This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Nov. 6, 2025.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got the deadly typhoon in the Philippines, a presidential inauguration in Bolivia, Doctors Without Borders ordered out of Libya, the UN climate conference in Brazil and an election in Iraq. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Typhoon Kalmaegi

Interview featuring Awais Ahmad

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the typhoon that’s devastated the central Philippines. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Awais Ahmad.

JIMMY: Hello, Awais. 

AWAIS: Hi Jimmy, thank you for having me. 

JIMMY: I'm glad you're here. Thanks for your time this afternoon. Hoping you can get us caught up on the situation with this typhoon. So I guess to start, what's happened? Can you give us a bit of a recap?

AWAIS: Yeah, for sure. So Typhoon Kalmaegi, which is known locally in the Philippines as Tino, formed in the Philippine Sea, east of the country, and then struck central Philippines on Tuesday, bringing heavy rains and flooding and strong winds that inundated entire towns. The worst hit province was the province of Cebu, which was already recovering from a major deadly earthquake in late September, which made, sort of, the impact of the disaster almost twicefold in that way. Among the dead were six military personnel who died when their plane crashed in Agusan del Sur on Tuesday while en route to deliver humanitarian aid.

JIMMY: And what's the latest? There been any new developments? 

AWAIS: Yeah, so the latest for this storm is that it is now moving westward over the South China Sea. It is expected to intensify further before making landfall along Vietnam's Central Coast on Friday. China has already issued warnings of catastrophic wave process and has activated emergency response in the southern Hainan Province. And then in Vietnam, authorities have already begun evacuations in flood-prone areas and canceled flights with Vietnam Airlines and VASCO on Thursday and Friday as a precaution. Important to note that Vietnam was hit with flooding since October 26, which is separate from this typhoon, which left more than 30 people dead. And so it's an area that's being hit again, or will be hit again on Friday, that was already reeling from disastrous flooding.

JIMMY: Well, what kind of reactions have you seen to this all so far?

AWAIS: So the Philippine government has declared a state of calamity in Cebu province. They have, the governor of the province, also referred to the situation as unprecedented, citing the combination of widespread flooding, infrastructure collapse, and earlier earthquake damage. And so what we're seeing -- a lot of internal disaster management response, but relief efforts are being hampered by debris and flood waters still standing.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

AWAIS: Well, like I mentioned, the storm is now moving towards Vietnam's coast, and so where folks should be keeping an eye out for flooding there and other disasters there. Again, already an area that was reeling from disaster since late October. And in the Philippines, floodwaters are beginning to recede, so search and rescue efforts are ongoing in isolated areas. We should expect the toll to rise, and for there to potentially be new tolls from Vietnam and maybe China as well. We're not completely out of the woods yet, but we'll be watching closely as the storm moves closer to Vietnam.

JIMMY: Well, Awais, as usual, that's where we'll pause for today. But thank you so much for your time and keeping such a close eye on the region force. Appreciate it 

AWAIS. Of course, Jimmy. Thank you for having me.

Rodrigo Paz inauguration as president of Bolivia

Information compiled by Clara Ip Wai Nam

JIMMY: Rodrigo Paz will be inaugurated as Bolivia’s next president on Saturday.

He’ll become the country’s first conservative leader in 20 years.

Paz won the Oct 19 runoff with about 54 percent of the vote, ending nearly two decades of Movement for Socialism party dominance. 

The inauguration is scheduled in La Paz with the oath before the Plurinational Legislative Assembly. 

At least 45 foreign delegations will attend.

Now, while electoral authorities have confirmed the vote’s tally, there have been protests demanding an audit of results in La Paz and other cities.

Rolling road closures and access controls are expected in central La Paz, especially around Plaza Murillo, where public ceremonies will be centred, and the Legislative Assembly during the ceremony. 

Given past patterns of demonstrations and blockades, there’s reason to expect protest activity causing intermittent disruptions to urban traffic and inter-city routes. 

Finally, once lawmakers get to work, any missteps on price reforms or governance could trigger renewed blockades, which historically have imposed significant nationwide disruption.

MSF told to leave Libya

Information compiled by Agnese Boffano

JIMMY: The NGO Médicins Sans Frontières (MSF), also known as Doctors Without Borders, has been ordered to leave Libya by Sunday.

The organization was first instructed, back in March, to suspend its activities in Libya after its premises were closed by the Libyan Internal Security Agency.

That agency operates under the umbrella of the Libyan Armed Forces in Benghazi, in the east. 

That suspension turned into an expulsion when the NGO received a letter from the Foreign Ministry ordering it to leave the country altogether, without providing an explanation.

Now, the head of MSF’s program in Libya has said that the organization “still has an important role to play” in the country, including through its treatment of tuberculosis and support of the country’s general health care system. 

MSF’s suspension in the country also risks putting the lives of thousands of refugees in danger.

Libya remains a hub of migrant smuggling and trafficking from across the African continent toward the Mediterranean. 

MSF had provided life-saving healthcare to thousands of refugees who found themselves in the country and who would otherwise be excluded from the country’s care.

COP30 in Brazil

Information compiled by Irene Villora

JIMMY: The UN’s 30th climate change conference will begin in Brazil on Monday.

The conference will take place in Belém, capital of Brazil’s Para state in the country’s lower Amazon region. 

That region is home to one of the planet’s most important ecosystems which continues to be threatened by deforestation despite partially successful government efforts.

Of course, having the Amazon as the venue has raised controversies after the government directed heavy investments to build accommodations and improve roads in a region that suffers high poverty rates. 

The Brazilian government has defended the choice of Belém as a venue citing hopes it will bring attention to the importance of protecting the rainforest despite approving an oil drilling project in the Amazon a month before the start of the event.

Now, this year’s summit is significant as member countries must submit their updated national plans to meet climate pledges under the Paris Agreement. 

According to the agreement,  greenhouse gas emissions must decline by 43 percent by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5°C. 

Representatives from more than 190 countries have been invited, but only 163 delegations have confirmed their attendance as of late October.

That, reportedly due to accommodation scarcity and skyrocketing prices amid the demand. 

The topics of discussion this year will include the allocation of funds for vulnerable nations and the creation of a new fund to protect forests. 

Brazil might also push the topic of biofuels use as part of the agenda.

Iraq parliamentary election

Information compiled by Ahmed Namatalla

JIMMY: Iraqis will elect 329 members of parliament on Tuesday. 

It’s an election which will in turn determine the country’s next holder of its highest executive office of prime minister and balance of power between its Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish populations.

Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, backed by the country’s biggest Shiite parties and armed groups, is looking to remain in the office he’s held since 2022. 

That, after having navigated through bouts of protests against lack of basic services like water and electricity, the years-long dispute over oil revenues with the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region and the Israeli-U.S. war with neighboring Iran. 

Iraq’s elections commission says it has registered hundreds of local and foreign monitors and journalists for the vote, with nearly 8,000 candidates competing for seats.

Now, more than two decades after the U.S. overthrew Saddam Hussein, triggering a civil war and foreign occupation that have cost tens of thousands of lives, Iraq continues to struggle to unite its factions using a democratic system that exists in few other countries in the Middle East. 

Pulled in opposite directions by U.S. and Iranian influences, the country’s next government will have to grapple with security, energy and social challenges. 

Those challenges have caused multiple eruptions of violence, assassinations and limited economic growth despite Iraq’s vast wealth.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Clara Ip Wai Nam, Agnese Boffano, Irene Villora and Ahmed Namtalla. Our interview featured editor Awais Ahmad and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe