migrants from Honduras and Nicaragua. 

Trump had initially moved to remove temporary protected status for Hondurans during his first term in 2018, though the Biden administration reinstated the order.

Now, temporary protected status for both nationalities were initially granted in the late-90s after Hurricane Mitch decimated Central America, killing more than 10,000 people. 

This means that many of those set to become eligible for deportation have lived in the US for more than 25 years. 

The Trump administration has sought to remove temporary protected status for numerous nationalities, including hundreds of thousands from Ukraine, Haiti and Venezuela, as part of its aggressive crackdown on immigration across the board.

UN General Assembly opens in New York City

Information compiled by Irene Villora

JIMMY: The United Nations General Assembly will open its 80th session on Tuesday at its New York City headquarters.

The session will last one year and will be chaired by President-elect Annalena Baerbock, Germany’s federal minister for foreign affairs. She’s also the first woman of the Western European group to hold the post. 

The 80th session will run under the theme “Better Together: 80 years and more for peace, development and human rights.” 

Baerbock expressed the priorities for her presidency are making the organization more effective, advancing the 2030 agenda for sustainable development and making the assembly a more inclusive forum. 

Now the start of the new session takes place amid an ongoing deadlock at the UN Security Council over measures to end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. The latter will be marked by an effort led by France, which includes Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom and Belgium, to recognize Palestine as a state. 

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and 80 other Palestinian officials have been denied visas to attend the session by the U.S. government. 

The Assembly opening will be followed by a high-level week between Sept. 22 and 26, where global leaders will hold sessions and sidelines meetings. 

The general debate will take place between Sept. 23 and 27 and on Sept. 29.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Vivian Wang, Jess Fino, Alex Moore and Irene Villora. Our interview featured editor Awais Ahmad and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe