This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Oct. 23, 2025.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got a new centrist president in Bolivia, elections in Argentina and the Netherlands, Trump visiting Japan and the APEC summit in South Korea. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Bolivia election aftermath

Interview featuring Jeff Landset

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the recent presidential election in Bolivia. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Jeff Landset. 

JIMMY: Hello, Jeff, 

JEFF: Hi, Jimmy. How are you? 

JIMMY: I'm great. Always love when you're here, and always enjoy learning something new whenever you're on the podcast. I saw Bolivia is getting a new president, and I'm hoping you can get us up to speed on it. So you know, what's happened? Can you give us a bit of a recap? 

JEFF: Sure. On Sunday, Rodrigo Paz won the runoff against a right-wing candidate. Paz is the son of a former president. He has been described as either centrist or right-leaning. It officially ends 20 years of rule of the socialist party MAS. It has been ruled this whole time by that party, namely with the person who started that party, Evo Morales, and the current president, Luis Arce. Morales and Arce had a major falling out, which may have led to the breakup and the failure of the MAS party in this latest election, which ended up being run between this centrist candidate and a right-leaning candidate who did not win. Paz ran with the slogan “capitalism for all,” trying to move away from socialism as a way to run the country. Over the last 20 years, Bolivia has fallen into an economic despair. The people there, you know, they were fed up with the corruption. They have started to save money and keep it in their homes, as opposed to banks. And the value of the boliviano has fallen significantly over the last 20 years, which kind of has led to this changing of the guard.

JIMMY: And what's the latest? There been any new developments?

JEFF: Yeah, so Paz spoke to, you know, media after his win, and quickly said that he would be reestablishing relations with the U.S. Another big change is that he would not invite countries to his inauguration – countries like Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela – you know, countries that are seen as leftist with problematic leaders. And they would obviously have been front and center at prior inaugurations for the MAS party and the socialist candidates. So, yeah, this looks like it'll be a significant change, a rightward shift, for the country that hasn't been seen in decades.

JIMMY: Well, what sort of reactions to all this have you seen?

JEFF: Yeah, I think that people in Bolivia, they wanted to change away from socialism, but not so much that they wanted to shift to this far-right candidate that was running. They do like their social programs, but they also are sick of the corruption. They are sick of the lack of money. There are fuel issues that are rampant throughout the country, and so the people of the country are looking for a change. However, they seemed a bit jaded about the whole thing. You know, we've seen articles talking about how people thought that nothing much would change, however, they did want to see something happen, at least in terms of moving away from the Morales party. 

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next then?

JEFF: Yeah, so Bolivia has seen a lot of things happen with Evo Morales over the last 20 years. He is the most famous leader in the country at this moment, possibly in the country's history. And so whatever happens with him may determine whether or not this is a successful presidency. Morales wanted to run again; tried to run again, but was forbidden after being president three times. The constitution didn't allow that. And he is also now facing some sexual impropriety allegations. He is also facing charges of human trafficking. So he has legal issues at the moment. We'll see what happens with him, whether or not he stays in Bolivia. He may flee the country like he has done previously, in a time when he was forced out of the country and a new president took over. And so we will see what happens with that, and in terms of the relation between Luis Arce and Morales, as well as Paz, in this new presidential regime.

JIMMY: Well, Jeff, we'll pause there for today, but as usual, thanks so much for your time and for keeping a close eye on the region for us. Appreciate you.

JEFF: Thank you.

Argentina midterm elections

Information compiled by Irene Villora

JIMMY: Argentina will hold legislative elections on Sunday. They’ll elect 127 deputies and 24 senators. 

The country’s Chamber of Deputies gets renewed by halves every two years with a minimum of five seats guaranteed per province. 

The Senate ensures federal representation at Congress is formed by three elected representatives per province plus Buenos Aires. 

A third of the Senate will be renewed through the upcoming vote. 

Voting in Argentina is mandatory for citizens between 18 and 70 [years] of age and optional for citizens between 16 and 18 and over 70.

Now, recent polls suggest we’ll see a close and polarized vote, with President Javier Milei’s ultra-conservative La Libertad Avanza party leading the left-wing opposition party Fuerza Patria by a couple percentage points. About 37% to 35%.

Centrist alliance Provincias Unidas is polling far behind, at only 5 percent. 

The election comes amid ongoing voter fatigue and skepticism about national politics.

Trump Japan visit

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: U.S. President Donald Trump will visit Japan on Monday. 

Trump’s visit is part of a broader trip through the Asia-Pacific region that will include attending the ASEAN summit in Malaysia and the APEC summit in South Korea. 

Now, In Japan, Trump will meet newly-appointed Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi who made history this week by becoming the first female Japanese head of state. 

She’s a hardline conservative and nationalist who was a protege of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Abe, you may recall, famously enjoyed a relatively good relationship with Trump during his first term.

Takaichi is an advocate of bolstering the U.S.-Japan alliance and was praised by Trump on social media after winning the LDP leadership vote.

Netherlands elections

Information compiled by Jess Fino

JIMMY: Dutch citizens will head to the polls on Wednesday.

The election comes after the coalition government collapsed earlier in June due to a dispute over the government’s position on asylum.

A four-party coalition was formed following elections in 2023, bringing together the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV), the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy, the New Social Contract and the Farmer-Citizen Movement. 

The arrangement collapsed this June after Party for Freedom’s chief Geert Wilders resigned after the coalition declined to commit to his 10-point plan on migration. 

The remaining parties continued as a caretaker government since then, but not without its challenges, as two months later foreign minister Caspar Veldkamp resigned over the government’s stance on Israel.

Now, while Party for Freedom remains in the lead, a majority is not likely and other parties have ruled out forming a government with the party. 

This means a new fragmented coalition could be formed, as well as the formation of a minority government. 

Whatever the outcome, stability is possibly not in the cards, in a country that has seen three elections in five years.

APEC summit

Information compiled by Hua Hsieh

JIMMY: Representatives from 21 member countries of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation will meet in South Korea next Friday and Saturday.

With the theme of “building a sustainable tomorrow,” this year’s APEC summit will focus on “addressing shared challenges, embracing digital innovation, and prioritizing inclusive growth”. 

South Korean authorities have strengthened security in the southeastern city of Gyeongju where high-level officials are expected to gather. 

They’re mobilizing up to 18,500 police and security officers, as well as anti-drone jammers, armoured vehicles and helicopters. 

Among the attendees, many are keeping a close eye on U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping, as the two are expected to meet for the first time since Trump re-entered the White House. 

Around 1,700 global industry leaders, including Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, will also visit the city for the CEO summit that runs parallel to the forum leaders' summit, from Oct. 28 to 31.

Now, the summit comes against the backdrop of fresh tension between the United States and China. 

Earlier this month, Beijing expanded its export rules on rare earth materials used in a wide range of electronic devices, a move which was followed by Trump’s remark threatening additional tariffs of 100 percent on Chinese imports starting Nov. 1. 

Accordingly, analysts will be watching closely as the leaders of the world’s two largest economies go head to head.

While both the White House and Beijing are reassuring traders and investors that they are looking for a way forward, they’ve also emphasized that they won’t easily back down.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Irene Villora, Alex Moore, Jess Fino and Hua Hsieh. Our interview featured editor Jeff Landset and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe