This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Oct. 2, 2025.                                                                                                                                           

In this week’s forecast we’ve got the troops deploying in Portland, Ore., a rail strike in Italy, a party leadership election in Japan, parliamentary elections in Syria and an air controllers strike in France. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Federal troop deployment to Portland, Ore.

Interview featuring Joe Veyera

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll look at the deployment of federal troops to Portland. For more on that I’ve got the lead for our North America coverage, Joe Veyera. 

JIMMY: Hello, Joe, 

JOE: Hey, Jimmy. How's it going? 

JIMMY: It goes well. Always love it when you're here. But, I know we've only got about 10 minutes here, so let's just jump right into this. Federal troops in Portland. That's a hell of a sentence. And you know, what can you tell us about it? What's happened so far?

JOE: Yeah, so let's go back to Saturday morning when the president posted on Truth Social that he had directed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to provide all necessary troops to protect what he called “war-ravaged Portland” and any of our ICE facilities under siege from attack by Antifa and other domestic terrorists. He went on in that post to say he's, “authorizing Full Force if necessary,” but he didn't really get into what full force meant. So that's one thing to watch for. A memo later released by Hegseth called for the federalization and deployment of approximately 200 Oregon National Guard troops. And this also raises the question, what's the impetus here? Portland is one of the cities that the president has talked about at length on crime and lawlessness, despite the city seeing a 51% drop in homicides in the first half of this year. What we've also seen is nightly protests over the summer outside of the city's ICE facility in South Portland, and that's occasionally led to clashes. Police said there were two arrests Sunday night and then nothing on Monday.

JIMMY: And what's the response been like so far? 

JOE: Generally, local officials have called the looming deployment unnecessary, and Oregon's Attorney General has filed a preliminary injunction and sought a temporary restraining order on the deployment, saying there's no legal basis for the federalization of troops. As far as the constitutionality goes on the president's part, the administration has cited title 10 of the US Code on Armed Services with all of their deployments. And this allows for federal troop deployments in the event of rebellion, invasion, or when the president is otherwise unable to, quote, "execute the laws of the United States." They are prohibited from engaging in law enforcement action by the Posse Comitatus Act, and a federal judge ruled last month that the Trump administration violated that act during the deployment to Los Angeles over the summer.

JIMMY: Well, what's the latest then? What else should we be watching for?

JOE: So as of Wednesday afternoon, we haven't seen any troops on the streets, and National Guard officials have said it would be unlikely before Thursday at the earliest. A hearing is scheduled for Friday at 10 am on the temporary restraining order request from Oregon. But let's assume for a second that the troops are rolled out to the city. What does that look like? Chances are it probably resembles the rollout we've seen in Washington, DC, where there's not a ton of law enforcement assistance necessarily, but it's more patrolling federal buildings, doing park cleanup, things like that. So if we do see troops on the ground, that's likely more in line of what we're going to see. And then the one remaining question is, where could troops go next? 

JIMMY: Well, then that's my question for you. Where's next? Is Trump stopping with Portland?

JOE: I would doubt it. So there are a couple of main cities I think we're going to be watching more closely for the next potential deployment. Illinois Governor JB Pritzker said on Monday that the Department of Homeland Security is seeking the deployment of 100 military troops, quote, “for the protection of ice personnel and facilities,” and that move would come on the heels of Operation Midway Blitz that was announced by ICE last month to conduct immigration raids and arrests across the Chicago area. You may remember Trump saying, quote, “Chicago is a hellhole right now” in his comments on the city. Trump has also floated St Louis, Oakland and Baltimore in recent weeks as potential deployment opportunities, and he's also mentioned New Orleans. And in New Orleans, you have Republican Gov. Jeff Landry requesting to activate up to 1,000 Louisiana National Guard personnel earlier this week, citing violent crime rates in that city, Baton Rouge and in Shreveport. So I'd say Chicago and New Orleans are probably the next two we're looking at.

JIMMY: Well, Joe, we'll pause there for today, but you know I doubt heavily that this will be the last time we talk about the situation. But until then, thank you so much for your time and for keeping an eye on things for us. Appreciate it. 

JOE: Always here to bring you the cheery news, Jimmy

Italian rail strike

Information compiled by James Morgan

JIMMY: One of Italy’s largest unions has called for a 24-hour rail strike starting tonight. It’s scheduled to run until 9 pm tomorrow.

The move marks the latest in a series of strikes calling for action from the Italian government over Gaza. 

Rome has stopped short of recognizing Palestinian statehood, with Prime Minister Meloni saying that it could only happen if the Israeli hostages were freed and Hamas removed from government. 

The strike will impact services run by Trenitalia, Trenord and Italo, and companies have warned the walkout could lead to timetable changes before and after the designated strike times. 

Italy guarantees regional rail services during strikes on weekdays from 6 a.m. to 9 a.m. and 6 p.m. to 9 p.m.

Now, mass disruption is expected throughout tomorrow and Italian rail companies have warned customers to check digital channels in advance for cancellations and rail replacements. 

The next strikes impacting railway services have been called for Oct. 8 and Oct. 21. 

Additionally, further protest action is highly likely as trade unions continue to express anger over the Italian government perceived lack of action on Gaza.

Leadership election for Japan’s LDP

Information compiled by Hua Hsieh

JIMMY: Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party will elect its new leader on Saturday. That person is expected to replace the country’s outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

Earlier this month, Ishiba announced his decision to step down after the ruling coalition lost parliamentary majority in July’s upper house election. 

A total of five contenders have been announced, including front-runners former economic security minister Sanae Takaichi and farm minister Shinjiro Koizumi, both of whom ran in a party leadership race in September. 

The winner of the race is expected to become Japan’s next prime minister and navigate challenges including persistent inflation, heightened regional tensions and relations with the United States, as well as rebuilding the party as it’s been battered by a series of slush funds scandals. 

Now, both of the candidates leading the polls have promised changes in the country's fiscal policies if they win the race. 

The conservative candidate Takaichi has vowed to increase spending and cut taxes, as well as restarting nuclear power plants and screening foreign investment in sensitive industries. 

If elected, she could also become Japan’s first female prime minister. 

On the other hand, the son of a prominent political family, Koizumi could become the country’s youngest leader in the post-war era if elected. 

He’s pledged to boost wages and productivity to counter the cost-of-living crisis.

Syria parliamentary elections

Information compiled by Agnese Boffano

JIMMY: Syria will hold its parliamentary elections on Sunday. 

It’ll be the first since the ousting of former long-time President Bashar al-Assad this past December.

Originally set to take place in mid-September, preparations are now in place to host the country’s first parliamentary election since the formation of the new government, headed by President Ahmed al-Sharaa. 

A third of the 210 seats in the Syrian parliament are set to be appointed by him, while the remaining two-thirds will be selected by their respective electoral bodies. 

Foreign observers are also expected to be allowed into the country to oversee the voting process.

Now, these elections will be key in laying the framework for the future democratic building of the country and in reshaping Syria’s foreign policies aimed at overhauling decades of crippling economy and civil war. 

The incumbent government has pledged to represent Syria’s varied ethnic and religious population in the election process, including the Kurdish majority in the north and Druze majority in the southeast. 

Sectarian violence has come as a constant source of concern in the country, after a series of deadly fighting broke out in Latakia with the Alawite minority in March and in Sweida with the Druze population in July. 

Accordingly, analysts will be observing whether al-Sharaa is able to fully include his country’s diverse population in the new parliament.

French air controllers strike

Information compiled by Jess Fino

JIMMY: French air traffic control union SNCT will hold a national three-day strike starting Tuesday.

That, after last month’s action was suspended due to the fall of François Bayrou’s government.

The union confirmed it will go ahead with next week’s strike calling for better work and pay conditions. 

According to the union’s notice, workers also demand changes in their profession’s requalification plan and safety measurements.

Now, the strike is expected to bring many flights to a halt across the country, with people urged to check with their airlines before traveling to airports. 

The strike also comes while the government, now headed by Sebastien Lecornu, tries to finally present the budget, which needs to be finished by the end of the month.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors James Morgan, Hua Hsieh, Agnese Boffano and Jess Fino. Our interview featured editor Joe Veyera and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe