This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Nov. 13, 2025

In this week’s forecast we’ve got explosions in Delhi and Islamabad, a transit strike deadline in Montreal, elections in Chile, a constitutional referendum in Ecuador and the Saudi crown prince visiting the White House. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Indian Cabinet calls New Delhi blast ‘terrorist-incident’

Interview featuring Halima Mansoor

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the recent car explosion in Delhi and suicide bombing in Islamabad. For more on that I’ve got Factal Senior Editor Halima Mansoor.

JIMMY: Hi Halima. 

HALIMA: Hi Jimmy, thanks for having me. 

JIMMY: I'm glad you're here. I know you've been following things closely with Delhi this week and I'm hoping you can get us all caught up to speed. So I guess to start, you know, what's happened? Can you give us a bit of a recap?

HALIMA: Well, a car exploded near Delhi's Red Fort metro station on Monday, killing at least nine people. There is some contradiction around the toll. We don't have a firm number, but we believe at least nine people were killed. Initially, we didn't have a lot of information to call it an attack or a bomb blast. There were no clear markers of a bomb that you usually tend to see around the site, and there were no claims of responsibility by any terror group, even though the media was pretty quick to start speculating and connecting it to this big anti-terror raid in Haryana, where the police apparently found a large amount of explosives, and the media was linking it to, like, the blast.

JIMMY: And what's the latest? There been any new developments?

HALIMA: Well, over the past 24 hours, the Indian counter-terror agency has taken over the investigation and the Indian cabinet has passed a resolution in which they condemned it as a terrorist incident. So while they haven't pointed fingers towards any particular actor, everybody is watching to see if they're going to blame Pakistan. And, not to draw sort of any direct conclusions, but there was an apparent suicide blast at a court complex in Islamabad the following day, and that was claimed by one of the factions of the Pakistani Taliban, which the Pakistani government accused of being supported by Afghanistan and by association India.

JIMMY: Well, what sort of reactions to all this have you seen?

HALIMA: Well, apart from, like, the usual, state-level condolences, everybody seems to be waiting to react to – or waiting to react after India points a finger at whichever entity or actor. And then I feel like various people, countries, are just waiting to see how close are they to the response line. And essentially, after the court bombing in Islamabad, even though they didn't share evidence for it, Islamabad quite directly accused India, calling the attack an Indian state-sponsored terrorism in the region. And we're not really clear on what part Islamabad had other than the Tehrik-e-Taliban claim, but this is the direction they went. So now, if India blames Pakistan, like it did after the attack in April in Pahalgam, the region, the various allies – they're already likely preparing to talk everybody down from a military confrontation between these two nuclear-armed countries. And it's unclear if this ultra-nationalist government of BJP will want to attack Pakistan the same way as it did in May, because they might not want to risk President Trump's response by way of not reducing tariffs on India, which is what they're hoping for in this very moment.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

HALIMA: I think first off, it's who does India officially blame for the attack? Is Pakistan directly named as an entity or as a supporter? And if it's not just a direct ‘Pakistan was behind this,’ if they link it to the insurgency in Indian-administered Kashmir, I think we need to watch for what kind of raids or response will follow on the ground there. Will they send in troops? Will there be a curfew? Will it just be targeted operations? So even though both outcomes will have fairly different responses -- one is, you know, accusing a country that you just went to a short war with, and one is like accusing your insurgents who are already existing in your territory -- there's a likelihood of, like, a regional involvement there, because India blames Pakistan for supporting its insurgents in Kashmir as well. So these are the things that we would be watching for to see, you know, what happens next.

JIMMY: Well, Halima, we'll have to pause there for today, but thank you so much for your time. I know you'll be keeping an eye out for more developments, and I imagine we'll have you back if it needs. Appreciate it.

HALIMA: Thanks, Jimmy.

Deadline to end Montreal transit strike

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: Montreal’s public transit operator is seeking a deal with striking workers by Saturday.

Two separate groups have been on strike this month with maintenance workers as well as bus drivers and metro operators engaging in industrial action amid contract disputes. 

Now, the strikes coincide with a new law entering into force on Dec. 1 that gives Quebec provincial authorities the power to end strikes that harm the public good, though it remains unclear if a deal will be reached before then and if provincial authorities will opt to trigger this option. 

Quebec Labour Minister Jean Boulet, however, has indicated a willingness to speed up the implementation of the new law in order to force a resolution of the labor dispute.

Still, bus and metro operators have also threatened another strike on Nov. 15 and 16 barring progress made in contract negotiations.

That, after the group’s day-long strike earlier this month marked the first in 38 years.

Chile elections

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: Voters across Chile will choose the country’s next president and determine the makeup of its legislature on Sunday.

Chile’s incumbent president Gabriel Boric is barred from reelection due to term limits, having been elected as the country’s youngest leader on a left-wing platform in 2021. 

He is backing former minister Jeannette Jara who is running with the support of a center-left coalition. 

She is up against a field of candidates, including lawyer and ultraconservative politician José Antonio Kast who has seen a surge of support. 

Polling shows Jara in the lead, but falling short of absolute majority. 

If none of the candidates in the presidential election secure more than 50 percent of the vote, the two frontrunners will proceed to a runoff in December in a race that could see a surging right consolidate and ride a populist wave to victory. 

Voters will also determine the makeup of the 155-seat Chamber of Deputies as well as half of the seats in the Senate.

Now, following a likely runoff vote, the winner will be inaugurated as president of Chile in March 2026 and will have to deal with the new makeup of the country’s parliament in order to implement their agenda.

Ecuador holds referendum on constitution

Information compiled by Michael Archer

JIMMY: Ecuador will hold a referendum on two provisions in its constitution on Sunday.

The electoral council approved a request from President Daniel Noboa on Sept. 20 to schedule the referendum.

Ecuadorians will vote on whether to remove the prohibition on foreign military bases in the country and whether the state should retain an obligation to provide funding for political parties.

Now, Noboa has said he intends to combat drug trafficking cartels and gangs with the help of the United States and European countries. 

His vision closely aligns with a key tenet of the Trump administration’s plan to combat drug trafficking in South America. 

Accordingly, should both referendums pass, the US could establish military bases in Ecuador to combat drug trafficking organizations, and political parties could struggle to establish themselves or grow in absence of state-sponsored funding.

Saudi crown prince visits White House

Information compiled by Agnese Boffano

JIMMY: Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will visit with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House on Tuesday.

Of course, Saudi Arabia has long been one of the largest buyers of U.S. arms. 

As you may recall, the two countries signed a large defense package during Trump’s visit in Riyadh in May worth $142 billion. 

For decades, the Gulf nation has relied on Washington for security in exchange for the kingdom’s oil. 

That, irrespective of allegations of human rights abuses, including the March 2018 murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi.

Now, in an interview with CBS News’s 60 Minutes, Trump said that Saudi Arabia will “ultimately” join the so-called Abraham Accords, the latest after the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco normalized relations with Israel back in 2020. 

The Saudis, however, have said that any deal with Israel will need to be dependent on a clear path for a Palestinian state, alongside Israel. 

Accordingly, any such deal to join the Abraham Accords is unlikely to take form at this stage given the continuing Israeli occupation and siege of Palestinian land. 

The two leaders will more likely, however, announce the signing of a widely anticipated defense package.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Alex Moore, David Wyllie, Michael Archer, and Agnese Boffano. Our interview featured editor Halima Mansoor and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe