This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Feb. 5, 2026

In this week’s forecast, we’ve got militant attacks in Pakistan, an election in Japan, a court hearing for Bangladesh's ousted prime minister, a general strike in Argentina, and US immigration enforcement officials testifying before Congress.

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Militant attacks in Balochistan, Pakistan

Interview featuring Awais Ahmad

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the deadly militant attacks recently in Pakistan. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Awais Ahmad.

JIMMY: Hello, Awais. 

AWAIS: Hi, Jimmy, thanks for having me. 

JIMMY: Thanks for being here. Always look forward to having you here; looking forward to hearing from you today about these rebel attacks in Pakistan. So can you give us just a, you know, recap on what exactly went down?

AWAIS: For sure. So on Friday, January 30, the Pakistani military carried out some security operations in the province of Balochistan, and it left about 41 militants killed in the Panjgur and Harnai districts. A day later, the Balochistan Liberation Army, which is a separatist group in the region, carried out attacks across nine districts – and these were coordinated and happened simultaneously, or nearly simultaneously. They targeted security installations, including a paramilitary headquarters in Quetta, which is the province's capital. They also carried out attacks in Gwadar, which is a major port city. The attack left more than 50 people killed, including more than 20 soldiers, and as many as 36 civilians. According to the officials, they – the attacks included gunfire, attempted suicide bombings, and also included militants briefly blocking roads in urban areas. According to some reports, they dressed up in normal civilian clothing and entered buildings and then opened fire there. And in the aftermath of the attack, the Pakistani army carried out more security operations that have left nearly 200 militants killed at this point. So it was a major province-wide security operation that they carried out.

JIMMY: And what about the latest, there been any new developments?

AWAIS: So as the operation, security operations, kind of died down, authorities have imposed a one-month ban on public gatherings across the province. And they had also, during the attacks, had banned mobile internet services in Quetta as well. So those are kind of the latest updates around that. We're not seeing any newer fighting at this time that's linked to these coordinated attacks, but that ban remains in place and signals just sort of how seriously they're looking out for any other newer activity in the province.

JIMMY: Well, what kind of reactions to the violence have you seen?

AWAIS: So the United States condemned the attacks in an official statement. What's really interesting, in recent times we've been seeing the Pakistani army, in official statements and also local media, using anti-India language to describe a militant activity in the region. They blame India for backing, sort of, these militants. But after these coordinated attacks, we saw the interior minister of Pakistan also echo the same sentiment, and this led to India releasing a statement which categorically denied any involvement in the attacks. So while we've seen this, like, uptick in sort of the inflammatory anti-India language, it was kind of interesting to see this time it reached the level of, like, an official, like national-level politician, just saying that outright, which I think also speaks to sort of the growing rift between the two countries since they exchanged cross-border fire last year in May. That's kind of been the most interesting, I think, reaction that we've seen to this. And internally, also there, there have been condemnations and calls for, you know like, more, increased security operations across the province.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

AWAIS: Honestly, I think it's really – it's really hard to say how much more of these kinds of attacks we'll be seeing anytime soon. Since 2021 the BLA has had sort of a resurgence. It's an organization that was – or like a militant organization – that was formed in 2000, but it built off of previous insurgency movements that go back decades. And since their resurgence in 2021, we’ve seen them become more organized, have better operational capacity. And since these attacks also target a province which is resource rich, the region remains kind of a hot spot for any type of militant activity, especially when it comes to the BLA. And since 2021, or since 2022 really, like every year, we've seen similar large-scale attacks that kind of tend to happen once a year or once every few months. This included a series of similar attacks in August of 2024 and then also a train hijacking in March 2025. And so I'm anticipating more attacks. Like I said, this is a province that is host to a lot of international, sort of, international projects, development projects, most notably Chinese ones, so we are always on the lookout for attacks against foreign nationals or also attacks against migrant workers, most notably from Punjab, where they travel from Punjab into the region, and are often targeted by such militants within the region. So I don't think, though, any sort of more attacks is off the table at this point. But also, I don't want to put too much weight on, sort of, the anti-India factor here, but it is, I think, rare to see politicians so openly talk about it, or national-level politicians, openly talk about the anti-India factor here. So I think we'll be looking out for more attacks; potentially more diplomatic sort of tensions as well.

JIMMY: Well, Awais, we'll need to pause there for today, but thanks again for your time and for keeping such a close eye on the region for us. Appreciate it, 

AWAIS: Of course, Jimmy, thanks for having me.

Japan general election

Information compiled by David Wyllie

JIMMY: Voters across Japan will elect members of the country’s House of Representatives on Sunday. That, as the country’s new prime minister seeks a fresh mandate to implement change.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called the snap election in January and dissolved the country’s parliament later that month. 

That set in motion a short campaign as she seeks to turn her personal popularity into parliamentary power. 

Takaichi, who took office in October, has surprised the country with a string of viral moments as she seeks to shake off the staid and traditional image of Japanese politics and appeal to younger voters, who have seemingly embraced her.

Now, If Takaichi secures enough seats with her coalition for a parliamentary majority, and polls suggest she will, it’ll give her wide latitude to enact reforms, including potential changes to the country’s economic policy. 

This would mark a stark reversal in fortunes for the governing LDP, which saw its previous leader resign after two major election losses. 

Following the election, one of her first priorities will be to pass a budget that was delayed by the parliamentary dissolution.

Court hearing on sedition case against Bangladesh's ousted PM Hasina

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: A Bangladeshi court will conduct a hearing over sedition charges leveled against former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on Monday.

Hasina, as you may recall, fled the country in August 2024 following weeks of large-scale protest that were violently suppressed by the country’s security forces. 

Multiple court cases have since been filed against Hasina after she fled to India, including the forthcoming sedition case as well as a corruption case that resulted in the former leader being sentenced in absentia to 10 years in prison.

Now, the sedition charges relate to allegations Hasina conspired alongside others to initiate a civil war to oust the interim government that replaced her. 

Meanwhile, the trial comes as Bangladesh prepares for high-stakes elections on Feb. 12, the first since her resignation. 

Hasina continues to cast a shadow over the election despite having fled the country, with analysts calling it the first credible vote in more than a decade after she oversaw three questionable elections.

General strike in Argentina

Information compiled by James Morgan

JIMMY: Two major Argentinian workers’ unions will strike Tuesday.

The action due to a controversial labor reform bill that will be debated in the Senate.

The organizations have criticized the proposed reform, alleging it undermines basic rights and increases the power of the employer, ultimately leading to greater insecurity in the employment market. 

Argentinian media describe the labor reform as the largest in over 50 years. 

Its proponents have argued that the legislation will provide greater legal certainty to employers and employees, with changes to severance pay policy, the labor assistance fund and vacation time.

Now, public transportation, government administration, banks, waste collection, construction and industrial services are just some of the key sectors expected to be impacted by the strike action. 

Protests are also expected throughout the country, with the largest taking place in the capital Buenos Aires. 

Thousands of people participated in the previous protest against the labor reform in December and similar numbers are expected Tuesday.

Immigration enforcement officials testify before Congress

Information compiled by Joe Veyera

JIMMY: US immigration enforcement officials are set to testify before Congress on Tuesday. 

The heads of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), Customs and Border Protection, and Citizenship and Immigration Services are slated to appear before the House Committee on Homeland Security. 

The appearance comes just weeks after a pair of fatal shootings by federal agents in Minneapolis.

The deaths of Renee Good and Alex Pretti drew widespread criticism. 

They also spurred calls to overhaul enforcement operations amid a surge initially targeting the Twin Cities and later expanded to all of Minnesota. 

Just yesterday, border czar Tom Homan announced 700 federal agents would leave the state, after what he called "significant progress" in talks with local officials to coordinate the transfer of immigration targets to federal officers from county jails. 

That still leaves more than 2,000 agents on the ground in Minnesota, well above the usual 150 permanently stationed in the state.

Now, lawmakers are likely to grill the trio on how their agents have both carried out their efforts to detain immigrants in the country without authorization, and their clashes with protesters in places like Minneapolis and Portland. 

While a brief government shutdown ended earlier this week following a narrow vote in the House, Congress now has less than two weeks to come to another deal on funding for the Department of Homeland Security. 

A funding lapse is unlikely to have significant impacts on immigration enforcement, but other functions under the DHS umbrella, including those of the Coast Guard and TSA, are expected to be disproportionately affected.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors David Wyllie, Alex Moore, James Morgan and Joe Veyera. Our interview featured editor Awais Ahmad and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe