This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Oct. 16, 2025.

In this week’s Forecast we’ve got a coup in Madagascar, the ‘No Kings’ protests in the U.S., elections in Bolivia and Ireland and a meeting of China’s Communist Party.   

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Military coup in Madagascar

Interview featuring Owen Bonertz

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the apparent coup in Madagascar. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Owen Bonertz. 

JIMMY: Hello, Owen, 

OWEN: Hey, Jimmy. How are you? 

JIMMY: I am well, and even better now that you're here. This situation in Madagascar went from being, well, protests to a coup, I guess. And I'm hoping you can get us all caught up. So to start, you know, just what's happened? 

OWEN: Yeah, so in the past 48 hours, it appears that the president of Madagascar, Andry Rajoelina, who has been in power to some extent since 2009, was removed and replaced by a transitional military government. But the situation really didn't start like that. There were protests that started in Madagascar in the end of September, kind of as an extension of the global Gen Z protest movement that we've been seeing in places like Kenya, Nepal, Indonesia over the past six months. And those protests really began on September 22 in response to persistent power cuts and water cuts in some of the cities of Madagascar. Those can go on for up to 12 hours some days. And in particular, the country's hydroelectric system has really struggled to keep up with demand due to a drought. So that's kind of what began the protest movement, first at a university on the outskirts of the capital city Antananarivo on the 22nd and then, to a much greater extent, on September 25 when protest groups kind of organized in a decentralized way through Discord and Facebook to come out into the streets. And the events of September 25 were probably the most destructive up to this point. There was quite a bit of looting in the capital city. The homes of some politicians were attacked, and the city's public transport gondola system was actually vandalized. So the protests after September 25 continued for maybe another three weeks. They were pretty consistently and – put down in a violent way by the country's security forces. According to the most recent estimates from the UN, at least 22 people died and over 100 were injured at these protests. But they kind of ebbed and flowed as the weeks and weekends went on, and by the end of last week, the – some of the curfews that had been put in place in a lot of the country were actually lifted, maybe indicating that some of the things that the government had done to appease the protesters were working. But that was very quickly proven to be not true, because on Saturday, October 11, members of Madagascar's military, in particular the elite CAPSAT unit, defected from the military and kind of joined the protest movement in the streets and threw their support behind it, kind of beginning this military coup that has forced Andry Rajoelina out of power in the span of a couple days.

JIMMY: Well what's the latest? You know, have you seen any new developments? 

OWEN: Yeah so, over the weekend, beginning on Saturday, the members of the CAPSAT forces, they pretty quickly took control of most of the major government buildings in Antananarivo. There were some reports of small skirmishes between security forces loyal to the president and CAPSAT, and at least one member of CAPSAT died. But other than that, it was mostly a bloodless coup. But pretty quickly after, CAPSAT kind of took physical control of the city. They then took control of the entire security forces by appointing one of their members as the leader of the military, generally within the country. And shortly after that, reports began to circulate that the President Andry Rajoelina had actually fled the country. And on Sunday, this was confirmed, that he most likely boarded a French military plane to the island of Reunion. And we're not exactly sure where he is today, but he did address the nation on Monday from a Zoom background in, kind of, an undisclosed location, asserting that he was still in power, despite the fact that the security forces on the ground in Antananarivo were no longer loyal to him. One of the things he did to, kind of, try to cling to power was actually dissolve the country's parliament. But before that could actually take place, the parliament, in fact, voted to impeach him, paving the way for a new transitional military government headed by the leader of the CAPSAT unit, Colonel Michael Randrianirina. So this transitional government, according to them, will stay in power for about the next two years as another democratic transition takes place, but we will likely see international pressures to kind of accelerate this and make the transition happen sooner.

JIMMY: Well, what kind of reactions to this have you seen?

OWEN: Well, the situation in Madagascar this year is kind of remarkably similar to what took place in 2009 that actually brought Andry Rajoelina into power. He himself was part of a protest movement that was then backed up by a military coup headed by CAPSAT, and that kind of started his regime in 2009. And in 2009 there was a big, kind of, international response to this and condemnation of the kind of anti-democratic nature of this power swap. So we've kind of started to see that pushback already. In particular, just a few hours ago, the African Union suspended the membership of Madagascar. Another interesting factor of it all is that Andry Rajoelina is actually the sitting president of the Southern African Development Community, which is, kind of, a transnational organization that includes basically every country from Tanzania south in southern Africa. So most likely he will be shuffled out and replaced with somebody else. And in 2009 Madagascar was actually suspended from the Southern African Development Community, so we could see that happen again. Logistically, some of the major international airlines that fly into Antananarivo have started to suspend their flights, notably Ethiopian Airlines and Air France, and lot of the Western embassies on the ground have, of course, issued general statements telling their nationals to stay inside and wait for things to blow over due to just the general instability of it all.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

OWEN: Well, I think that the protest movement in Madagascar started with a very different goal in mind than another military coup. There were reports of celebrations, kind of, in the streets of Antananarivo yesterday and on Monday following the coup, just from the perspective of young people, happy that the nearly 15-year Rajoelina regime had been toppled. But it remains to be seen if this new military government will: one, actually give up power to democracy or push for a democratic transition; or two, if the Gen Z movement, the young people of Madagascar, will be represented in this new government. In addition to that, I think we are still kind of waiting for the official resignation of Andry Rajoelina. He has continued to put out statements in absentia, claiming that he's in charge, when in fact, he doesn't really control the situation on the ground in the country. I think that we should also keep an eye out to see if the country's electrical grid continues to struggle. That was the thing that sparked the protest movement, so to speak, and while the Rajoelina government, during the protests, made a lot of public statements about investing more into the grid, and the water system, these things won't change overnight. And then finally, I would say we should look at, kind of, the rhetoric and the posture of this new military government towards the west, generally. In the past five years, we've seen a number of military coups take place in former French colonies, mostly in West Africa, but also in Gabon. And in many of these countries, particularly Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, the new military governments have stepped in and really pushed out Western influence, instead leaning towards Russia and China. So I think it's quite likely that we see that here. The previous government of Andry Rajoelina had generally close ties to the French. They helped him evacuate from Madagascar, and Rajoelina himself holds a French passport. So I think we are likely to see a general pushback from the population against Western influence, and this new military government could align themselves with the military juntas that are in place in West Africa towards a kind of anti-imperialist posture on the global stage.

JIMMY: Well, Owen, we'll have to pause there for today, but as usual, thanks so much for your time and for keeping us up to date. Always appreciate it

OWEN: Absolutely. Thanks, Jimmy.

‘No Kings’ protests

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: There will be a second round of the “No Kings” protests across the United States on Saturday.

The nationwide protests against U.S. President Donald Trump come after the movement organized demonstrations across more than 2,000 cities in June against what protesters say is democratic backsliding spearheaded by the Trump administration. 

This weekend’s round of demonstrations are expected to match the ones in June in both size and scope with protests expected in most major cities in addition to a large one planned in front of the U.S. Capitol.

Now, the planned Capitol building protest marks a divergence from June’s round of “No Kings” demonstrations which consciously avoided Washington, D.C. 

Trump’s allies have been quick to vocally slam the organized protests, with House Speaker Mike Johnson describing them as being “pro-Hamas” and “Antifa people” despite the first round being overwhelmingly peaceful.

Bolivian presidential election runoff

Information compiled by Irene Villora

JIMMY: Bolivians will go to polls Sunday to elect a new president. 

It’s a runoff election that will end 20 years of left-wing governments in the country.

Former Senator Rodrigo Paz will face off against former President Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga after the two finished the first round of votes way ahead of the ruling MAS party, which was relegated to sixth place with a historical low of just over 3% of the ballots.

The first round results reflect a general disenchantment with the left after two decades of consecutive MAS governments, not including Jeanine Añez’s brief interim presidency after Evo Morales resigned and fled the country. 

That, you may recall, was in 2019 amid civil unrest following reports of election rigging. 

Outgoing President Luis Arce’s MAS government has faced years of internal divisions and party disputes in the context of a deep economic crisis.

Now, Rodrigo Paz of the Christian Democratic Party is a center-right senator and son of former Bolivian President Jaime Paz Zamora. 

He has based his campaign on three main points: a decentralization program that would increase regional autonomy, a promise of accessible credit and relaxing of tax rules, and justice reform to tackle corruption. 

Meanwhile, conservative Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga of the Libre party could come back to the presidency 24 years after becoming one the country’s youngest leaders. 

His campaign has centered around liberal economic policies including the defunding of the state, an institutional reform to guarantee the independence of the judiciary and digitalization initiatives. 

Still, regardless of who wins, the next president will face an inter-annual inflation nearing 25%, fuel scarcity and a weakening local currency.

China’s Central Committee to hold fourth plenary session

Information compiled by Hua Hsieh

JIMMY: The top decision-making body of the Chinese Communist Party will begin meeting Monday.

They’re expected to discuss the country's development plan over the next five years.

China’s Communist Party meets every five years to determine the make-up of its central committee, where members make decisions on a broad range of social, political and economic issues and policies in seven meetings across a five-year term. 

The 20th Central Committee is set to convene its fourth plenary session in Beijing, with the country’s 2026-2030 plan on the top of the agenda. 

This meeting came against the backdrop of China’s persistent property slump, deflation, slowing growth, and Beijing’s prolonged trade war with the United States.

Now, the five-year plan attracts the attention of not only the domestic audience, but also investors and international leaders, as Beijing’s policy will have repercussions across the world. 

Aside from the economic challenges, analysts will also be closely monitoring potential reshuffles of the party’s senior leadership.

Irish presidential election

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: Ireland will hold an election next Friday to pick the successor to President Michael Higgins.

Higgins, who’s been in office since 2011, is barred by constitutional term limits from standing again, throwing open the field. 

After a number of candidates expressed interest in running, electoral requirements narrowed the field to three: independent candidate and former parliamentarian Catherine Connolly, former military officer and popular sports star Jim Gavin and experienced cabinet minister Heather Humphreys. 

Gavin, who ran with the backing of the country’s prime minister and the lead party in Ireland’s government, Fianna Fail, withdrew from the race earlier this month narrowing the field to two. 

That leaves Connolly and Humphreys.

Connolly, who enjoys broad left-wing support, including from Irish nationalist party Sinn Fein, is the current frontrunner in polls 

Humphreys, meanwhile, has support from the junior party in Ireland’s government as well as a broad rural base.

Now, the president of Ireland serves as head of state but acts in a largely ceremonial role. 

Finally, with current President Higgins’ second term set to expire on November 11, a presidential inauguration for the winner of this election is expected to take place the day after, beginning a seven-year term that ends in 2032.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Alex Moore, Irene Villora, Hua Hsieh and David Wyllie. Our interview featured editor Owen Bonertz and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe