This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Jan. 15, 2026

In this week’s forecast we’ve got the deadly protests in Iran, an election in Portugal, the Davos World Economic Forum, Japan restarting a nuclear plant and a US Supreme Court hearing concerning the Federal Reserve. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Iran protests

Interview featuring Ahmed Namatalla

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the deadly protests underway in Iran. For more on that I’ve got the lead for our Middle East and Africa coverage, Ahmed Namatalla.

JIMMY: Hello, Ahmed. 

AHMED: Hi, Jimmy. 

JIMMY: Thanks for your time today. It's -- it's been a pretty crazy week, not the least of which is this situation in Iran, and I'm hoping you can get us up to speed. So, can you start, maybe give us a bit of a recap on the situation?

AHMED: In late December, anti-government protests broke out in several Iranian cities, including major cities, such as the capital Tehran, although numbers there were smaller than in other cities, according to videos that started to come out of these demonstrations. At first, the government ignored those crowds and then proceeded to crack down – quite lethally – leading to the point where we are today. It's unclear what really triggered these protests. The grievances are very similar to past protest actions in Iran, which have taken place, really since the revolution in 1979, on an intermittent basis, but we can see them becoming more frequent in years starting at around 1999, 2000. And the government has always reacted with force, including lethal force, and we saw that recently in 2022-23, when the death of a young Iranian woman in police custody sparked unrest. Like I said, grievances remain much the same: bad economy, restrictions on rights, and the lack of opportunity. None of this is really new. What's different this time around, though, is the increasing and very public support for the protesters by the US and Israel.

JIMMY: And what's the latest? Any new development?

AHMED: The latest is everyone is really on watch for a potential US attack on Iran. No one really knows whether it's going to happen, but we're seeing tangible measures on the ground, with countries issuing – including the US – issuing advisories for their citizens to leave Iran, even surrounding countries. We're seeing travel disruptions, flight cancelations. We're also seeing possible military movements. With today being Wednesday, the 14th of January, the UK and the US both reducing their presence in a military base in Qatar, possibly to take precautions against retaliation by Iran if the US were to attack. But again, we're not really sure if that's going to happen. US President Trump has threatened to take "strong actions" in Iran, and that threat came – the most recent of those threats came as recent as yesterday in response to Iran killing protesters, which there's documented evidence that security forces of Iran have killed hundreds of protesters, according to credible human rights organizations that verify each individual fatality. Having said that, just today, President Trump appears to have backed off that threat, because he spoke in the Oval Office – the President said that the killing in Iran has "stopped." He said that he's hearing that the killing has stopped, which would eliminate one of the conditions that he has set before for an attack on Iran. So it really is not clear whether the US is going to go ahead with a strike on Iran, but we are seeing countries, and companies, and governments take tangible actions on the ground.

JIMMY: Speaking of that, what kind of, well, what kind of reactions have you seen to all this?

AHMED: Well, let's start inside Iran, where today there appears to have been very few, if any, protests on the ground, and I'm speaking specifically about Wednesday the 14th. There could be any number of reasons for this, and most notably, pro-government rallies took place in Tehran and other parts of the country as the government buried members of the security forces that were killed. It could have been that protesters decided to stay at home for their own safety. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Externally, we've seen a lot of statements of condemnation against the Iranian government's response, while the Iranian government remains defiant and threatens to retaliate if attacked by striking US and Israeli interests in the region.

JIMMY: Well, I know this is a dangerous question, considering how fast things may change, but you know, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

AHMED: What we should be looking for, and what we're monitoring for at Factal, really, is just down to any signs of the start of a US attack on Iran. We're at that point now where both sides have kind of dug in their grounds. They've made all their statements, and it really is unclear who is going to press forward and who's going to try and back down. Following US military action in Venezuela, and the forced removal of that country's president, the US has shown that it is willing to take extraordinary actions that don't necessarily align with international law. The president himself has been clear and said, in an interview following that military action, that he's not concerned with international law. On the other hand, Iran's government has a long track record of violating the human rights of its own population and using force to crack down on dissent. Potential US action in Iran may not necessarily have much to do with human rights, but nevertheless, if taken it would have wide impact on the region considering how entrenched the Iranian government has been for over 40 years now, and the alliances that it has established, and the proxy wars it has fought. This could really change the face of the region if the US tries to completely overthrow the government of Iran. We're also monitoring closely how the rest of the world, particularly the West, deals with the exiled crown prince of Iran. He's the son of the country's former dictator before the current theocracy overthrew that king. His name is Reza Pahlavi and he lives in the US. He has not been in Iran for decades and he has expressed support for anti-government protests in the past. This time around, though, he has tried to garner more attention, which he appears to have done, by securing interviews with prominent media outlets in the US and Europe, where he claims – and he does this on social media as well – he claims to have a large support base inside Iran. He claims, at times, to be directing the protests on the ground, and he claims that he's ready to take over leadership of the country. It's worth noting that none of those claims are supported by evidence. It's also worth noting that we've seen many of the protest chants not only go against the current government of Iran, but against him and his family as well. So Iranians have not forgotten the era of the Shah, and some of the protesters appear to want a clean break with both. Having said that, there are reports that he's met with US and European officials, and it remains to be seen what kind of a role, if any, he will have in the future of Iran, if this latest effort to topple the government is successful.

JIMMY: Well Ahmed, we'll have to pause there for today, but thanks so much for your time and for keeping such a close eye on things for us. Appreciate it.

AHMED: Thanks, Jimmy.

Portuguese presidential elections

Information compiled by Jess Fino

JIMMY: Portugal will elect its new president on Sunday in a highly contested vote.

Current President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is term-limited and stepping down after 10 years in office.

There are 11 candidates running to replace de Sousa, including five leading the polls as possible candidates for a second round. 

If no candidate wins more than 50% of votes cast, the election will head to a runoff tentatively set for Feb. 8. 

Now, the presidency has enjoyed a good relationship with the government for years. After all, de Sousa was also a member of the Social-Democratic Party. But a change in president could change that rapport. 

Among the frontrunners in the polls is leader of the far-right Chega party, André Ventura.

If elected, Ventura would prove to be a disruptive head of state, as his party is currently the main opposition. It is also unclear who would replace him in Parliament.

Other frontrunners include João Cotrim Figueiredo, a member of the European Parliament from the pro-business Liberal Initiative party, former naval chief Henrique Gouveia e Melo, and Socialist Party-supported António José Seguro. 

Davos World Economic Forum

Information compiled by James Morgan

JIMMY: Leaders from governments, businesses and civil society will arrive in Davos, Switzerland, on Monday. 

They’re meeting for the 56th annual World Economic Forum, which comes amid rising global uncertainty driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s punitive trade tariffs, military intervention in Venezuela and threats of seizing Greenland. 

The Forum's 2026 Global Risks Report named geoeconomic confrontation as the top risk for the coming year and has dubbed the forum “A Spirit of Dialogue” aiming to provide an “impartial platform” to attendees. 

A total of 64 heads of state or government are expected to attend, with the United States reportedly sending its largest-ever delegation headed by Trump. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will also be in attendance and reporting has suggested that a major $800 billion reconstruction deal with the US could be reached during the course of the forum.

Now, World Economic Foreign chief executive Borge Brende said the forum is taking place “against the most complex geopolitical backdrop since 1945” and it is likely that all eyes will be on the American president to see what tone he strikes during proceedings. 

Ukraine’s allies, known as the “coalition of the willing,” are expected to meet with both Trump and Zelenskyy at the forum in the hope of obtaining U.S. backing for security guarantees for Kyiv.

Japan to restart world’s largest nuclear power plant

Information compiled by Vivian Wang

JIMMY: Japanese authorities will resume operations at the world’s largest nuclear power plant on Tuesday.

The Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant has been offline since the 2011 earthquake and tsunami that triggered the Fukushima disaster, ultimately leading Japanese officials to shutter operations at 54 reactors. 

In the 15 years since, just 14 of the 33 reactors that remained operable have been brought back online, and Kashiwazaki-Kariwa will mark the first operated by TEPCO, the same operator of the Fukushima plant that melted down in 2011.

Now, the plan to restart the plant can be situated within the context of the Japanese government’s plan to boost nuclear energy to roughly 20 percent of the country’s energy intake by 2040. 

The plant and TEPCO have both faced scrutiny in the past, with the plant being shuttered for nearly two years in 2007 after a large earthquake triggered fires and a minor radiation leak. 

And in 2021, regulators barred TEPCO from restarting the plant due to safety breaches before ultimately lifting the ban.

U.S. Supreme Court to hear Trump's bid to fire Fed's Lisa Cook

Information compiled by Theresa Seiger

JIMMY: The US Supreme Court will hear arguments on Wednesday on President Trump’s effort to remove Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve’s board of governors.

Trump announced Cook’s removal in a letter shared on social media in August, pointing to allegations of mortgage fraud that she has called “flimsy” and “unproven.” 

A federal appeals court halted Cook’s firing in September, saying that it would likely violate the 1913 Federal Reserve Act. 

The Supreme Court subsequently declined a Trump administration request to pause the court ruling, allowing Cook to stay in office pending the high court’s decision. 

Cook was nominated to the board by then-President Joe Biden and was sworn in for a 14-year term in 2023.

Now, Wednesday’s arguments come as Trump steps up pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, which he insists are not being lowered fast enough. 

On Sunday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced that the Justice Department opened a criminal investigation against him. 

Powell said it was “a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on [the board’s] best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president.” 

Since taking office, Trump has pushed aggressively to exert more control over independent agencies like the Fed.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors Jess Fino, James Morgan, Vivian Wang and Theresa Seiger. Our interview featured editor Ahmed Namatalla and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe