This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Jan. 22, 2026.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got Trump’s threats toward Greenland, Australia Day, India’s summit with the EU, Bangladesh resuming flights with Pakistan and a US government funding deadline. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Trump threatens Greenland’s sovereignty

Interview featuring Owen Bonertz

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at US President Trump’s demands to control Greenland. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Owen Bonertz.

JIMMY: Hi Owen, 

OWEN: Hey, Jimmy. How are we doing? 

JIMMY: We are well, thanks for being here. I saw you were digging into Greenland this week and I'm looking forward to you getting us caught up on the situation. So, as usual, can you start by giving us a bit of a recap on what's gone down? 

OWEN  Yeah. So obviously the Trump administration has been pushing an idea of annexing Greenland, and this is something he first said in 2019. It wasn't taken very seriously at the time. It was kind of thought to just be classic Trump bluster, but as he's been elected a second time, he's really, really ramped it up. There's been a lot of posts on Truth Social, and really, since the capture of Nicolas Maduro in the beginning of January, him and other Republican figures have been making it clear that they're very serious about this. They're releasing plans about the idea of purchasing the island for some sum of trillions of dollars that would then be broken down into large cash payments to each individual resident. And crucially, he's been threatening tariffs on the European powers who have kind of come out in support of Greenland and said, no, this is Danish territory, this is, you know, a semi-autonomous place within Denmark. And so in response to that, he's said he's going to put a 10% tariff on these European countries, including France, the UK, Denmark, of course, and Europe has responded with their own threats of an increased trade war. Most notably, they're talking about using something called the anti-coercion instrument, which would be kind of like targeted sanctions against individuals or companies that they deem to be the most threatening to Greenland's sovereignty. And more immediately, you know, Europe and the United States have been going back and forth on the trade issue all year. Over the summer, they came to a new EU-US trade deal, which is just about to be ratified in the European Parliament, but many European -- EU MPs, I should say -- are now stepping back and saying, no, we shouldn't ratify this because of the Greenland issue.

JIMMY: And what about the latest? There been any new developments? 

OWEN: Well, actually, yes. Just a little while ago Trump posted on his Truth Social that he had had a meeting with the Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutte, and Trump says that they’ve reached some sort of framework for, like, a future deal with respect to Greenland. He didn’t give too many details, though. He said that the tariffs he had talked about, the 10% increase that was set to go into effect on February 1, won’t be imposed. Still, some of the leaders from the EU who had planned this kind of emergency summit about the Greenland situation are still going to be meeting tomorrow to discuss this whole situation. And you know, in addition to all the talk, some of the European countries, as well as Canada, actually, have deployed a very, very small amount of troops to Greenland. Within Greenland, this idea is very, very unpopular. According to polling, about 6% of Greenland residents support American annexation. It's also worth noting that the population of Greenland is majority Inuit, rather than majority Danish, although there is a Danish minority that lives there. And there's been a lot of protest, specifically in front of the US Consulate in Nuuk, Greenland. There has been a lot of, kind of, back channel negotiations going on, particularly this week at the World Economic Forum Meeting in Davos, Switzerland. And I think, something that's generally been taking place since Trump got into office, but has specifically ramped up because of this, is a desire of the European and other Western powers to diversify their trade. Just in the past month, we've seen a trade agreement between the EU and the Mercosur countries -- that being Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay -- which is something that these two, kind of, power blocs have been trying to make happen for 25 years, but now, with the US throwing up these sort of tariff barriers and signaling to the world that they don't want a policy of free trade anymore, Europe is trying to diversify where their exports go. Same is true for Canada. Just in the past week, we've seen a major kind of a trade detente, I would say, between Canada and China. Canada has agreed to take in a bunch of Chinese electric vehicles, while at the same time, China is going to finally start taking in Canadian canola exports. So the biggest place where we're really seeing this happen is in trade.

JIMMY: Well, you've mentioned some of the reactions, but there any other notable reactions you've seen to this?

OWEN: Well, obviously the Danish are furious about this idea. The Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen was in power in 2019 when the idea was first floated, but she's released many statements, kind of reaffirming that this is Danish territory, and a lot of kind of outside observers are interested in how Greenland might play into the US's Arctic strategy in the future. So this is definitely something that Russia is watching, especially as the polar ice caps kind of melt, and more and more trade is actually going through the Arctic Ocean every single summer. There's significant strategic value in Greenland, and it's not hard to imagine a future where the US and Russia are going to war or spying on each other, kind of over the North Pole from Greenland to Siberia. I think US mining interests are extremely interested in what's going to happen. There are significant mineral deposits on Greenland, but it's kind of so isolated and lacks any sort of export infrastructure, so actually tapping into those at the moment is really, like, economically not viable. And if it was viable, the Danish and the Europeans would have already been doing it. But, I think what Trump is kind of hoping is that, you know, global climate change will get to a point where enough of the ice melts on Greenland -- right now, it's about 80% covered in ice -- that accessing these minerals becomes something that's viable, specifically, like the rare earth minerals that are really vital for making electronics, and that are something that China kind of has a bit of a choke hold on at the moment.

JIMMY: Well, I know you can't read Trump's mind or anything, but what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

OWEN: Well, I guess first of all, we need to see more details about whatever this framework is that he’s arrived at with NATO. You know, like I said, we’re not sure if the tariffs are fully cancelled or if they’re just on hold or if there will be an entirely new EU-US trade agreement. I’m sure there will be some details about the US getting involved militarily in Greenland, maybe stationing troops, more troops, up there. Regardless, I think the whole situation is at least partially an excuse for the US to escalate their trade war with the European Union and I think that annexing new territory in the Western Hemisphere is clearly something that Trump is fixated on, whether that be his threats made about retaking the Panama Canal or his quote, unquote, "Donroe Doctrine" in Latin America -- you know, pushing regime change in Venezuela, as well as threatening to do it in Cuba. It's clear to me that Trump wants to leave his second term with a new chunk of land that he can call the United States. I don't know how feasible the Greenland dream really is. You know, like I said, he's been making these statements about purchasing it for trillions of dollars. Well, where are these trillions of dollars going to come from, especially from an administration that, you know, claims to be fiscally conservative and wanting to cut American spending? So I think it's unlikely that, you know, any serious offer is put forward, especially given the fact that the Europeans have been so ready to stonewall it, and I think two, three years down the line, we're going to see more trade deals between the EU and other major economies. They're already negotiating a new one with India, as well as the UAE. So I think really the main consequence of this is kind of just going to be driving a rift between the United States and the rest of NATO, but the idea of annexing more territory in the United States as a whole is, like I said, clearly, something that Trump really wants to do as part of his legacy, and if it doesn't happen in Greenland, it could happen more seriously somewhere else.

JIMMY: Well, Owen, we'll have to pause there for today, but thank you so much for your time. Always appreciate you being here and getting us up to speed. Thanks. 

OWEN: My pleasure.

Australia Day

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: Additional protective measures will be in place in Sydney on Monday.

That, as Australians celebrate their national holiday in the wake of December’s deadly Bondi Beach attack.

Stringent security measures are being put in place following the December gun attack on Bondi Beach. 

As you may recall, that’s when two gunmen targeted a Hanukkah event and killed 15 people. 

A protest ban, enacted in the wake of the attack, has been extended for an additional two weeks and will continue through the holiday. 

New South Wales Police say the geographic scope of the ban has been limited and will include areas of Sydney’s eastern suburbs and the Central Business District. 

Police have confirmed a protest by the First Nations community will be permitted to go ahead with additional officers deployed.

Now, visitors to the Australia Day Live concert in Sydney will have to pass through airport-style security with checkpoints, bag inspections and scanners, and will not be allowed to carry a number of prohibited items. 

Police said a variety of units including canine and mounted units will be present, and officers will have enhanced firepower.

EU-India summit in New Delhi

Information compiled by Vivian Wang

JIMMY: European Union leaders Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa are expected to visit India for its 77th Republic Day celebrations on Tuesday.

The visit and key summit talks come as India and the EU near a historic trade agreement.

India and the EU have been negotiating a free trade agreement for nearly two decades, but recent trade instability due to U.S. President Trump’s tariffs has sparked new urgency among global powers to secure free trade. 

Just last week, the EU signed its largest-ever trade agreement with the South American bloc Mercosur. 

Now, according to Von der Leyen, if finalized, the EU-India deal could transform the global economy, creating a market of two billion people. 

Free trade agreements have attracted controversy among domestic producers in both India and the EU, however, triggering farmers’ protests in both India and Europe.

Bangladesh to resume direct flights with Pakistan

Information compiled by James Morgan

JIMMY: Biman Bangladesh Airlines confirmed they’ll restart their route between Dhaka and Karachi next Thursday. 

The move will restore an air link that has been suspended since 2012.

The new service will operate twice weekly on Thursdays and Saturdays on a trial basis until the end of March with potential for expansion. 

During the suspension, travelers between the two countries were forced to seek indirect routes usually through the Gulf hubs of Dubai and Doha. 

The airline said the resumption of the route “will significantly improve connectivity between Bangladesh and Pakistan, supporting business travel, tourism, and family reunions.”

Now, the move does come amid a warming of relations between Pakistan and Bangladesh following the ouster of the latter’s former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in 2024. 

Since then, trade between the two countries has increased and cultural links have expanded, with figures from the State Bank of Pakistan showing bilateral trade increasing by 20 percent to around $865 million over the last fiscal year. 

Pakistan will likely continue to expand links with Bangladesh, capitalizing on the deterioration of ties between Delhi and Dhaka after Hasina fled there. 

Pakistan’s military has said discussions are also underway for a potential military pact to supply Bangladesh with JF-17 Thunder fighter jets.

US government funding deadline

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: Another major U.S. government funding deadline is approaching next Friday.

This one follows the longest government shutdown in U.S. history late last year. 

That lasted 42 days before being ended by a legislative package that funded some government functions through September 2026 but others through Jan. 30.

This forces Congress to once again come together to pass funding packages. 

A bipartisan $1.2 trillion funding agreement was released earlier this week with the hopes of averting another prolonged shutdown, though votes in both chambers remain a looming hurdle.

Now, perhaps the most contentious sticking point of the latest funding bill will be Department of Homeland Security expenditures given the department’s purview over Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE, as it’s commonly referred to as. 

In the wake of the fatal ICE shooting of Renee Good in Minneapolis, Congressional Democrats have worked to use the impending stopgap to increase scrutiny and oversight of ICE as its operations sprawl in major American cities. 

Despite the agency already having been appropriated $75 billion by President Donald Trump’s signature on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Democrats are seeking to tie the additional funding to oversight measures such as body cameras.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors David Wyllie, Vivian Wang, James Morgan and Alex Moore. Our interview featured editor Owen Bonertz and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe