This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Nov. 20, 2025.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got an update on the war in Gaza, the G20 meeting in South Africa, an election in Guinea-Bissau, Mexican truckers and farmers striking and the EU-Central Asia Economic Forum in Uzbekistan. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

UN Security Council Vote on Gaza

Interview featuring Agnese Boffano

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the latest developments regarding the war in Gaza. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Agnese Boffano.

JIMMY: Hello, Agnese. 

AGNESE: Hi, Jimmy. 

JIMMY: I'm so glad you're here today. Been some new developments in Gaza and I'm hoping you can get us all caught up. So let's just jump into it. Can you give us a bit of a recap on what's going on?

AGNESE: Yes. So on Monday, the UN Security Council passed a resolution to accept Trump's 20-point Gaza ceasefire plan. It was passed with 13 votes in favor, and then China and Russia abstained. And in essence, the plan would see the creation of a so-called “Board of Peace” that would basically oversee legal authority and security issues in Gaza, as well as overseeing reconstruction efforts. And this would supposedly be headed by Trump himself. And although the exact membership of this group has not been confirmed, there have been talks about possibly the involvement of officials like, for example, former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair. And then the plan also stipulates the creation and deployment of an international stabilization force, which would not be affiliated with the UN, but would be working with Israel and Egypt, with the goal of demilitarizing Gaza and training a form of Palestinian police force. Again, which parties and countries would be involved in this are very much unclear.

JIMMY: Well, what's the latest? We seeing any steps being taken in Gaza following the vote?

AGNESE: The short answer is no. The reality on the ground in Gaza remains such that Israel retains control of the majority of the territory despite having withdrawn to the so-called Yellow Line, which was stipulated in the first phase of the 20-point plan. And then, you know, most people remain displaced, living in tents, and those who have returned have just found rubble where their homes used to be. We've had several instances where the Israeli military has accused citizens of passing this border, which an -- it's not a hard line marked on the ground, you know. And as a result, we've got the Palestinian health ministry saying that more than 260 people have been killed since the signing of the ceasefire over a month ago. And this has included multiple instances of resumption to full-scale strikes. Just today, Wednesday, as we're recording this, the Palestinian health ministry reported at least dozens of people killed and dozens others injured in strikes on Gaza City and Khan Yunis as well. And then, obviously, a very important part of the agreement is also the question about aid. But the number of aid trucks that have been entering the besieged strip has been nowhere close to meeting the demands of the population, and this, as well, has not changed since the UN vote on Monday.

JIMMY: Well, what kind of reactions have you seen to all this?

AGNESE: I'd say largely, this vote has been welcomed by most countries who have said that this was a significant turning point. I mean, it is a significant event after two years of war, but within the context of Israel-Palestine, I can't say it's been received too positively. You know, funnily enough, on the Israeli side, Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu, welcomed the passing of the resolution, but only on his English social media accounts, which perhaps signals the ongoing tension between him and members of his far-right coalition, who not only reject the idea of a Palestinian statehood, which Netanyahu himself, as well, does, but some of them have been calling for the ethnic cleansing and for the forced displacement of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip. But the government as a whole, I'd say, has welcomed the vote too, mostly in the context of it stipulating the end of Hamas governance in Gaza. Although I'm not sure exactly how realistic those expectations really are. Hamas has rejected the proposal. You know, they have said that they wouldn't demilitarize and also they've said that this ceasefire agreement, this vote, failed to meet Palestinian demands and Palestinian rights for statehood and an end to the occupation. So Hamas's argument is that, you know, a supposedly neutral peacekeeping force who were to come into Gaza and demilitarize the territory would make it party to a side. And then Palestinians as well are looking at the agreement with skepticism. You know, they're wary of the effects that yet another foreign power could have on the population and the possibility of obtaining a Palestinian state in the future. And in fact, China and Russia's argument for not voting in favor of the resolution was that they argued that the agreement was vague and it lacked any Palestinian involvement, which is true given that there hasn't really been any real involvement from Palestinians in the formation of the agreement. We had the Palestinian Authority, who's headed by Mahmoud Abbas in the West Bank. He did welcome this, and he suggested some sort of involvement that the PA might have in the future governance of Gaza. But I think most would agree that a government led by Abu Mazen (Abbas) is not even favored in the West Bank, and it would definitely not be favored in Gaza.

JIMMY: Well, I hate to put you on the spot and ask you to predict the future, but you do watch this conflict daily, so you know, considering that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

AGNESE: I think clarity, at the end of the day. I think – so Trump has said that further announcements regarding the exact composition of both the “Board of Peace” and the international stabilization force, that the announcements will be coming in the next few weeks, but the timeline remains very much unclear. You know, although the Security Council passed the agreement, it doesn't necessarily mean that, first of all, that nations would be happy to send in troops to form part of this peacekeeping force under the current circumstances in Gaza. You have, for example, the UAE, who's already said that they wouldn't send in anyone until they had a clear understanding of the framework. And then secondly, there's no guarantee that Israel would allow for the free entry of all possible forces, irrespective of where they're coming from. Netanyahu has already said that he wouldn't allow any Turkish peacekeepers, for example, to enter Gaza. And then obviously comes the issue of a Palestinian state. The language that has been used to outline the path towards Palestinian self-determination is unclear, to say the least. And the idea of the statehood itself is conditional, which means that, you know, in the agreement, it says that in the event that the Palestinian Authority is able to reform itself, then, and I quote, "conditions may be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self determination and statehood." There's no talks of borders. There's no clause on the military fully withdrawing, and there's no mention of the West Bank. So really, there's some key issues missing there. And then there's also the issue of financing the reconstruction efforts in Gaza. There's been suggestions that the funding would be backed by the World Bank. Does that mean institutions assisting in the rebuilding of Gaza could potentially go in debt? And then there are also conversations starting to arise about the legal responsibilities of Israel to pay for reconstruction. So who exactly should we put in charge of this, realistically? And I think that's another thing that this vote misses. So anyways, I think you know, there is one line of thought arguing that this is an ongoing process, and that the UN Security Council vote is at least a beginning point on which to keep, on one side, international forces engaged, and at least also see a continuation, even if slow, of the flow of aid, which is what Gaza needs the most right now. But how realistic this is in securing a long term lasting peace that is both fair and safe, I have my doubts.

JIMMY: Well, Agnese, we'll have to pause there for today, but as usual, thank you greatly for your time. You always keep such a close eye on things for us in the region and I know I appreciate it greatly. Appreciate you. Thank you.

AGNESE: Thanks, Jimmy. Thanks for having me.

G20 in Johannesburg

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: World leaders will meet in Johannesburg, South Africa, on Saturday. They’re gathering for this year’s G20 meeting.

The annual G20 summit, which started in 1999, is a chance for world leaders from the world’s largest economies as well as the European Union and African Union to meet in person.

They discuss issues related to global security, economic development and a range of other topics. 

It has evolved from a crisis-management conference to a key forum for world leaders to meet face-to-face. 

This year's attendees include member nations, as well as a number of other invited nations including Egypt, Norway and New Zealand. 

International organizations such as the World Bank and WTO will also be present. 

U.S. President Donald Trump, however, withdrew from the summit, saying the U.S. would not send representation, citing allegations of persecution against white South Africans. 

It’s a criticism flatly rejected by the country’s government as well as some prominent white South Africans. 

Now, top topics at the summit this year are expected to include global economic growth, continued inequality and food insecurity, implementation of AI and ongoing conflicts including Ukraine. 

Of course, the lack of participation from the United States, the world’s largest economy, has led to fears that the summit may be ineffective.

Guinea-Bissau election

Information compiled by Jess Fino

JIMMY: West Africa’s Guinea-Bissau will elect its new president on Sunday.

The vote is already involved in controversy. 

The main opposition party African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde, also known as the PAIGC – well, it was disqualified from running.

It’s accused of having submitted its candidacy late. 

The opposition has also claimed President Umaro Sissoco Embalo’s term in office expired in February. The Supreme Court ruled it ended in September. 

And perhaps most notably, one day before the start of the election campaign, Guinea-Bissau’s armed forces announced an alleged coup attempt involving senior officers.

Now, this will be the first time PAIGC will not run in the country’s election since its independence from Portugal in 1974. 

Embalo is expected to win reelection, which will likely cause more instability as opposition parties have refused to recognize him as president in the past. 

Of course, monitoring of the election has also had its challenges. 

An ECOWAS mission team deployed to help resolve election disputes left in March after the president reportedly threatened to expel it. 

Several media outlets had also been recently ousted from the country.

Mexican truckers and farmers national strike

Information compiled by Joe Veyera

JIMMY: Groups representing farmers and truckers in Mexico have threatened a nationwide strike on Monday.

The National Front for the Rescue of the Mexican Countryside (FNRCM) announced its plans for a day of action across the country, including road blockades, earlier this month.

It claims the government has been unwilling to address structural issues impacting farmers. 

Meanwhile, the group has found a willing partner in the Association of National Transporters (ANTAC), who want steps taken to address insecurity truckers face on the nation's highways.

As you may recall, highways and toll plazas across Mexico were blocked by protesting farmers in late October, leaving motorists stranded and traffic at a standstill.

The agriculture ministry ultimately agreed to new subsidies to support corn growers. 

Now, the group wants the attorney general's office to drop its investigation into approximately 60 farmers that participated in those blockades. 

They’re threatening to take to the streets again.

EU-Central Asia Economic Forum

Information compiled by James Morgan

JIMMY: Representatives of Central Asian countries and the European bloc will gather in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, on Wednesday.

They meet to discuss deepening ties on the backdrop of Russia’s weakening influence in the region.

This is the latest in several high-level meetings this year between EU delegations and representatives of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. 

In April, the first EU-Central Asia summit took place in Uzbekistan, during which parties agreed to further explore cooperation in security, economic, climate and energy sectors.

Now, the Central Asian nations have traditionally fostered close ties with Moscow and, while that relationship remains strong, the war in Ukraine has shifted the Kremlin’s attention away from the region. 

Western powers and China are now looking to take advantage of the situation, with Beijing, Washington and Brussels all conducting high-level meetings with Central Asian leadership this year. 

Deepening ties in Moscow’s backyard will no doubt ring alarm bells at the Kremlin, especially given that one of the EU’s stated goals is the prevention of sanctions circumvention in the region.

JIMMY: One final note for you, the podcast will be off next week. So, our next episode will be out on Dec. 4. 

In the meantime, we are a 24-7 newsroom, so be sure to follow us on X, Bluesky, or Threads where we’ll still be posting breaking news.

As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors David Wyllie, Jess Fino, Joe Veyera, and James Morgan. Our interview featured editor Agnese Boffano and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe