
Factal Forecast
Factal Forecast takes a look at the biggest news stories coming in the next week and why they matter. From the editors at Factal, we publish our forward-looking podcast each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Factal Forecast
Drone crisis threatens NATO airspace
Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Alex Moore discuss Russian drones in NATO airspace, plus more on a political rally in Pakistan, an election in Moldova, a government funding deadline in the U.S. and the start of Christmas in Venezuela.
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This episode includes work from Factal editors Alex Moore, Awais Ahmad, Hua Hsieh, Joe Veyera and Irene Villora. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
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Copyright © 2025 Factal. All rights reserved.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:
Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.
Today is Sept. 25, 2025.
In this week’s forecast we’ve got Russian drones in NATO airspace, a political rally in Pakistan, an election in Moldova, a government funding deadline in the U.S. and the start of Christmas in Venezuela.
You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.
Russian drones in NATO airspace
Interview featuring Alex Moore
JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the reports this month of Russian drones in NATO airspace. For more on that I’ve got the lead for our Europe coverage, Alex Moore.
JIMMY: Hello, Alex.
ALEX: Hello, Jimmy.
JIMMY: So glad you're here today. This story about drones was, well, kind of surprising, to be honest, despite the spot we're at here in the war. I’m hoping you can get us caught up on it, though. Can you give us a recap on what went down?
ALEX: Yes, September has been the most active month since the full Ukraine invasion, almost four years ago now at this point. I guess three and a half is more apt. But yeah, it was the most active month of Russian jets and projectiles penetrating NATO airspace. The most notable incident occurred a couple weeks ago, Sept. 10 I believe. There were 19 Russian drones and also one suspected cruise missile that penetrated Polish airspace during a large barrage taking place targeting Ukraine. The drone incursion was the most significant one we've seen yet into NATO airspace since the invasion. [It] led to the closure of four airports, including Warsaw's main hub in Poland, and for the first time since the full invasion, there was sort of a direct contact or conflict, however you want to frame it, between NATO and Russia, because a few NATO jets were scrambled and actually downed at least three Russian drones over Polish airspace. So that was the most notable one. It's worth noting there have been projectiles from Russia that have entered Poland in the past. Obviously, Russia has launched upwards of nearly four dozen thousand cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, drones, into Ukraine, including areas very close to the Polish border throughout the war. But this is the first time we've seen this large of a number enter Polish airspace. It is unclear, and we’ll likely never know, if this was on purpose. Obviously, NATO and the Polish side and the Ukrainian side have accused Russia of purposely doing it. Russia denied this. It is, of course, impossible to tell, but like I said, it's worth noting that there have been, you know, 35,000 Iranian drones fired into Ukraine from Russia, as well as thousands of additional cruise missiles throughout the war, and we've never seen the airspace penetrated to this extent. There have been a couple other events as well. A couple of days later, this past weekend, a few Russian MIG jets entered Estonian airspace for a few minutes before being chased off after NATO scrambled jets. There was also a drone that entered Romanian airspace a few weeks back as well. Also worth noting they're not the first time there have been Russian drones that have crashed into Romanian land and airspace in the past before. The Romanian border along the Danube River is very close to a couple of Ukrainian grain hubs there, in Izmail and Reni in the Odessa region, that have been heavily struck. So not unprecedented there. And lastly, this is not explicitly connected to Russia, but the other day, of course, Oslo and Copenhagen’s airports were closed due to some drone incursions. These were dubbed and described as, you know, professional large drones, so not like a little, you know, quad copter that you could procure easily. While authorities have yet to sort of explicitly connect it with Russia in their statements, they are alluding to it.
JIMMY: Well, what about the latest? There been anything new developing?
ALEX: Yeah, the latest is the most recent incident involving Oslo and Copenhagen. Like I said, they have not explicitly accused Russia outright, although Russia did come out and deny their involvement. But interestingly, in the statements made by Denmark's prime minister and NATO officials and EU Commission officials, they are – they're sort of looping in the spate of Russian drone incursions earlier this month with the latest incidents with the airports. So while they're not explicitly coming out and saying it, and I, you know, surmise it'll be pretty difficult to prove, they are drawing the two together. And this sort of dovetails with a new NATO airspace initiative they're calling Eastern Sentry, where they're, you know, flying more manned sorties in a defensive capacity over the eastern flanks in the Baltics and Poland in the wake of the shooting down to the Russian drones that entered Polish airspace a few weeks back.
JIMMY: What about reactions to this? Have you seen any notable ones there?
ALEX: Yeah, I mean, like I said, NATO's reaction with the Eastern Sentry initiative is certainly notable. They are expressing – they being NATO – are expressing much more willingness to actively shoot down Russian projectiles that enter NATO airspace. As I mentioned, Sept. 10 was the first time that's happened, despite the fact that Russian projectiles have entered NATO airspace in the past in more limited capacities. It's also worth noting, obviously not a NATO member, but Moldova's airspace has also been repeatedly violated throughout the war by Russian cruise missiles that are utilizing Moldovan airspace to strike targets in areas like Ivano-Frankivsk in western Ukraine, which geographically are close to the Moldovan border. And obviously Moldova is closely allied with Romania. So despite the fact that Moldova is not an outright NATO member, it's worth mentioning that. So, there is increased appetite for, you know, NATO aircraft downing Russian projectiles in the airspace, you know, which logically could potentially lead to mission creep of preemptively shooting down projectiles very close to NATO airspace, and that could potentially include areas like Lviv. This is just me engaging in conjecture. This has not been discussed, but sort of the natural evolution of this conflict, if you frame it as Russia does, being between Russia and NATO, has been sort of this natural, soft and slow, steady escalation on both sides, seeing what they can and can't get away with. So logically, if they are downing Russian projectiles over NATO airspace, that could, you know, potentially down the line lead to them downing Russian projectiles heading toward NATO airspace, which maybe could include a place like, you know, Rivne. Yeah, but the latter point, obviously, is just me engaging in future conjecture.
JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?
ALEX: Yeah, you know, obviously, what made the latest Polish drone incursion unique was the, I mentioned earlier, the fact that numerically it was quite large, but also a few of the drones strayed quite far into Polish airspace. You know, I think, as I mentioned earlier, they have fired so many dozens of thousands of projectiles into – deep into Ukrainian territory – you know, in western Ukraine, 1,500 kilometers from the front lines. This has happened for three and a half years, and we have not seen any incursion in the NATO airspace anywhere near this size in one go. So if it were to happen again, that, to me, would signify, you know, this is likely Russia testing the bounds of what they can get away with and engaging NATO alliance resolve, potentially testing the public of NATO countries to see their appetite to actually engage in this, you know, what one could describe as mission creep, by beginning these air sorties to shoot down Russian projectiles. So any continuance of this trend would be very noteworthy. If we do see more drones of the smaller variety, like the ones in Copenhagen and Oslo closing airports, that would be very notable and, you know, could be some semblance of hybrid warfare that Russia is engaging in. Obviously, like I said, this is not something that has been tangibly connected to Russia but again, further incidents taking place would, of course, be noteworthy. Yeah, and lastly, to conclude, yesterday, Trump actually gave an interesting quote. The quote was with Zelenskyy, where Trump himself actually, you know, advertised an express willingness to engage U.S. aircraft alongside NATO aircraft in shooting down these projectiles. I think that even took Zelenskyy off guard. I mean, Zelenskyy himself looked quite surprised to hear that. So Trump's increased appetite, going along with NATO's apparent increased appetite, it's very noteworthy. He also made a Truth Social post, not specifically, per se, about drone incursions, but just broader about the war in general and the state of the Russian economy, kind of advertising, you know, outwardly – it's difficult to tell if this was just posturing or if it, you know, signified a direct policy change, because Trump can be a bit, you know, mercurial in that regard, but you know – expressing desire and support to support Ukraine pushing back to their 1991 borders, if not even further, which would, of course, include potential operations to retake Crimea even. So interesting sea change, of course, in NATO and specifically Trump's posture vis a vis Russia.
JIMMY: Well, Alex, we'll pause there for today, but as usual, thanks so much for keeping an eye on Europe for us and getting us up to speed.
ALEX: Cheers, Jimmy
NOTE – Shortly after the recording of this interview, we began seeing new reports of drone activity disrupting air traffic in Denmark. Authorities promptly closed the airspace over Aalborg Airport. More on the situation can be found on Danish language television news channel TV 2 News’ blog.
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf rally in Peshawar
Information compiled by Awais Ahmad
JIMMY: Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has called on supporters of his PTI party to rally in Peshawar on Saturday.
He’s said to have framed the rally as a stand “for the nation’s freedom.”
Senior PTI leadership in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province has described the rally as a key moment in the push to secure Khan’s release.
As you may recall, he’s been imprisoned for more than two years and his detention has sparked nationwide protests and unrest
Since his ousting in 2022, Khan has faced numerous court cases, including allegations of corruption, selling state gifts and inciting violence, with combined sentences totaling over 14 years.
Now, while senior PTI figures claim the rally could be the largest in the province’s history, no official estimates for attendance have been released.
Past demonstrations have led to unrest, but with PTI in control of the provincial government, state suppression is considered unlikely.
Still, security concerns remain due to an increase in militant activity in the region in recent years.
Moldovan parliamentary elections
Information compiled by Hua Hsieh
JIMMY: Moldovans will vote for members of its legislature on Sunday.
The result of which many see as having a significant impact on the country’s bid to join the European Union.
While the ruling pro-Western PAS party is hoping to retain its majority in the 101-seat parliament, a recent poll suggested that the party would likely be forced to form an alliance with smaller groups.
That’s because the poll puts a new coalition consisting of pro-Russian opposition parties known as the Patriotic Bloc in the lead.
In the wake of Russia’s invasion into Ukraine, Moldova applied to join the EU and was granted candidate status in 2022.
The PAS sees membership of the EU as critical to the country’s future and countering increased Russian attempts to destabilize the country.
Those attempts include causing an energy crisis and fueling anti-government sentiment.
Moldova’s President Maia Sandu accused Moscow of spending some $178 million trying to meddle with the upcoming elections.
That, after police carried out 250 raids in an investigation into plans of mass riots allegedly linked to Russian intelligence service.
Still, Russia has consistently denied accusations of interfering in Moldova’s domestic affairs.
Now, politicians and analysts have described the vote as one of the most consequential in Moldava’s history.
If the PAS is able to hang onto power, Moldova is likely to continue its efforts to acquire EU membership, whereas if the pro-Russian bloc wins the election, the EU bid would likely face a prolonged political struggle.
U.S. government funding deadline
Information compiled by Joe Veyera
JIMMY: A U.S. government shutdown is set to begin at 12:01 a.m. ET Wednesday if a deal is not reached on a new short-term spending bill.
Congress last passed a continuing resolution in March, with some Senate Democrats voting to advance the bill to allow its final passage along party-lines and avert a shutdown.
With a deadline looming once more, the two sides appear far apart on several key issues, as Republicans seek a seven-week "clean" spending bill, while Democrats want an extension on health-care subsidies set to expire at year's end.
President Donald Trump has also shown little interest in meeting Democratic demands, scrapping a planned meeting with party leaders.
He called their demands "unserious and ridiculous" to the point it "could [not] possibly be productive."
Now, the Trump administration has yet to publicly release contingency plans in the event of a shutdown, leaving federal workers in the lurch on whether there have been changes to what services the government deems "essential."
The last full government shutdown came in December of 2018, when an impasse over border wall funding prompted a 35-day standoff.
Christmas begins in Venezuela
Information compiled by Irene Villora
JIMMY: Christmas season will officially begin in Venezuela on Wednesday.
President Nicolas Maduro announced during his weekly radio show this month that the Christmas season in Venezuela will begin on Oct. 1.
The decree takes place for the second consecutive year with the country’s leader citing benefits to the economy and “the right to joy” for Venezuelans.
The festive period will begin amid heightened tensions in the southern Caribbean Sea after the deployment of U.S. warships and at least three deadly strikes on alleged Venezuelan narco-vessels ordered by the Trump administration.
Now, Venezuela has increased military presence on its coasts amid a significant push to encourage volunteer civilians to join its army-supporting militias.
Maduro has qualified the United States’ recent moves as an act of aggression and as an attempt to influence a change of regime in the country.
The Venezuelan government hopes another early Christmas will improve its popularity rates as the population grapples with hyperinflation and struggles to cover food and other basic needs.
JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.
Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Awais Ahmad, Hua Hsieh, Joe Veyera and Irene Villora. Our interview featured editor Alex Moore and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com
This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed.
Copyright © 2025 Factal. All rights reserved.
Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe