This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Sept. 11, 2025.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got Israel’s strike in Qatar, elections in Syria and Malawi, Trump’s visit to the U.K and a labor strike in France. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Israeli strikes in Qatar

Interview featuring Ahmed Namatalla

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at Israel’s recent strike in Qatar. For more on that I’ve got the lead for our Middle East coverage, Ahmed Namatalla.

JIMMY: Hello, Ahmed. 

AHMED: Hi Jimmy.

JIMMY: Well, Ahmed, I guess let's just dive right into this thing. There was a pretty notable strike in Qatar this week. Can you give us a bit of a recap on you know what went down? 

AHMED: Yes. Well, on Tuesday, Israel bombed Qatar. Qatar is a U.S. ally and host of the biggest U.S. military base in the Middle East. And despite those facts – oh, one more fact is that Qatar is the main negotiator between Israel and Hamas, and at the time of the bombing Palestinian militant group Hamas was discussing a US proposal to end the war in Gaza – and despite all these facts, Israel went ahead and bombed the residential compound where Hamas is located, very close to the center of the capital Doha. Five people were killed that are affiliated with Hamas, in addition to at least one Qatari security personnel. None of the people killed were those targeted by Israel, senior leadership of Hamas, which, by the way, is not involved in the fighting on the ground, they are on the political side of the group. So yes, it's consistent with Israeli actions in the past. And while unprecedented, it's not really surprising to people that have been following events in the region.

JIMMY: What about the latest? There been any new developments since it happened? 

AHMED: Qatar does not have a major military force. And in fact, part of the reasoning for having, you know, domestically, for having a US military force on the ground, is to protect that country. And in this case, that didn't prove to be the case. The government of Qatar has said that it was going to take all necessary steps to deter these kinds of actions in the future, but it's unclear what it really can do, besides from asking the U.S. to intervene. The U.S. has, through President Trump, vowed that this kind of thing would not happen on its soil again. But again, if that was the case, then it wouldn't have happened to begin with. Arab countries have largely stuck to their pattern of issuing statements of condemnation – pretty standard stuff, but nothing really that rises to the magnitude of how unprecedented this attack was.

JIMMY: Well, like you said, it is unprecedented in some ways. What are some of the other reactions that you have seen to this?

AHMED: So it's interesting to gage the internal Israeli reaction, because first of all, Israel's government, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, has not taken one step back, and in fact, today, chose to double down on the attack, saying that it's ready to pursue its enemies anywhere they may be located, signaling that it would do it again. And since there is no indication that any of Hamas senior political leadership was actually killed in this attack, it is quite possible that this attack would happen again, whether in Qatar or elsewhere. This was echoed by the Israeli military's chief of staff. And we saw a pretty significant Israeli attack in Yemen today, again claiming to go after Israeli enemies. Israel's government described the attack on Sanaa that killed at least 35 people as retaliation for an earlier attack by the Yemeni militant group, the Houthis, that targeted Israel's Ramon Airport. It's worth noting that none of Yemen's missile attacks have had any real impact on the ground. These missiles have a long way to travel. They're relatively low tech, and most of the time, they get shot before even entering Israeli airspace. And so if anything, we've seen Israel continue to move forward with its strategy in the absence of any real deterrent or balancing military force in the region.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that's happened, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next then? 

AHMED: What we really need to be watching out for is more offensive actions from Israel, which continues to be fully backed by the U.S. This can happen anywhere. And Israeli media, right-wing Israeli media, and some Arab media today are already talking about the next target, because really, the attack on Qatar leaves a pretty clear message in that – that was really actually stated by President Trump's envoy in the region, Mr. Witkoff, last week, when he said that Israel will go anywhere, anytime, and there's nothing anyone can do to stop that. And so this can include Turkey, a NATO member, and U.S. ally, where – that has been opposed to Israeli actions in Palestinian Territories, and where Islamists from around the region have been known to find safety. This can even include Egypt, which, despite its antagonistic relationship with Islamists, has played a role in mediation and continues to host family members from Palestinian militant groups like Hamas. We have seen in the past the Israeli military clearly state that any threat that they perceive anywhere is fair game, and we've seen right-wing members of the current government specifically raise concerns about the size of Egypt's army. And so in light of this recent attack, anything can happen.

JIMMY: Well, Ahmed, we'll pause there for today, but as usual, thanks so much for your time and for keeping an eye on the war for us. I'm sure we'll have you back, and until then, I appreciate it. 

AHMED: Thanks, Jimmy.

Syria parliamentary elections

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: The makeup of Syria’s first post-Assad parliament will be chosen over five days starting Monday. That, as the country’s leadership attempts to remake state institutions and distance them from decades of dictatorship. 

In this indirect system, committees will select 140 of the 210 representatives in the People’s Assembly of Syria, using a province-based electoral college system. 

The remaining 70 seats will be appointed by the country’s president. 

These are the first elections to be held since the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024 and the establishment of a transitional government led by President Ahmad al-Sharaa.

Now, although Syria’s public will not be able to vote in this election, the makeup of the assembly will be watched closely by regional capitals and beyond. 

Syria is seeking to normalize its relationship with key players in the region as it attempts to rebuild, and has promised a return to democracy, but not in the short term, with it potentially taking years.

Malawi general election

Information compiled by Agnese Boffano

JIMMY: Malawi will hold a general election on Tuesday. They’ll elect a president, parliamentary members and hundreds of local government councillors.

The previous round of general elections was held in May 2019, during which then-incumbent President Peter Mutharika of the central Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was re-elected. 

But in February of the following year, Malawi’s Constitutional Court annulled the election results amid widespread allegations of irregularities. It ordered a re-run for the presidential vote. 

Malawi’s government chose to implement a new system whereby a presidential candidate needs to receive more than 50 percent of the total votes in the first round in order to win the presidency. 

Lazarus Chakwera of the center-right Malawi Congress Party (MCP) was elected president after receiving 59 percent of the votes.

Now, for this election, although there are 17 candidates running for the presidency, current President Chakwera and former President Mutharika are set to face each other at the polls. 

Analysts predict that neither candidate is likely to reach an outright majority in the first round, meaning that a second round of elections is likely to take place. 

If that happens, the MCP and DPP parties will need to form tactical coalitions with other smaller parties in order to secure a majority. 

The economy and corruption appear to be among the two most important issues for Malawian voters.

Voters will also be looking to see if the electoral commission is able to maintain a transparent and independent election.

Trump's second U.K. state visit

Information compiled by Jeff Landset

JIMMY: U.S. President Donald Trump will be in the United Kingdom starting Wednesday for an unprecedented second state visit. The visit comes, of course, during tensions over tariffs.

As you may recall, Queen Elizabeth II hosted President Trump and the First Lady in 2019 during Trump’s first term. 

That trip led to large protests in London – thousands gathered in Trafalgar Square with a speech from Jeremy Corbyn, the then-leader of the Labour Party, and a large blimp of Trump as a baby. 

Trump, however, was kept away from many of those protesters, thanks to widespread road closures. 

In February, Prime Minister Keir Starmer gave Trump a letter from King Charles III inviting him for another state visit, which has never been done for a U.S. president.

Now, this state visit will be held at Windsor Castle as Buckingham Palace is undergoing renovations. 

The visit will also come with a major security operation at the same time. 

The area will be a no-fly zone, except for police helicopters and dozens of security drones which will monitor protesters, which many expect to be bigger this time around. 

Trump is expected to bring several tech CEOs to the state banquet, including Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, OpenAI’s Sam Altman and possibly Apple’s Tim Cook. That, giving credence to the thought that the state visit is a tactic to get a trade deal done.

French Labour Trade Union chief announces nationwide strike action over budget draft

Information compiled by Owen Bonertz

JIMMY: Some of France’s largest trade unions have committed to a nationwide strike action next Thursday. 

It comes on the heels of the more decentralized “Block Everything” demonstrations we saw just yesterday.

Former French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou angered organized labor with his budget proposal this summer. 

That framework would raise taxes, cut spending and scrap two public holidays. 

A coalition of the country’s biggest labor unions, including the General Confederation of Labour, the French Democratic Confederation of Labour and the National Union of Autonomous Trade Unions announced a widespread strike action set for Sep. 18, impacting airports, train service and hospitals. 

Now, backlash on Bayrou’s budget proposal ultimately pushed the centrist to call a vote of confidence for his government. 

The vote failed earlier this week, causing the collapse of the government and Macron’s appointment of Sebastian Lecornu as prime minister. 

France’s unions have yet to clarify if the reshuffling of the National Assembly will impact their plans for next Thursday, but impacts to the public transport, particularly in Paris, are expected to begin well before then. 

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors David Wyllie, Agnese Boffano, Jeff Landset and Owen Bonertz. Our interview featured editor Ahmed Namatalla and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe