This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Dec. 11, 2025.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia, a general strike in Italy, elections in Libya and Chile and an ECOWAS meeting on Guinea-Bissau. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Thailand and Cambodia border clashes

Interview featuring Vivian Wang

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Vivian Wang. 

JIMMY: Hi, Vivian. 

VIVIAN: Hi, Jimmy 

JIMMY: Vivian, I'm so glad you're here. We had you on the podcast back in June, talking about Thailand and Cambodia, and here we are again, talking about Thailand and Cambodia. So I guess – sounds like things haven't exactly improved. I guess to start, what's been going on?

VIVIAN: I guess I'll start way back again for those of us who were not caught up the last time this happened. Hostility between Thailand and Cambodia goes back centuries to when they were rival empires, but this most recent borders dispute is about a century old, stems from borders drawn during French colonial rule. Then this year, in May, a clash broke out between Thai and Cambodian forces at a disputed remote area on the border and a Cambodian soldier was killed, which caused tensions to rise between the countries until it broke out into armed conflict later in July. That lasted for five days; 48 people were killed and hundreds of thousands were displaced. Thailand and Cambodia exchanged lots of tit-for-tat policies until October, when Trump brokered at a very fragile ceasefire at the ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur. And it didn't take long for that to fall apart. In November, Thailand suspended implementation of the deal after a Thai soldier was injured in a landmine explosion, and now we are here new clashes erupting at the border.

JIMMY: Well, you know, speaking of that, what's the latest? There been any new developments?

VIVIAN: I will start by answering that with saying that it's unclear who initiated the conflict. Both sides are pointing fingers at each other, but a brief clash took place on Sunday, and that was the start of the latest clashes. And that was followed by more, widespread cross-border conflict in the following days, and the scope has really expanded since the last flare-up in July. It's spread beyond areas that are around the usual disputed border temples, to as far as Trat province that's along the coast. Thai forces hit a Cambodian casino across the border in that area, and Cambodian media also said a Thai airstrike hit the center of a provincial capital about 13 miles from the border. So I do think that the scope of this conflict has expanded since the last time it erupted, and the casualty toll so far is about 14 dead, depending on who you believe, but on Thailand's side, they're saying that five soldiers have died. On the Cambodian side, nine civilians have died. And dozens are definitely injured on both sides.

JIMMY: Well, what sort of reactions to all this have you seen?

VIVIAN: Well, Thailand has said, on their side, that they're unwilling to let third party mediation and tariff threats get involved, especially since the conflict is still pretty active. But Trump, of course, is trying to get involved, since he did broker that initial ceasefire back in October. We'll see how that goes. Cambodia, on their side, has signaled some willingness for immediate bilateral talks, but says Thailand would have to show goodwill first. And on this front, they might be referring to the fact that Thailand still has 18, I believe, Cambodian prisoners detained from the last flare-up, and so that might be what they're referring to, because that's been a sticking point. And then just in general, in terms of media coverage and their reactions to this, this time around, I feel like Thailand and Cambodian -- the government and their media seem much more conscious of international attention on the conflict. This time around they're making more of an effort to up their propaganda game, making clear English statements and refuting what they see as unfair coverage from Western media. So that's been pretty interesting. And I think everyone else, in terms of like international governments, has made some kind of gesture towards saying, stop fighting, but it's not been very interesting on that front. We'll see who gets involved. China will probably get involved here.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next then?

VIVIAN: Well, top of mind right now for me is that the Southeast Asian Games are still being hosted by Thailand until December 20, which has made things very awkward for the Cambodian athletes who are there. They're no longer competing, though, as of I think yesterday, they were withdrawn, and the games are still going, but we'll see how they go. Otherwise, the conflict is likely to affect winter tourism to both Cambodia and Thailand, and it's going to definitely put pressure on these countries' trade deals with the US, which they're all working on right now. And those trade deals in the ceasefire negotiations were very much linked under Trump. So that's something to watch out for. And then another note, sort of on, like, Thai politics here, last time we talked a lot about previous Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. She was ousted by court dismissal over appearing too chummy with Cambodian leadership after that last flare-up, and so the new Prime Minister Anutin is on shaky ground. He's been elected on promises to dissolve parliament soon and other populist promises, but he's also under pressure because he knows what the last PM got ousted for, so he'll have to balance domestic nationalism, trade and security priorities, and that will be a tightrope for him to walk.

JIMMY: Well, Vivian, this is, as usual, where we'll stop for today, but thank you so much for your time and for keeping an eye on the story for us. Appreciate it.

VIVIAN: Thanks for having me on, Jimmy.

Italy general strike

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: Italy’s largest trade union has called for a general strike starting tomorrow.

It’s a protest against the 2026 budget proposed by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government. 

Meloni’s budget, which includes tax cuts, will nonetheless spearhead Italy’s planned increases in defense spending and has come under fire from Italian unions for not prioritizing social spending and public salaries enough.

Now similar strikes launched in late November triggered severe disruption to travel in Italy. 

There were dozens of domestic flights impacted along with widespread cancellations to regional rail as well as local public transportation in cities such as Rome. 

Tomorrow’s strikes threaten similar disruption across Italy, with national and regional rail services suspended all day until 9 p.m. local time.

Libya elections

Information compiled by Theresa Seiger

JIMMY: Voters will go to the polls for local council elections in nine of Libya’s municipalities on Saturday.

Saturday’s vote is part of the third group of elections for the year. 

Campaigning began Nov. 21, with more than 100,000 voter cards delivered to registered voters. 

Saturday’s vote comes months after authorities suspended council elections in 16 municipalities due to security and logistical reasons. 

The electoral process was later resumed peacefully, earning praise from the United Nations Support Mission in Libya.

Now, the vote is part of a new phase of municipal council elections that officials say are aimed at improving services and reactivating local institutions. 

It comes as officials set their sights on mid-April 2026 for presidential and parliamentary elections. 

Those elections were originally supposed to have been held in 2018, but were postponed twice. 

In order to hold the elections, officials have asked for a mechanism to support and oversee the process, which is complicated by the fact that Libya has two rival governments running the country.

Chile presidential runoff

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: Chile will vote in a runoff election on Sunday.

Voters will choose between figures from the far-right and the country’s Communist Party in the runoff election for the presidency.

No candidate won more than 50 percent of the vote in the Nov. 16 election, forcing the top two into a runoff. 

Communist Party candidate Jeannette Jara, backed by the country’s governing coalition, narrowly edged out far-right ultraconservative lawyer José Antonio Kast, who lost the 2021 presidential runoff. 

A likely consolidation of right-wing and populist votes has made Kast the favorite to win, as Jara was the sole left-wing candidate in a crowded field of conservative candidates. 

Kast, who ran a Trump-like campaign on issues including immigration, crime and smaller government, has maintained a consistent polling lead over Jara and appears poised to win.

Now, the winner is expected to be inaugurated for a five-year term in March next year. 

If Kast wins, Chile will become the latest Latin American nation to elect a right-wing populist as leader.

ECOWAS extraordinary meeting on Guinea-Bissau

Information compiled by Hua Hsieh

JIMMY: Representatives from the Western African bloc ECOWAS will meet Guinea-Bissau’s military on Sunday.

They’re expected to discuss the country’s situation after the coup.

As you may recall, on Nov. 26, Guinea-Bissau’s military seized power a day before the result was due for the contested presidential election. 

That election saw ousted president Umaro Sissoco Embaló and his main challenger Fernando Dias both claim victory. 

The African Union and West African regional bloc ECOWAS released a joint statement condemning the power grab shortly after. 

On Nov. 28, ECOWAS suspended Guinea-Bissau’s membership from all decision-making bodies, stressing the need to “restore constitutional order.” 

Then, following negotiations led by ECOWAS, Embalo was transferred to Senegal, whereas Dias was granted protection at the Nigerian embassy.

Now, ECOWAS has failed to persuade Guinea-Bissau’s military to stand down in a preliminary virtual meeting after the coup. 

Countries from the regional bloc are expected to gather again and make decisions regarding the country’s future in the upcoming conference. 

Officials have warned of possible sanctions on Guinea-Bissau, urging military officers to allow the resumption of the electoral process.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Alex Moore, Theresa Seiger, David Wyllie, and Hua Hsieh. Our interview featured editor Vivian Wang and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe