This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Jan. 8, 2026.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got the US incursion into Venezuela, elections in Benin and Uganda, protests in Nigeria, and a South Korean court ruling on the ousted president’s insurrection charges. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

US operation in Venezuela

Interview featuring Jess Fino

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the situation with Venezuela. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Jess Fino.

JIMMY: Hello, Jess.

JESS: Hi, Jimmy. How are you?

JIMMY: I’m well. I’m better now that you’re here.

JESS: Thank you.

JIMMY: Putting you on the spot and making you talk about Venezuela first thing in the morning, or for me at least, it’s afternoon there. But anyway, this situation with Venezuela has really escalated last week and I’m hoping you can get us up to speed. So, you know just to start, can you give us a bit of a recap on what’s happened?

JESS: I can try. So, in the early hours of Saturday, we started seeing reports of explosions heard in the Venezuelan capital of Caracas. Shortly after, Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro accused the US of striking the capital and other regions, in what he called at the time a “very serious” military aggression. This comes after months of escalation between the two countries, as we know, with the US carrying out deadly airstrikes on suspected drug trafficking boats in the Caribbean and in the Pacific, killing over 80 people. Less than two hours later, the US President Donald Trump confirmed military strikes in the country. He also said, I think I can say to the surprise of everyone, that Maduro and his wife had been captured and flown out of the country. During a press conference later that day, Trump said the US would be running Venezuela from then on until a proper transition could take place.

JIMMY: And what about the latest? There been any new developments?

JESS: So since then, former Vice President Delcy Rodriguez was sworn in as interim president of Venezuela, and Maduro and his wife have since appeared in court in New York, after being charged with multiple drug offenses. As it stands, we still don’t really know what role the US will have in running Venezuela, as the interim president said earlier this week no foreign agent was running the country and the Trump administration hasn't really given many details apart from the fact that "would be turning over" up to 50 million barrels of oil to the US, with will then be sold at marketplace.

JIMMY: Well, what kind of reactions to all this have you seen?

JESS: So, Jimmy, reactions have been really mixed with many countries and entities somehow conflicted in how to respond. On one hand, many support the US action of removing Maduro as the leader of Venezuela, but many others accuse the Trump administration of breaking international law by capturing a president of a foreign state, despite the Trump administration claiming that the justice department approved the military action as lawful. Meanwhile, there are worries that other countries could follow suit or even the US could repeat the action somewhere else. In general, countries like the UK said they supported a transition of power in Venezuela, as they did not see Maduro as the country’s legitimate president anyway, but added that international law should be upheld. In terms of the neighboring countries, Latin American nations including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Uruguay issued a statement expressing their "concern and firm rejection of the military actions carried out in Venezuela" by the U.S. Colombia moved troops to its border [with Venezuela] straight after it happened to prevent clashes and potential inflow of refugees from the country, and Brazil as well increased its military presence around the border.

JIMMY: Well, I hate to ask you this next one and make you foresee the future, but you know, what do you think folks ought be watching for next then?

JESS: Yeah, it’s difficult to tell. Well, we are carefully watching for more protests both pro and against the Maduro regime and a possible formal declaration of war against the US. Right now, a lot could still happen, like the closure of the entire airspace, new airstrikes or more US action somewhere else, as Trump has threatened Colombia and resurfaced his threats of taking Greenland from Denmark, as we know. The situation in neighboring countries is particularly interesting as Colombia and Brazil have been pretty vocal against the US actions last weekend, which is likely to lead to rising tensions between their leaders and the US administration.

JIMMY: Well, Jess, we’ll pause there for today, but I suspect this won’t be the last time we talk about Venezuela. But until then, thank you so much for your time and for keeping an eye on things for us. Appreciate you. 

JESS: Thanks, Jimmy. See you soon.

Benin parliamentary election

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: Voters across Benin will vote Sunday in the country’s parliamentary elections.

It’ll be a closely-watched election considering the recent surprise coup attempt.

Benin, often held up as an example of democratic stability in West Africa despite recent political tensions, was rocked by an attempted coup by a group of rebel military officers in December. 

Order was restored hours after a group of soldiers seized the country’s state broadcaster and declared they had taken control of the country amid reports of gunfire in the capital. 

Military support from Nigeria and other ECOWAS members including Ghana and Ivory Coast helped quell the insurrection. 

It followed a string of eight West African coups in five years. 

Pro-government parties hold control in the country’s National Assembly following the 2023 election, with all 109 seats up for election on Sunday.

Now, parties loyal to President Patrice Talon are expected to retain a majority in parliament with the process closely watched for any irregularities. 

Talon, who is serving a second term as head of state, does not intend to seek reelection in the country’s upcoming presidential election, scheduled for April.

Nationwide protest over Nigeria’s tax reform

Information compiled by James Morgan

JIMMY: The National Association of Nigerian Students has called for nationwide protests on Wednesday.

They condemn controversial tax reforms that came into effect at the beginning of the year. 

The organization has accused the federal government of ignoring public concerns and constitutional processes and is calling for a suspension of the reforms.

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu resolved to push ahead with the reforms despite criticism over alleged inconsistencies between the version of the bill passed by parliament and the copies later distributed. 

The reform stipulates, among other measures, the consolidation of more than 70 separate taxes into a unified framework and the introduction of progressive rates for income tax. 

The government argues changes could lift non-oil tax revenue by about 30 percent over the medium term, but opposition have framed the reform as punitive and disproportionately impacting a population already struggling with the cost of living.

Now, the protest on Jan. 14 is likely to draw large numbers as people come to grips with what the tax reforms mean in practice. 

There is a high risk of escalation especially in urban areas where unemployment and high living costs are more apparent.

Uganda presidential election

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: General elections will be held in Uganda next Thursday to elect the country’s president and parliament.

Seeking re-election to a seventh term is President Yoweri Museveni, Africa’s fourth-longest-ruling head of state who has previously scrapped age and term limits in his rule dating back to 1986. 

Facing off against Museveni will be singer and activist Bobi Wine, who lost the 2021 election to Museveni before claiming widespread electoral fraud. 

Though initially barred from running by Uganda’s electoral commission, Bobi Wine has since been confirmed as a candidate.

Now, Museveni’s government has moved to crack down on media coverage of anti-government protests and have detained opposition supporters in the run up to the election. 

That, after the deadly protests coinciding with the last election in 2021. 

Concerns also exist that Ugandan authorities will cut internet access during next week’s elections in order to prevent Bobi Wine’s supporters from mobilizing, though officials have denied these plans. 

Museveni’s government has also moved in recent years to pass draconian laws targeting Uganda’s LGBTQ+ community, threatening life imprisonment or even the death penalty for certain same-sex sexual activity.

South Korea court to rule on ousted president’s insurrection charges

Information compiled by Hua Hsieh

JIMMY: The Seoul Central District Court is set to deliver the verdict for former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol next Friday.

Yoon became the first sitting South Korea president to be arrested in January last year, following his short-lived martial law declaration in December of 2024. 

The former president was impeached by the parliament and removed from office after the Constitutional Court upheld the parliament’s decision. 

The ousted president was charged with leading an insurrection by declaring martial law in the absence of war or national emergency. 

Several former cabinet members and senior government officials were charged alongside Yoon for conspiring in the insurrection.

Now, insurrection is one of the few criminal charges from which a South Korean president does not have immunity. If convicted, the former president could face life imprisonment or even the death penalty.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors David Wyllie, James Morgan, Alex Moore, and Hua Hsieh. Our interview featured editor Jess Fino and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe