This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Jan. 29, 2026.

In this week’s forecast we’ve got the shooting and protests in Minneapolis, South Korea and Japan’s defense ministers meeting, an election in Costa Rica, Colombia’s president visiting the White House, and the Winter Olympics in Italy. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Minneapolis shooting

Interview featuring Joe Veyera

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the situation in Minneapolis, where protests continue in the wake of a second fatal shooting by federal agents. For more on that I’ve got the lead for our North America coverage, Joe Veyera.

JIMMY: Hey, Joe, 

JOE: Hey, Jimmy. How's it going? 

JIMMY: Goes well, and especially well, since you're here with us now. I guess let's just jump right into this thing. It's been a pretty crazy few weeks in Minneapolis, and I'm hoping you can get us all caught up on what we need to know. So I guess to start, can you give us a bit of a recap on what went down recently?

JOE: Well, crazy does feel like a bit of an understatement. So last Saturday, 37-year-old ICU nurse Alex Pretti was shot and killed by Border Patrol agents in South Minneapolis, and this took place blocks away from where Renee Good was fatally wounded by federal agents earlier this month. So this was the second fatal shooting involving federal agents in the month of January in Minneapolis. Pretti was armed, but he did have the appropriate permits to carry and eyewitness videos contradict the claims that were made in the immediate aftermath by federal authorities that officers had fired defensively. The videos show an agent appeared to pull a handgun from Pretti's waist area before the first shot was fired. This incident sparked a new round of protests, both locally and across the US. And in the past couple of days, we've seen the president say he's had productive calls with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, and he has dispatched borders czar Tom Homan to the state.

JIMMY: And what about the latest? You seen any new developments?

JOE: Yes, so on Wednesday, the two officers that fired the fatal shots were placed on administrative leave – and that's standard protocol – but the fact that it took several days to happen is a bit unusual. Meanwhile, the president said he'll review the federal investigation into the latest shooting. Finally, we now have a government shutdown looming on Friday night. Democrats say they will not vote for the funding package unless Department of Homeland Security funding is stripped. Doing this would require house reapproval, and that chamber is on recess this week, so we're likely to see a partial government shutdown come Friday night. This is a vote in the Senate where you need 60 votes to avoid a filibuster. Republicans currently hold 53 seats.

JIMMY: Well, what kind of reactions have you seen to all this? You know, not just, you know, in Minneapolis, but elsewhere.

JOE: Democrats have universally condemned the incident, and the main response is now that we have this shutdown threat. And the range of actions that Democrats want taken here really vary. Some have called to abolish ICE entirely; others want funding cuts, and others still want more training for immigration enforcement officers. The overarching agreement we see here is that the status quo is unacceptable. We're also seeing some bipartisan scrutiny here, with a handful of Republican lawmakers calling for a deeper look into federal immigration tactics, but there's no real call for defunding on the GOP side.

JIMMY: Well, I know it's going to be a hard one to answer, but what do you think folks ought to be watching for next then?

JOE: Then there are so many different factors at play right now. Obviously, we already touched on the looming potential shutdown, and we'll see what happens over the next 48 to 72 hours there. Another thing to keep a close eye on – a federal judge has yet to rule on a suit brought by the state of Minnesota and the cities of Minneapolis and St Paul that claim the deployment of immigration agents is in violation of the 10th Amendment. And for those of you who don't know, the 10th Amendment reserves to the states all of the powers not explicitly granted to the federal government in the Constitution. Another big question – where exactly does the administration go from here? We saw the Border Patrol commander at large, Greg Bovino, reportedly ousted from his role earlier this week in the wake of this shooting, and that's partially why we see border czar Tom Homan in Minnesota now. We've also seen at least two Republican senators, North Carolina's Thom Tillis and Alaska's Lisa Murkowski, suggest that Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem should resign. House Democrats are trying to push impeachment that seems unlikely to go anywhere. And then finally, does the administration look to move extended operations to a different city, perhaps one with a Republican governor or leadership that would be more amenable to those operations. And then finally, continued protest every night in Minneapolis outside the Whipple Federal Building, that's where immigration proceedings have been taking place.

JIMMY: Well, Joe, we'll have to pause there, but thanks so much for your time and for keeping an eye on things for us as always. Appreciate you.

JOE: Thanks for having me.

South Korea and Japan defense ministers meet

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: Defense ministers from South Korea and Japan will meet on Friday. They’re planning to discuss a range of issues, including further cooperation and regional security.

The meeting will be held at a naval base in the Japanese defense minister’s hometown of Yokosuka. The two are expected to focus on greater defense cooperation between the two nations as well as the threat from North Korea. 

Of course, this comes following a recent meeting between Japan’s new prime minister and South Korea’s president that saw an easing of traditional tensions and even led to a viral video of the two as they played the drums together. 

Japan is seeking enhanced cooperation with South Korea as it navigates a diplomatic spat with China that has worsened over recent months, exacerbated partly by what China calls increased Japanese militarism.

Now, the bilateral meeting comes after South Korea’s defense minister met with a senior U.S. defense official to discuss continued defense cooperation amid reports of increased tariffs. 

South Korea earned praise from U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in November for Seoul’s plan to increase defense spending to 3.5 percent of GDP. 

Japan also increased its spending to a record level in December’s defense budget request. 

This is likely the last meeting of its kind before Japan’s general election scheduled for late February which could see a new defense minister.

Costa Rica general election

Information compiled by Michael Archer

JIMMY: Costa Rican voters may elect the country’s president on Sunday. They’ll also pick two vice presidents and 57 members of the legislative assembly.

General elections are held in Costa Rica every four years, overseen by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. 

This year, 20 candidates are vying for the presidency. 

The winning candidate must reach at least 40 percent of the vote or a runoff election will be held on April 15. 

Laura Fernandez, former chief of staff of current President Rodrigo Chaves, has emerged as the current frontrunner. 

Chaves can’t run in this election as the country’s constitution bars a president from serving in consecutive four-year terms.

Now, in 2022, a mere 4 percent of Costa Ricans regarded security issues as a top concern. 

This year, about 40 percent of the population regard security as a key issue. 

Organized crime and drug trafficking have fueled these concerns, with the country recording the eighth highest homicide rate in Latin America in 2024. 

According to polling, between 43 and 45 percent of voters remain undecided, possibly indicating a highly contested race. 

Voter turnout is another key issue – electoral authorities are encouraging participation this year after at least 40 percent of the population abstained from voting in 2022.

Colombian president visits White House

Information compiled by Theresa Seiger

JIMMY: Colombian President Gustavo Petro and U.S. President Donald Trump are set to meet on Tuesday at the White House.

Trump announced the meeting on social media earlier this month, days after he threatened military action against Colombia following the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas. 

Last Friday, Petro said conversations with the United States “are going well” amid preparations for the in-person meeting.

That marks a significant departure from earlier this year, when the U.S. State Department threatened to revoke Petro’s visa following his criticism of U.S. foreign policy during a rally in New York.

Now, officials in Colombia and the U.S. have framed the upcoming meeting as a shift from recent tensions toward a focus on “common priorities.” 

In a statement last week, a U.S. State Department spokesperson said that Trump and Petro will address issues of “mutual importance,” highlighting shared priorities including “commercial ties, regional security cooperation, and counternarcotics efforts.” 

Earlier this week, Petro called the upcoming meeting in Washington a “key, fundamental and decisive” one.

Winter Olympics begin in Milan

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: The 2026 Winter Olympic Games start next Friday in Italy.

The Italians will host the Games at sites spanning across the north of the country with Milan and Cortina d’Ampezzo serving as the main host cities. 

The Games will be the most spread-out in the history of the Winter Games, with other cities like Verona also playing host. 

Now, potentially coming into play will be a variety of security concerns. 

Those include the risk posed by drones or sabotage to critical infrastructure like what targeted French rail infrastructure in the run-up to the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics. 

Cybersecurity concerns exist as well, with industry experts warning of the risk of incidents spanning from denial-of-service attacks to nation state-linked espionage attempts. 

And of course, climate change has already posed a unique challenge for these Games, with organizers at Italy’s Alpine venues having to increasingly resort to artificial snow for mountain sports.

That, despite the energy-intensiveness of the practice and the risks posed by the icier and faster artificial snow. 

Lastly, the risk of protest remains ever-present, with locals pushing back against overtourism as well as environmental sustainability concerns. 

Other potential protest catalysts include the war in Gaza and the role of U.S. ICE agents in event security.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors David Wyllie, Michael Archer, Theresa Seiger, and Alex Moore. Our interview featured editor Joe Veyera and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

Copyright © 2026 Factal. All rights reserved.

Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe