This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Oct. 30, 2025.

In this week’s Forecast we’ve got deadly protests in Cameroon, food stamp benefits at risk in the US, an OPEC+ meeting, elections in the United States and the US Supreme Court hearing a case on tariffs. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Cameroon protests

Interview featuring Owen Bonertz

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the recent unrest in Cameroon. For more on that I’ve got an editor from our Africa desk, Owen Bonertz.

JIMMY: Hello, Owen, 

OWEN: Hey, Jimmy. How's it going? 

JIMMY: It goes well. As always, glad you're here. Looks like there's been some pretty notable unrest in Cameroon. So let's just start out with that. What can you tell us about it? 

OWEN: Yeah. So essentially, since October 15, there's been major rioting, demonstrations, protests, whatever you want to call them, across the major cities of Cameroon. And those have been related to the country's election, which actually took place on October 12. That election pit longstanding – long, long, longstanding – President Paul Biya against the opposition candidate Issa Tchiroma. Biya has actually been in power since 1982 and he's 92-years-old. He's the oldest sitting head of state in the world at the moment. He's been reelected seven times to, kind of, varying degrees of legitimacy. Probably saw the biggest challenge in 1992 when he kind of barely squeaked through with 40% of the vote. But through systems of patronage – and through kind of an iron fist and a lot of political repression – he's managed to stay in power since 1982. But this year he was given a real challenge. According to the official results of the election that were just released on Monday, Biya only won about 56% of the vote, and Tchiroma won around 36% of the vote. So a lot of people would attribute that to Biya's age. Biya, of course, is extremely old and presidential terms in Cameroon are seven years. He'll be 99 by the time he leaves office, this time, assuming he makes it that far. So people in Cameroon were desperate for change, and Tchiroma also kind of took to the streets and rallied people in a way that previous opposition candidates have not done. He held a lot of very big rallies at the major cities, whereas Biya was actually in Europe, you know, bumping shoulders with heads of state there for much of the campaign, and really only held one large rally in the Capitol on October 7 before the actual vote. So popular energy was definitely behind Tchiroma in a way that wasn't the same in 2018. And I think one thing that has, like, particularly inflamed people this time around is the way in which the results were actually released. I mentioned that the election actually took place on October 12, but we didn't get results until October 27. They took their sweet time counting them, which is something that is giving people pause about how legitimate they are. And throughout that period, there [were] demonstrations basically every day, especially in the capital of Yaoundé and in Tchiroma's home city of Garoua. So that's what's been happening so far. As of today, October 29, the demonstrations are still going on, and they are still continuing to be put down in a violent manner by the state security forces. We're seeing live ammunition, tear gas, and a lot of opposition figures being arrested, including a threat to arrest Issa Tchiroma from government officials already.

JIMMY: Well, I know you said protests are still going on, but is there anything new? What's the latest? There been any new developments?

OWEN: So on today, October 29, the demonstrations are most pronounced in the city of Douala. There's been reporting of looting there. Just yesterday, RFI, Radio France Internationale, just put out a report, kind of cataloging all the damage that's taken place in the big cities. Tchiroma himself, just a couple days ago, actually said that he was the target of a kidnapping attempt, which can't be directly put on the government, but, you know, maybe we can make assumptions. And beyond that, I don't necessarily expect the demonstrations will end right away. People are still upset, and they're not convinced of the legitimacy of this year's vote, even if Tchiroma, as an opposition candidate, can't really do anything in the court system to challenge the Biya's now seven-year mandate that he has just won.

JIMMY: Well, what sort of reactions to all this have you seen?

OWEN: Well, I mentioned that the state security forces have not been afraid to use violence to put down the demonstrations. We don't have, kind of, a conclusive death toll or arrest numbers for all of the protests that have taken place thus far, but basically, every day there's reports of multiple people killed in the major cities. I would imagine the numbers are in the dozens, or possibly over 100 people dead at this point. A lot of internet monitoring organizations, including NetBlocks, have reported major internet outages in Cameroon since the start of this. You can imagine they're trying to limit the spread of information on social media. For their part, the overseas Cameroonian population, which is particularly big in France and Canada, have kind of rallied behind Tchiroma. There's been videos of overseas Cameroonian polling stations counting the votes overwhelmingly in favor of Tchiroma. And the international community has issued statements about what's been going on, but not necessarily changed their stance towards the Biya regime. The Biya regime has maintained pretty good ties with France, especially, but also the European Union and the United States, just because they're seen as kind of a stable, steady hand in that part of Africa that is not particularly extremist. So the statement that the European Union actually put out about what's been happening did not directly call the results of the election fraudulent or questionable. They only mentioned that they would really like it if the government stopped shooting at protesters with live ammunition. So that's kind of been the response from the West thus far. And I should also mention that the US State Department bumped up their travel advisory in Cameroon because of the demonstrations.

JIMMY: Well, considering all this, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

OWEN: Well, the number one thing to watch is probably just over the next seven years, if Paul Biya is actually able to make it to I guess what would be the 2032 election. He has a clear successor. It's his oldest son, Frank, who he's kind of been trying to integrate into the regime more and more. Health rumors for Paul Biya have gone back as long as to 2004. There were people wondering if he was on his death bed back then. Somehow he's managed to stick around for another 20 years, but to the point where reporting on his health is actually banned in the Cameroonian press. So I don't imagine Biya will serve the remainder of this term, and that's obviously one of the things that's made people in Cameroon so upset about the whole situation. From the perspective of an international observer, flights have not really been impacted coming in and out of the country. The two biggest airports in Yaoundé and Douala have functioned normally, which they actually did not in 2018 during some of the violence that surrounded the last election, which was on a smaller scale, but did take place. And then, of course, to talk about Cameroon and not mention the Anglophone conflict that's been going on in the north, would be ignoring a massive elephant in the room here. The Southwest, Northwest and Littoral Regions of Cameroon, basically since 2016, have seen an active armed insurgency. It's not as active as it was in 2016 but nevertheless, there are still multiple combat fatalities going on there in those regions basically every single month. In previous elections, the Anglophone regions of the country have always voted against the opposition – but in many cases they've actually boycotted. This year they did not, and the Anglophone rebel groups that control large parts of those regions, especially outside of the cities, explicitly said, we're going to protect the polling stations. We encourage people to go out and vote in this federal election, even if it's for a government that they don't necessarily see as legitimate. And so I think those votes actually really helped buoy Tchiroma, and have contributed to making this a closer contest than what it was previously thought to be. Tchiroma, in his election campaign, actually came out and said he was in favor of a more federal system that would kind of give more power to the Anglophone regions, to, you know, allow them to have things like schools and courtrooms in English, as opposed to their colonial language of French. And I think one of the ironies of this is actually that Tchiroma himself has been around the Cameroonian government for a very, very long time. He, in 1984, was jailed for attempting to plot a coup d'etat against Biya, who was already in power. He was released by the 90s, came into the legislature as an opposition figure. And then, I believe 2019, was actually appointed to Biya's cabinet and served as his minister of communications for several years. And when he was minister of communications, he banned the use of the word federalism in the Cameroonian press, because that was seen as kind of like a way – a supplication, or giving too much, to the Anglophone rebels. In this campaign, he's completely reversed on that and said things of the nature like, Oh, I'm a free man now. I can speak freely. I'm not involved in the Biya government. So I think we should have federalism. All that being said, keep an eye on the Northwest, and specifically the level of conflict there, see if it spikes now that Biya is back in power and we're not going to get anything approaching a federal system like what Tchiroma was promising. And then, in general, I think we should just see if the protest movement continues. This month of October has been particularly tumultuous in Africa. We've already seen regime change in Madagascar, kind of stemming from a popular protest movement, and then there's been two other major elections in medium-to-big countries, namely Tanzania and Ivory Coast, that have seen major demonstrations put down in a violent manner by the government. There seems to be something kind of spreading generally in Africa, a bit of autumn protest movements, a la, the Arab Spring, perhaps. So don't expect the protests to stop right away, and don't expect Paul Biya to be president in in 2032 I would say,

JIMMY: Well, Owen, we'll pause there for today, but thanks so much for getting us up to speed. Always appreciate it, and always appreciate your time.

OWEN: My pleasure. 

ACA open enrollment begins, SNAP runs out

Information compiled by Theresa Seiger

JIMMY: Enrollment opens Saturday for Americans looking to get insurance through the Affordable Care Act. 

It comes amid the ongoing government shutdown and on the same day the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, otherwise known as SNAP, is set to stop issuing benefits.

Congress has failed several times to end the shutdown since the government ran out of funding on Oct. 1, with Democrats and Republicans trading blame for the situation. 

Democrats insist that Republicans address the soon-expiring ACA tax credits, while Republicans argue that the government must first be reopened before negotiations can commence. 

In a message posted on its website, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said that, due to the shutdown, “the well has run dry,” and no SNAP benefits would be issued on Saturday. 

The announcement sparked a lawsuit Tuesday from a group including over two dozen Democratic state attorneys general and governors.

Now, in the lawsuit, states argued that the failure to pay SNAP benefits is unlawful and "will cause deterioration of public health and well-being," with the states ultimately bearing the cost of the decision. 

Over 41 million Americans receive an average of $187 each month in SNAP benefits, according to the USDA. 

Meanwhile, the non-profit KFF estimates that the ACA Marketplace out-of-pocket premiums will be 114 percent higher than average next year. 

That is, if Congress fails to reach an agreement to continue the tax credits central to the government shutdown battle. 

Finally, if lawmakers fail to come to an agreement in the coming days, the shutdown could become the longest in U.S. history.

OPEC+ meeting

Information compiled by James Morgan

JIMMY: The world’s eight largest oil-producing nations will meet on Sunday. 

According to unnamed industry sources consulted by Reuters, the eight are likely to agree to hike production by a further 137,000 barrels per day in December.

The expected boost to oil production comes as part of a phased restoration of volumes after OPEC+ curbed production over several years in a bid to support the oil market. 

Additional supply contributed to a five-month low in the oil price on Oct. 20 over concerns of a supply glut. 

Prices have since rallied to around $66 a barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump levied sanctions on Russia’s largest oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil in a bid to pressure Moscow back to the negotiating table over the war in Ukraine.

Now, it’s likely the impact of the U.S. sanctions on the Russian oil sector will be felt in Asia. That’s where Russia redirected its oil exports in response to western sanctions. 

India and China currently import between 3.5 and 4.5 million barrels of Russian oil per day, much of which comes from newly-sanctioned Lukoil and Rosneft.

U.S. election day

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: American voters will decide a number of races on Tuesday, including the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections, the closely-watched New York City mayoral election, and a number of high-profile ballot initiatives.

With the midterms more than a year out, November’s off-year election day poses the first major electoral test for the Democrats and Republicans following President Trump’s inauguration in January. 

Polling shows Democrats are expected to win the governors’ mansions in Virginia and New Jersey, and Zohran Mamdani is expected to land a headline win in New York City’s mayoral race. 

Redistricting efforts by California, seen as a response to Republican efforts in Texas, will be put to voters in Proposition 50 and is expected to pass. 

A special election to fill the vacant Houston-area House seat may go to a runoff if none of the crowded field of 16 candidates wins a majority.

Now, the bar has been set high for Democrats, who are expected to sweep all of the main races and ultimately retain the vacant Houston-area House seat. 

Still, polling in each race, while favoring them, stops short of showing landslide wins despite record presidential disapproval and a government shutdown. 

An easy set of wins could set the party up for the midterms, but surprise losses or close calls could incur more soul-searching as to why they failed to win.

U.S. Supreme Court hears case on tariffs

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: The U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral arguments relating to President Donald Trump’s wide-ranging tariffs on Wednesday.

The landmark case is challenging Trump’s executive authority to impose sweeping unilateral control over the economy via the import duties that have been a hallmark of his second term. 

At the center of the constitutional debate over presidential powers is how the court’s “major questions doctrine” applies to the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act. 

The Trump administration has relied on this law as the legal basis for imposing executive import duties.

Now, this court has applied the “major questions doctrine” multiple times to strike down or scale back much of President Joe Biden’s high-level agenda, such as student debt relief and the EPA’s power to address climate change. 

It did so by claiming there was no clear and direct congressional authorization to act. 

While Trump tariffs have been unilaterally imposed and carry substantial domestic economic impact, the court could find that the “major questions doctrine” doesn’t fully apply given the overlap with national security and foreign policy. 

Those are areas where the court has typically granted more executive leeway. 

Trump, for his part, has resorted to verbally pressuring the court to side with his administration and has even suggested he may attend the hearing. 

If that were to happen, it would mark the first time a sitting president has done so.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Theresa Seiger, James Morgan, David Wyllie and Alex Moore. Our interview featured editor Owen Bonertz and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

Copyright © 2025 Factal. All rights reserved.

Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe