This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

JIMMY LOVAAS, HOST:

Welcome to the Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. I’m Jimmy Lovaas.

Today is Feb. 12, 2026.

In this week’s Forecast we've got an energy crisis in Ukraine, the Munich Security Conference, Lunar New Year celebrations, former South Korean President Yoon’s sentencing, and the National Governors Association Meeting at the White House. 

You can also read about these stories and more in our weekly newsletter, which you’ll find a link to in the show notes.

Kyiv energy crisis

Interview featuring Alex Moore

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll look at the energy crisis currently facing Ukraine. For more on that, I’ve got fellow Factal editor Alex Moore. 

JIMMY: Hello, Alex.

ALEX: Hello, Jimmy. 

JIMMY: Thanks for your time today. Always happy to have you on to talk about Ukraine, but you know, especially now, considering the energy crisis. So to start, can you maybe give us a bit of a recap on what's happening?

ALEX: Yeah, so this is by no means like a new thing this winter. This has been taking place every winter since the onset of the war, dating back to the fall of 2022 and into the winter. And it's been something that Russia has done consistently ever since then, in the winter months, where they will periodically, on more or less a weekly basis or so, launch large scale bombardments targeting Ukrainian energy production, and, you know, substations, distribution networks all across the country. They've been doing that for years now, but this winter has been particularly intense due to kind of a confluence of factors, one of which just being the extreme nature in which they've been domestically mass producing one-way strike drones, Ukrainian air defense networks being degraded, and just other stuff as well. They've just been brutally successful this year at destroying Ukrainian energy, but, um, yeah. And the other big factor this winter is that Ukraine has faced just an inconceivably cold winter, with temperatures down, you know, in the minus 20s Celsius on a consistent basis. So the mixture of the success Russia has had at targeting Ukrainian energy production and distribution, as well as the extreme life-threateningly freezing temperatures, it's created, kind of, a humanitarian crisis across Ukraine, with Kyiv kind of marking the epicenter.

JIMMY: And what's the latest? There been any new developments?

ALEX: Yeah, the strike campaign kind of continues apace. At any given time there are millions of Ukrainians that are subjected to rolling power outages across the country. This, of course, goes along with heating outages, you know, stopping gas, all sorts of things like that. January saw one of the largest single months of the Ukraine war – if not the largest – with nearly 4,600 long-range projectiles, so drones, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, fired into Ukraine. And a lot of these large strike packages kind of coincided specifically with some of the coldest nights of temperatures that they've had in a long time. I mean, again, if you look at the weather in places like Kyiv or Lviv, you know, like there are certain days where you're looking at high temperatures of 1 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit. So it's really hard to put into words and comprehend just how cold it is there, and it's created, kind of, just extremely dire living situations in places like Kyiv that have had multiple thermal electric substations destroyed. So if you look at, like, you know, parts of, like, the east bank of Kyiv, those suburbs, certain buildings, even inside, you know, the temperature is approaching freezing, so people are having to do things to stay warm, like light bonfires and stuff. So it's kind of metastasized into a big humanitarian crisis. And yeah, it's not just Kyiv, like I said. I mean, the Russian strikes have degraded thermal electric plants all across the country, and in so far as they are still able to manufacture some electricity in western Ukraine, the distribution networks have just been destroyed, so there's just not much they can do about it right now.

JIMMY: Well, what kind of reactions have you seen to all this?

ALEX: Yeah, I mean, Europe, over the years, has tried to help as best they can. Countries like Germany have sent engineers to try to help out with, kind of, the restoration of some of these plants and networks that have been destroyed. Poland has, you know, carried their weight with trying to help, you know, export electricity. But again, with the grid in such, you know, tattered shape that is just patchwork at this point, and it's going to take months to fully kind of fix the electrical grid and the power generation as well as distribution. So, yeah, the humanitarian crisis is pretty stark. I mean, it's had a lot of trickle-on effects. Obviously, Ukraine is in this place where they're simultaneously a country that's at total war along a front line ranging a distance that is equivalent to, like – Chicago to New York is the length of the entirety of the front – which is, you know, one of, if not the most, active war zones in the world. But simultaneously, parts of western Ukraine are, you know, a country that's on a war footing, but not at total war. So food scarcity has become worsened in the wake of this strike campaign this winter. Schools are just totally closed. There's no – you can't send kids to school in this temperature. You know, cafes are closed, so on and so forth. So, yeah.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next then?

ALEX: Yeah. I mean, the mayor of Kyiv the other week kind of called for residents to evacuate, which 600,000 or so of them did. It's possible we could see further evacuations from cities like Kyiv. As part of the winter strike campaign, Russia has been relying a bit more on, kind of a, higher-level missiles in their arsenal, like the Zircon missile. They've been launching more from the Caspian Sea and areas of the Black Sea they can still operate naval vessels in. We've seen them launch the Oreshnik missile, the intermediate-range missile, at Lviv recently. So they're digging kind of deeper into the bag for some of these strike campaigns. And these are weapons that are extremely tough for the Ukrainians to intercept. The Ukrainians, for their part, of course, have in turn successfully waged, and we've talked about this in the podcast in the past, a strike campaign of their own targeting the Russian oil and gas industry. So we continue to see, like, very broad reporting that the Ukrainian and Russian sides could potentially agree to some sort of mutual cessation of long-range strikes on both sides. But thus far, that's something that Russia seems to have not been willing to do. So in the interim, I guess we just have to hope the weather improves there.

JIMMY: Well, Alex, as usual, this is where we'll have to pause for today, but thanks again for your time and for keeping us plugged in on what's happening in the war. Always appreciate you.

ALEX: No sweat. Thanks, Jimmy.

Munich Security Conference

Information compiled by James Morgan

JIMMY: The 62nd Munich Security Conference starts in Germany on Friday.

It comes as security in Europe looks increasingly precarious as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth year and transatlantic relations falter. 

At last year’s conference, U.S. Vice President JD Vance delivered a speech that was highly critical of European powers, alleging restrictions on free speech and “opening the floodgates” to mass migration. 

This year is expected to be no less divisive.

Over the past year, the White House has increased calls for Europe to play a greater role in ensuring its security and shown readiness to implement punitive tariffs on its traditional allies. 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio will lead the U.S. delegation this year, while more than 50 other world leaders are expected to attend.

Now, the Munich Security Report signals U.S. President Donald Trump’s “wrecking ball politics” as a growing source of tension between Europe and its traditional transatlantic partner. 

At the beginning of this year, Trump’s repeated claims that he needs Greenland for America’s security sent shockwaves through Europe. 

While that crisis appears to have de-escalated for now with Trump’s announcement of a future deal, Europe and America’s approaches to collective security continue to diverge. 

As the anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches, European powers continue to question Trump’s pursuit of peace, raising concerns over a potential peace deal that would be overly favourable to Moscow.

Lunar New Year

Information compiled by Hua Hsieh

JIMMY: Multiple Asian countries will be celebrating the start of the Year of the Horse on Tuesday.

Known as the Spring Festival in China, Seollal in Korea and Tet in Vietnam, Lunar New Year is a major holiday celebrated in parts of East and Southeast Asia. 

The dates of the holiday differ slightly each year, falling between January and February according to the lunar calendar, which is based on the cycles of the moon. 

Asian countries and the diaspora communities around the world will welcome the new year with family gatherings, assorted traditions and cultural events during this period.

Now, China’s annual travel rush during the Spring Festival, often described as the world’s biggest human migration, already started last week. 

With the extended nine-day public holiday this year, the government estimates a record high 9.5 billion trips will be made during the 40-day period around the festival.

Former South Korean President Yoon sentencing

Information compiled by Michael Archer

JIMMY: Next Thursday, a South Korean court is scheduled to rule in the insurrection case against former President Yoon Suk Yeol.

As you may recall, Yoon declared martial law in December of 2024, citing a need to protect the state from North Korea and “antistate forces.” 

Yoon was subsequently removed from office following a constitutional court decision.

That court ruled that he violated the country’s constitution by mobilizing state forces to “obstruct the exercise of legislative authority.” 

He faces several pending court cases, having already been sentenced to five years just last month. 

Now, the insurrection charge is linked to allegations that Yoon sealed off South Korea’s parliament in a bid to prevent the martial law decree from being blocked, and made orders to arrest opposition leaders. 

South Korean prosecutors have sought the death penalty for Yoon. 

Though capital punishment is legal in South Korea, the last known state execution was carried out in 1997, making it unlikely that Yoon would be executed even if he is sentenced to death. 

National Governors Association Meeting at White House

Information compiled by Alex Moore

JIMMY: The annual National Governors Association meeting starts next Thursday in Washington, D.C.

The annual event normally features governors of all U.S. states as well as commonwealth territories. 

It’s been common practice for all attendees to meet with the president in the White House. 

This year, however, will see a break from that tradition.

President Donald Trump has decided to exclude Democrats from the meeting, a decision the association has criticized. 

Now, while the White House did not provide an explicit reason for the decision, last year’s meeting featured a notable exchange in which Maine Gov. Janet Mills confronted Trump over her state’s decision not to comply with Trump’s orders targeting transgender athletes. 

The meeting comes as some Democrat-run states are moving to end local and state-level law enforcement cooperation with federal immigration enforcement.

That, setting up another confrontation with the executive branch as federal-run anti-immigrant operations continue to spread into cities.

JIMMY: As always, thank you for listening to the Factal Forecast. We publish our forward-looking podcast and newsletter each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. Please subscribe and review wherever you find your podcasts. We’d love it if you’d consider telling a friend about us.  

Today’s episode includes work from Factal editors James Morgan, Hua Hsieh, Michael Archer, and Alex Moore. Our interview featured Alex Moore and our podcast is produced and edited by me – Jimmy Lovaas. Our music comes courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

Until next time, if you have any feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed, drop us a note by emailing hello@factal.com

This transcript may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability not guaranteed. 

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Music: 'Factal Theme' courtesy of Andrew Gospe