This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Sept. 18, 2025

In this week’s forecast we’ve got protests in East Timor, a referendum in Guinea, a Charlie Kirk memorial service in Arizona, security updates at airports in India and the UN General Assembly. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

East Timor protests

Interview featuring Awais Ahmad

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll look at the recent protests in the Southeast Asian nation of East Timor. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Awais Ahmad. 

JIMMY: Hello, Awais. 

AWAIS: Hi, Jimmy, thanks for having me. 

JIMMY: I'm glad you're here. We don't – we don't often see big news coming out of East Timor, but we certainly have this week. What can you tell us about these protests? Can you give us a bit of a recap on what's happened?

AWAIS: Yeah, of course. So like you mentioned, East Timor is a Southeast Asian country. It's near Indonesia, used to be part of Indonesia, but then it got its independence in 2002. So this week, we saw thousands of people gather in the capital of Dili. There were more than 1,000 students, mostly students, on Monday. They were protesting a government plan to buy luxury cars for its 65 parliamentarians. This plan would cost an estimated $3 million in a country where more than 40% of the population lives in poverty, according to the World Bank. The protests on Monday got fairly violent with police, you know, using rubber bullets and tear gas to disperse the protests, which triggered clashes. Protesters were throwing rocks at the riot police, and the protests then continued into the next day, with more than 2,000 people showing up. There was a protester that told AFP that there were rumors that the cars were already on their way, which is why a lot of people gathered again on Tuesday. Yeah, so just to give a bit of context, lawmakers in East Timor have an annual basic salary of around $36,000 as of 2023. That's more than 10 times the country's average income, which a government report in 2021 estimated to be around $3,000. So yeah, there were – there was just a lot of anger and backlash built up over the purchase of these luxury vehicles, which was a [Toyota] Prado SUV, that triggered these protests on Monday and Tuesday.

JIMMY: And what's the latest? There been any new developments?

AWAIS: Yeah, so the latest development right now is that the government has actually called off this plan to purchase the vehicles, and they've also scrapped the parliamentarian pension too. Under a 2006 law, former members of parliament get a pension equivalent to their salary. So they're now putting together a bill to annul that, and they've canceled the purchase of the vehicles.

JIMMY: Well, what kind of reactions to the process have you seen so far?

AWAIS: So I didn't see a ton of international reactions, per se, but like I mentioned, the political parties did come together to scrap the plan in the aftermath of the protest, and an opposition party even praised the students for protesting. And the President said that while protests are valid and people have a right to protest, violence would not be tolerated. And so nationally, we saw some reactions, but there wasn't too much noise that was generated internationally.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next then?

AWAIS: Yeah, so there seems to be a cascading effect that we've experienced. We saw similar protests in Indonesia and in Nepal, in recent weeks. They were also youth-led in Nepal; dozens of people were killed. And in Indonesia, also, these protests escalated sharply after a motorcycle rider was killed by a police vehicle. So we've seen very similar instances happen in other Asian countries. And while these specific protests in East Timor have stopped for now, the material conditions on the ground have not changed. You know, 40% of the country is still under poverty, and East Timor is, actually, has the youngest population of all Southeast Asian countries. More than 70% of its population is under the age of 35, so you can see these people are really, really invested in their futures. They're invested in getting accountability from their politicians that, for years, these frustrations that have built up over government excess and political privilege while the rest of these countries live in pretty dire situations. We've seen this sort of spread across Asia in recent weeks. We might see more of the same in different countries. And like I said, the material conditions have not changed, so that anger at corruption, inequality still exists, within East Timor as well.

JIMMY: Well, Awais, we'll pause there for today, but thank you so much for your time and for getting us caught up on East Timor. Appreciate it. 

AWAIS: Of course. Thanks for having me.

Guinea's Junta holds referendum on constitution

Information compiled by Agnese Boffano

JIMMY: A referendum on Guinea’s constitution will take place on Sunday. 

It’ll be the first time that’s happened since the junta took power.

As you may recall, there was a military coup in Guinea in Sept. 2021 when then-President Alpha Condé was overthrown by army commander Mamady Doumbouya. 

Doumbouya was then sworn in as president on Oct. 1 the same year, promising a return to civilian rule and to hold elections, without specifying a particular date.

Now, analysts believe the constitutional referendum serves as a means for the military junta to cement their power and move away from a democratic, civil rule. 

Doumbouya released a draft constitution in June this year, which was highly criticized by the opposition, particularly over the clauses aimed at increasing the presidential term from five to seven years, as well as allowing him to run for election. 

The junta has banned protests from taking place in the country and has responded violently to them in the past. 

Critics argue this is only one of the many aspects in which the West African country of 14.8 million people is moving further away from a democratic process.

Service for Charlie Kirk at State Farm Stadium

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: A memorial service for assassinated conservative media figure Charlie Kirk will be held at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., on Sunday.

President Donald Trump and a number of other notable conservatives are expected to be in attendance.

Kirk was shot and killed while on stage at an event on the campus of Utah Valley University. 

Suspect Tyler Robinson, a resident of Washington, Utah, was arrested after reportedly being turned in by his father and a family friend. 

FBI Director Kash Patel said DNA matching Robinson had been found near the scene, following an embarrassing series of arrests and releases amid confusion over the suspect in the hours after the shooting. 

Following an outpouring of grief, a memorial was organized in Glendale at the stadium that normally seats more than 63,000 people.

Now, security would have been tight given the nature of the event that is open to the public, but now involves the Secret Service and other agencies following the confirmation that Trump will be attending the memorial, likely with other members of the Cabinet including Secretary of State Marco Rubio. 

The event, likely to eulogize Kirk, may act as a signpost for future actions of the Trump administration, previewed by Vice President JD Vance’s comments about dismantling “far-left” groups during his recent guest hosting of Kirk’s podcast.

Indian airports to enhance security measures

Information compiled by Hua Hsieh

JIMMY: Indian airports are expected to enhance security measures starting Monday.

The civil aviation authority has urged vigilance over a “high probability” of attack over an 11-day period.

The bureau issued an advisory last month urging close cooperation of airlines, airport authorities, and law enforcement to tighten surveillance over threats from “anti-social elements.” 

While details regarding the threat were not made clear in the warning, local media has reported that the threat came from a militant group with alleged connections to Pakistan. 

Indian airports are no stranger to security threats, as more than 500 bomb threats were reported within the month of October last year. 

While all of them proved to be hoaxes, the wave of threats caused significant delays and diversions on hundreds of domestic and international routes.

Now, airlines, police and airport authorities are expected to carry out strict ID checks, increased patrols and monitoring of video surveillance systems. 

There will also be enhanced screening of mail and cargo, as suggested by the civil aviation authority. 

All of this, of course, could lead to longer wait times, disruptions of operations at the airport and potential delays in flights.

UN General Assembly

Information compiled by Owen Bonertz

JIMMY: This year’s UN General Assembly is starting Monday in New York City. 

It will feature several major western nations officially recognizing the state of Palestine.

Over the summer, France, Australia, the UK and Canada all agreed to officially recognize an independent Palestinian state, headed by the Palestinian authority, beginning at this year’s General Assembly. 

France and Saudi Arabia will also host a large summit Monday concerning a two-state solution. 

US President Donald Trump will also speak at the General Assembly for the first time since his election in Nov. 2024. 

His administration has increasingly distanced the US from the United Nations, including a full withdrawal from the The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, also known as UNESCO.

Now, the US has traditionally been the UN’s largest financial backer, and funding cuts are likely to result in the elimination of over 2,000 jobs for 2026. 

At the same time, China has been attempting to assert greater control over the institution by leveraging their large cash transfers. 

On the topic of Gaza, any additional countries that choose to bilaterally recognize Palestine will be limited in their actions by the US veto on the Security Council, which will prevent any sort of Palestinian state voting in UN resolutions. 

Finally, Trump has repeatedly affirmed his commitment to Israel, and is planning to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu after his speech in Washington on Sept. 29.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Agnese Boffano, David Wyllie, Hua Hsieh, and Owen Bonertz. Our interview featured editor Awais Ahmad and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe